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Rich W

Rich W
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  • Fade This Rally [View article]
    Buy the TLT on this pullback. If you were waiting for an opportunity to get in, here it is. By the way, the dividend on the TLT is more than the SPY. The Fed is NOT raising rates for years. The ten year could go to one percent. If it goes down to 115, buy more. Very strong support at 115.
    Rich W
    Jan 4 08:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Framing Yesterday's Market Move [View article]
    67% is only odds of 2 to 1. Not a lock by any means. Even if 2013 finishes higher, the market could fall 20 percent first, before going back up. Stats are fun, but nobody really knows. Every year has many different elements and factors which ultimately determine where the market finishes. And the next 80 years could show the opposite results too.
    Rich W
    Jan 3 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    Sorry, if the Nasdaq gave back 5 percent now, it would be down for the month. I meant to say it would still be up from the close of the session prior to New Years Eve.
    Rich W
    Jan 3 08:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    Bank card delinquencies fall -- that's because consumers keep rolling over their debt. Time to pay? Just do another balance transfer.

    B of A ramps up lending -- sure, all you have to do to get a loan is be able to prove that you don't need the money.

    Family Dollar's net profit stalls -- A store opened in my neighborhood recently. Not very busy. I don't know how they are even able to pay the rent. And don't be fooled by the name, they are not a discount store. They offer some "store brand" items that are cheaper than name brands, but so do many other retailers.

    After the incredible surge of the last two days, take profits. The S&P is up over 5 percent, and the Nasdaq is up 6 percent (!) It could fall 5 percent from here -- and still be up for the month.
    Rich W
    Jan 3 08:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facts Are Changing, So Should Your Investments [View article]
    I'd be careful about buying right here, after a two day surge in which the S&P is up almost 5 percent and the Nasdaq is up almost 6 percent. I'm aware that new money tends to come into the market the first few days of the year, but I remain highly skeptical that the start of 2013 will be a repeat of 2012. If I had bought on New Year's Eve, I'd take some profits here. I would also not abandon bonds. I like the TLT below 120 a lot. For one thing, the yield is more than that of the SPY. With the fed clearly having no intention of raising rates, I limited downside in treasuries. I do not see limited downside in stocks. Stocks could get ugly again very quickly.
    Rich W
    Jan 3 05:26 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    I love the TLT below 120. Take profits on stocks today. Ridiculous two day gain. Sell the news. It's not even news, for cryin out loud. Did anyone NOT expect this outcome?
    Rich W
    Jan 2 08:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite Cliff Uncertainty Evidence Supports Bullish Case [View article]
    This year the market roared higher in January and didn't stop until April.
    For 2013, I think we could see the exact opposite. The options market continues to wave a yellow flag. OTM call premiums are much cheaper than put premiums. In fact, the prices are so distorted, it may be a warning that the next big move is going to be down rather than up. There is no debating this. It might not happen, but this is what the odds are indicating.
    As far as bonds, I wouldn't abandon the TLT just yet. For one thing, it pays a better dividend than the SPY. Interest rates are not going significantly higher anytime soon. I think $115 is a floor for at least a few years, and it is good to trade. Buy when it corrects, (such as now) sell when it goes up a few bucks; then wait for it to come down again.
    Keep lowering your cost basis this way, while you get a nice dividend. You could also sell covered calls to further increase your gains.
    Rich W
    Dec 20 12:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thursday's Gold And Silver Forecast [View article]
    I believe gold trades on technicals more than anything else now.
    This could slso be strategic selling for tax purposes.
    I've been trading stocks and following the financial markets for over sixteen years, and I honestly don't know what makes gold go up or down on any given day.
    I don't think anyone really knows.
    I'm just glad I sold a couple of sterling silver plates on Ebay a few months ago.
    Dec 20 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife CEO Says U.S. 'Will Be Better When Bill Ackman Is Gone' [View article]
    Stay far away from US companies that have their headquarters in the Cayman Islands, Bermuda, etc. I have no position here and have no clue if they are fraudulent. But one has to wonder why they are based offshore --where they could play all kinds of games with their books--and why the CEO isn't threatening to sue Ackman for slander.
    Rich W
    Dec 20 11:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 To Take Out 2007 Highs Thanks To Foreign Profits? [View article]
    The options market is still signaling (or warning) that 2013 will not be a repeat of 2012. The premiums are suggesting that the next big move is much more likely to be down, not up. The first few months might be the opposite of 2012.
    Rich W
    Dec 20 09:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Resolution Of The Fiscal Cliff: Be Careful Of What You Wish For [View article]
    Did anyone hear what Boehner said today? He said the tax hikes would be the "largest in American history."
    HUH??? Not even close.
    If they're going to make the threshold one million dollars, they might as well do nothing. And as far as spending, the problem isn't spending. The problem is WASTEFUL spending.
    Good luck with that one.
    Rich W
    Dec 19 07:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Resolution Of The Fiscal Cliff: Be Careful Of What You Wish For [View article]
    Special dividends are actually not so special. The day it is paid, the underlying security drops by the same amount of the dividend, plus you have to pay capital gains tax on the dividend. You gain nothing as a shareholder. It's basically a wash. I think corp execs do it for their own benefit, most of them couldn't care less about their shareholders.
    Rich W
    Dec 19 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 10 Most Important Questions - And Predictions - For 2013 (Part 1) [View article]
    "Best in class" --is that anything like Cramer's "Best of Breed" for Best Buy when he liked it at $50?
    The bigger they are, the harder they fall.
    $500,000,000,000 market cap?
    Rich W
    Dec 19 01:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The 10 Most Important Questions - And Predictions - For 2013 (Part 1) [View article]
    Sales tax in NY is an astounding 9.25%.
    I have a new slogan--
    I DON'T LOVE NEW YORK ANYMORE.
    Rich W
    Dec 19 12:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The 10 Most Important Questions - And Predictions - For 2013 (Part 1) [View article]
    Regarding the financials, they may not collapse, but they appear fully valued again. If we go back into recession, they will fall for sure.
    Rich W
    Dec 19 12:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
974 Comments
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