jester1234

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  • That Was Quick! Our First Premium Author Hits $200,000 In Annual Revenue  [View article]
    There were plenty ... Prxi, alcs, gcvrz ...
    Apr 22, 2015. 11:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Archived GCVRZ Forum  [View instapost]
    Not sure if you caught this but,

    From the last conference call:

    Matthew O'Brien - William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division
    Okay. And then just -- that's very helpful. One more for me. I know you don't want to speculate on -- on Augment approval, but given that your sales force has been coming through getting trained on other products and INFINITY and so on, have you been engaging in any kind the activities right now, in preparation for a potential Augment approval? [indiscernible] start selling kind of next day if you were to get that approval at the end of October?

    Robert J. Palmisano - Chief Executive Officer, President and Director
    No. We haven't. I'll tell you why. Is that my expense with these PMAs, and this may be a big exception, but my experience with these PMAs is that even if we're fortunate enough to get an approvable letter, there's still things to work out with the agency that's going to take several months. They're always looking for a post-market study, a post-approval study. There may be some labeling discussions. So if we're -- if we do get this approvable status as of the end of October, it's going to be several months actually, I think, before we're in the market and that will give us time to really gear up.

    Thus: Company has zero chance of reaching milestones in wmgiz. Therefore, at a price of 2.00 you are betting on a greater than 50% chance of approval. I don't see how the position is +ev. I did not think so and I sold my position at a loss. I was actually happy to get 2.00 after once being down 75%+ in the right.

    Any recommendation regarding what to do with $alcs? This might be the worst company of all time and every time I think it might be getting better it just gets worse. Do I just end the misery?
    Sep 23, 2014. 12:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Behavioral Overreaction Makes Select Income Realty An Opportunity  [View article]
    QFT: "Best to keep away from any that RMR manages and largely controls."

    Having just lost CWH, the Portneys will not relinquish control over SIR until they're dead in the ground. Do not buy this company while the Portneys are entrenched.

    I mean, I can't wait to own a company that spurs statements like this: "Prior to their removal from CWH, RMR continually issued equity at deep discounts to intrinsic value. It was speculated (I agree with the speculation) that these equity issuances were value destroying for shareholders and were performed for the purpose of increasing RMR's paycheck which was tied to gross assets. GOV also recently issued equity at a discount to intrinsic value. In May, SIR issued more equity.

    These are merely a few of the well-documented acts of RMR's seeming disregard for shareholder value and are very likely the reason SIR has always traded at a discount to its peers despite an impressive property portfolio."

    Stay away.
    Aug 5, 2014. 02:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Feuerstein ponders the math of Cel-Sci's Multikine patient recruitment goal  [View news story]
    Feuerstein is an amazing asset to biotech investors. He has personally saved me tons of money. Take off the blinders and actually read his reports. He's not right 100% of the time, but certainly more than most. I love the fact that he is skeptical, he's one of the few that will actually challenge companies and ask tough questions. Honestly I can't figure out why there is so much hatred for the guy. He provides an amazing service . . . for free!
    Aug 1, 2014. 01:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Why Investors Should Buy General Motors On The Drop  [View article]
    I like you Chris, I think you're a valuable member to the forum. My only issue with you is that you seam overeager to point out your winners and completely disregard your losers or comment how much they are up from some specific time period chosen by you.

    This comment today irked me a bit:

    Wright Medical Continuing To Gain Share In A Growth Market [View article]
    I invested in their Augment® Bone Graft Value Right in early March. So far +>50%: http://bit.ly/1iGkw59

    I don't have the time to go back and find the prior comments but you were pushing the cvr's: wmgiz, gcvrz ,and celgz back when wmgiz was in the 2s and gcvrz was in the high 1s (celgz was big winner). The fact that you started the motif investing in March and "rebought" at the lows is meaningless for all those that followed you in at higher prices. You also fail to mention your misses like $alcs and $prxi, while always letting everyone know when you get one correctly. The lack of transparency bothers me a bit. As such an active member, it would be helpful to know occasionally what you are doing with your losers and letting others to know when it might be time to bail. I have learned a lot from your blog and comments and I recognize that its up to the individual investor to do their own due diligence so I don't mean to sound overly critical, but I think it's a fair criticism.
    Jun 25, 2014. 04:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum Archive   [View instapost]
    Describing this as an opportunity is irresponsible, imo. You know as well as anyone that the risk of a negative panel increased many times over. The selling is not necessarily overdone and many I've talked that know the process well describe these documents as the kiss of death. I got kicked in the teeth when i bought more on a similar "opportunity" after aveo's briefing documents were released. A stock, if i remember correctly, you were long as well. The fact that the fda doesnt like the study design scares the living hell out of me. Its the one thing they dont seem to budge on, ever. And they especially dont budge when they basically told sny to not run an unblinded study prior to phase 3.

    So the guy two below doubled his position? Is it ethical to champion that. Anyone adding now has to be aware the chances of approval have gone from a near certainty to < 20% once those briefing docs were released. I think an argument could be made that the cvr is actually overpriced.
    Nov 9, 2013. 10:15 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Why Sanofi Rights (GCVRZ) Could Return 50% This Year  [View article]
    I own this cvr however investors should be fully aware of the risk involved. If for some reason lemtrada is not approved (and ive learned the hard way the fda is extremely critical of every potential drug regardless of approval in other markets or the benefits) expect this to lose around 80-90% value immediately. These trade at a discount for a reason, the risk of complete loss is very possible unlike most of your holdings in your portfolio and many investors are uncomfortable with that type of risk. Read some of chris' links re kelly criterion in assessing what is the optimal sizing of your investment. See wmgiz for example of a cvr where approval did not go as expected. I also want to take a moment to thank chris for sharing his thoughts with our community. As a young investor ive learned so much by reading his comments, blogs, articles and links everyday. Ive also made a couple dollars as well!
    Sep 21, 2013. 04:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Why Sanofi Rights (GCVRZ) Could Return 50% This Year  [View article]
    One more thing, some expect that approval will come with a black box warning which would negatively affect sales (and milestone payments obv.)
    Sep 21, 2013. 04:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • State Of Bliss  [View instapost]
    I wanted to thank you for this blog entry. Great stuff.
    Aug 29, 2013. 05:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2013 Contrarian ETF Portfolio  [View article]
    Two winners in the bunch. Negative overall.
    Aug 22, 2013. 09:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wright Medical (WMGI +3.2%) rises on an upgrade to Buy from Neutral (price target, $32) at Summer Street. "Are you pioneers in this space?" analyst Mark Landy asked management on the latest CC, referring to WMGI's new Wright Direct program, "or are you see[ing] competitors [trying to] put a wedge between the salesperson and the physician?" "No, we haven't seen competitors do this … in orthopedics," CEO Robert Palmisano said, adding that "It's very important [for] institutions [to ask] 'how can we get more cost out?'" (transcript[View news story]
    Do you still own it? I do (unfortunately) and am wondering if you are abandoning ship or holding on for the slim hope of winning an appeal or wmgi going through another trial. I think the odds of either are pretty small personally and may just take the .50 or so.
    Aug 9, 2013. 02:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Portnoys do it again. After Hospitality Properties Trust (HPT) director Bill Lamkin fails to win enough votes to stay on and resigns, the board immediately reappoints him, calling his defeat a result of CalPERS' activism. HPT is managed by Portnoy-controlled Reit Management & Research, the operator of CommonWealth REIT (CWH). Yesterday: Tragicomedy at CommonWealth.  [View news story]
    Chris do you own this stock?
    May 19, 2013. 06:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Affymax: Swift Actions Seen On Former Biotech Darling  [View article]
    or they could just let them go bankrupt and spend zero. your money is gone.
    Mar 19, 2013. 11:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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