JamesJoyce

JamesJoyce
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  • AIG Strategic Plan Won't Satisfy The Activists  [View article]
    "While many investors assume that AIG stock is cheap because it sells at a big discount to its book value, the discount reflects the lower than average ROE."

    Yes indeed. The discount to book value implied potential, but over some years AIG just hasn't been able to produce better returns. Which means book value is inflated, and should be written down. Assets that don't earn aren't assets. (Else management should change, but I think book value is the problem. The managers are probably as good as the next lot.)
    Jan 28, 2016. 03:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG: That Was Not Good Enough  [View article]
    There will only be one winner in all this.

    Shareholders.
    Jan 27, 2016. 03:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Bank Of America Discounting Another Loan Crisis Like 2008?  [View article]
    What matters with banks is earnings. Book values are tosh. It's like saying I'm wealthy because I own all the gold on Mars.

    Banks find new ways to reward themselves first, and then sputter out measly shareholder earnings due to a forever stream of one-off events that continuously torpedo their bottom line.

    Mortgages, fraud, fines, now energy companies, tomorrow they'll be exposed somewhere else.
    Jan 26, 2016. 05:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Is Dumped By Fidelity; Sell This Puppy Now  [View article]
    Touché!
    Jan 9, 2016. 09:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Is Dumped By Fidelity; Sell This Puppy Now  [View article]
    If one and a half pieces of news are enough to turf you out of a shareholding (amidst a sell off) then you really ought not to be buying shares at all.
    Jan 8, 2016. 09:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warren Buffett's New REIT Investment  [View article]
    I wonder how many more REIT Sears can create, given its many hundreds of locations. Seritage II, III, IV?
    Dec 12, 2015. 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warren Buffett's New REIT Investment  [View article]
    "97percent of Sears and Kmart locations"

    I think it's much less than that, unless you mean some other metric?
    Dec 12, 2015. 05:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Finally Time To Buy IBM?  [View article]
    It's a race to the bottom. IBM stands a fair chance of buying back every last share by the exact time it's CEO sacks its final employee (thereby pocketing a handsome exit bonus). Exit the last fragment of 1960s corporate America.
    Nov 19, 2015. 02:58 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Finally Time To Buy IBM?  [View article]
    R&D as a line item in corporate accounts can include a whole bunch of crap. It's not what you spend, it's what you come up with.
    Nov 19, 2015. 02:55 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Buying Back Shares Like There's No Tomorrow  [View article]
    Probably explains the slump.
    Nov 11, 2015. 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG Warrant Valuation With An Icahn Scenario  [View article]
    I think, when forecasting, folk always assume a regression to the mean, and never plonk a crisis into their forecast.

    Folk have been assuming AIG would snap back to better ROE for quite a while, but stuff keeps happening and it never quite gets there.

    If any company has demonstrated an inclination to get into deep dodos.. then it's AIG, so let's assume a hiccup or two.

    SO, can I compliment you on the article, especially the point about DTA impact on ROE, and encourage you to plonk in some more moderate numbers for ROE.

    Cheers.
    Nov 11, 2015. 11:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Buying Back Shares Like There's No Tomorrow  [View article]
    Nokia had a huge r&d budget, right up until the apple phone. Great durable hardware, amazing class leading camera, superb radio chips, elegant keyboards, cool variety of models...

    All blown out of the water by Apple's better operating system and adequate hardware.

    It's not how much you spend its what you spend it on (and how well you sell it).

    Cars aren't hugely profitable..they suck up huge amounts of retooling and r&d every year, just in order to stay in the game. And there is over capacity. And car industry is very political.

    I'm not pinning my p/e multiple expansion hopes on Apple cars.
    Nov 9, 2015. 08:15 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buffett Got No Investor Love From Keystone Decision  [View article]
    What has Buffett's charity gift got to to do with his investment? You lost me there.
    Nov 7, 2015. 02:04 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG lower after noisy quarter; takes restructuring charge  [View news story]
    As the buybacks lift earnings per share, book value per share, and present the chance of higher dividends per share I'm seeing the 7percent book value per share YOY increase as the handy outcome of recent buybacks.

    Still the core business needs better Return on Assets, otherwise AIG shares sell at a discount to book value.

    Should it invest in business efficiency instead of buybacks? It sort of has this quarter, too, but Carl is right to focus in on the weak return on assets. AIG can't hide from that criticism and needs to have a stronger response than the decidedly wimpy noises from Peter Hancock (although he was muted by imminent earnings release).

    I think AIG will break up. I regret when they rebranded the separate operating divisions as AIG again.

    The late Benmosche tried to paint the SIFI oversight regime as a good thing, but he got fed up with it pretty quickly I think, and made some comments about the wackiness of it.

    It's also illogical to prefer SIFI status if you can operate more safely as seperate insurance businesses without SIFI overhead...safety is supposed to be in the DNA of insurance companies.

    For the foreseeable future being big hurts.
    Nov 3, 2015. 04:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG may be activist target, but forget about the big banks  [View news story]
    Nothing is off the table.
    Oct 28, 2015. 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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