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JamesJoyce

JamesJoyce
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  • 3 Reasons Why BP's Dividend Is Safe [View article]
    The legal costs are one off items.

    They overhang a stock price for a long period in advance.

    Then take a chunk out of earnings for a very short period.

    Then stock bounces back.

    This sequence prevails for roughly the period of time that is just too long for stock traders to hang around in the stock, meaning the stockholders onboard for the bounce back are the value investor types.

    I see BP as a gentler version of BAC ..we're at 2011, with falls softened by the extraordinary chunky dividend, and the deep seated profitability of the underlying business.

    12 percent dividend over 24 months...plus buybacks...
    Dec 15, 2014. 04:24 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Why BP's Dividend Is Safe [View article]
    Great riposte.
    Dec 15, 2014. 04:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Sears Holdings Provides Q3 2014 Update And Explores REIT Transaction [View article]
    Sears needs a few more Primark deals and anything else that demonstrably repurposes its Real Estate. It will be sustainable when it has somewhere positive to deploy the new capital, rather than soaking up the losses.
    Nov 9, 2014. 05:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: An Investment That Cannot Lose, Maybe [View article]
    About this book value obsession...

    If a so called asset isn't earning anything it's not worth anything. As Buffett reminded us a while back, banks are about earnings. If BAC isn't earning much then the assets it has (it's book value) are overstated.

    Those investing thesis that get hung-up on book value are weakened accordingly.

    Accounting rules were changed in the middle of the crisis to allow banks to avoid marking down the assets, in favour of fuzzy justifying spreadsheets.

    In the end the banks have to liquidate those assets / write them off. Meantime investors will depend on what the bank is actually earning from the other performing assets.

    So I take no comfort from book value, let's hear mainly about the earnings drivers.

    That said I'd like to know if there are major categories of worthless assets that are being revalued having begun to generate an appreciable income. CITI holdings seems to be the place to look for those...
    Nov 8, 2014. 08:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: An Investment That Cannot Lose, Maybe [View article]
    If it's not at least long then you are doomed.
    Nov 6, 2014. 08:59 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Extremely Dangerous Gamble Of Shorting Sears Holdings [View article]
    Short squeezes are hard to predict. Over the next year or so Mr.Market will oscillate between deriding Sears as a fail, or grudgingly accepting that Sears will endure, somehow. Events matter too; you need relatively unexpected, better than expected, strategic developments to really catch out the shorts.

    Any squeezed price peaks will be hard to time, or cash in on but I'd assume the price spikes would be far north of $50 as price will simply reflect the shortage of stock (and have little to do with market cap).
    Oct 15, 2014. 06:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Does The Wells Fargo Whisper Number Indicate Investor Confidence? [View article]
    "40 percent positive surprise history"... "Whisper number" ... What? I just know Warren Buffett made all those calculations when he bought WFC.


    Still, someone has to feed the brokers their commissions.
    Oct 14, 2014. 07:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Is America's Least Favorite Bank [View article]
    Of course the volume of complaints might have something to do with ...the number of customers?
    Oct 11, 2014. 04:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ExxonMobil ends cooperation with Rosneft on Arctic oil project [View news story]
    Over the years almost every major oil company has walked away from Russian arctic oil tie-ups.
    Sep 29, 2014. 04:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears Will Have More Negative Media Coverage In The Next 6 Months And Stock Price May Be Punished Further [View article]
    Wonder why the Berkowitz interview published last week made absolutely no mention of Sears?
    Sep 29, 2014. 03:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears CFO Setting The Record Straight: 'Just The Facts' [View article]
    Thank you, great article. I agree the rate is the same as Penny, and the CFO's comparison is generous.

    It would be reassuring to see Eddie (and Bruce Berkowitz) buying up the common, and more obvious progress from Sears repurposing its real estate.

    If the economy is on the up, the retailing will stabilise, the value and opportunities of the real estate will rise. Sears has probably got enough property to trade until then.
    Sep 21, 2014. 06:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Bank Of America Be A Core Holding Now? [View article]
    Given that the broad scale of the major legal settlements came into view some years ago, and will have been significantly provided for, and are not recurring, why on earth are people rushing to recommend BAC now, why not two years ago?

    You've missed a 60percent rise for something you knew would take place?

    Now the well telegraphed events have taken place you recommend the shares?
    Sep 21, 2014. 03:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears' Lender Of Last Resort May Spell Trouble [View article]
    Berkowitz has a position in the Sears bonds I think? That'll be the key to protecting his investment if the common is mauled.
    Sep 20, 2014. 03:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears' Lender Of Last Resort May Spell Trouble [View article]
    The short loan term with an event at end of December is interesting. It puts quite a squeeze on Sears, given importance of the holiday sales period. On 31st December Eddie and Sears will know how well they did and what chance they have of meeting the loan terms. So Sears may as well face facts on that date. It'll be a rock n roll stock price through that period.
    Sep 20, 2014. 03:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears' Lender Of Last Resort May Spell Trouble [View article]
    It's got be hard for Sears to negotiate fair loan terms when it's back is to the wall AND it's boss is on both sides of the negotiation.

    One wonders if Berkowitz was involved in those talks? His view is that Sears has plenty of value but if Sears boss transfers chunks of the value to himself, before Sears can realise it, then he's loosing out.

    MSFs point that Eddie is self defeating, doesn't apply if the price Eddie gets the stores for is low.

    Eddie gets to own Sears, privately, and all the ordinary shareholders end up with is 'the last scruffiest store.'

    Sep 19, 2014. 05:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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