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  • Is It Finally Time To Buy IBM? [View article]
    It's a race to the bottom. IBM stands a fair chance of buying back every last share by the exact time it's CEO sacks its final employee (thereby pocketing a handsome exit bonus). Exit the last fragment of 1960s corporate America.
    Nov 19, 2015. 02:58 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Finally Time To Buy IBM? [View article]
    R&D as a line item in corporate accounts can include a whole bunch of crap. It's not what you spend, it's what you come up with.
    Nov 19, 2015. 02:55 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Buying Back Shares Like There's No Tomorrow [View article]
    Probably explains the slump.
    Nov 11, 2015. 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG Warrant Valuation With An Icahn Scenario [View article]
    I think, when forecasting, folk always assume a regression to the mean, and never plonk a crisis into their forecast.

    Folk have been assuming AIG would snap back to better ROE for quite a while, but stuff keeps happening and it never quite gets there.

    If any company has demonstrated an inclination to get into deep dodos.. then it's AIG, so let's assume a hiccup or two.

    SO, can I compliment you on the article, especially the point about DTA impact on ROE, and encourage you to plonk in some more moderate numbers for ROE.

    Nov 11, 2015. 11:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Buying Back Shares Like There's No Tomorrow [View article]
    Nokia had a huge r&d budget, right up until the apple phone. Great durable hardware, amazing class leading camera, superb radio chips, elegant keyboards, cool variety of models...

    All blown out of the water by Apple's better operating system and adequate hardware.

    It's not how much you spend its what you spend it on (and how well you sell it).

    Cars aren't hugely profitable..they suck up huge amounts of retooling and r&d every year, just in order to stay in the game. And there is over capacity. And car industry is very political.

    I'm not pinning my p/e multiple expansion hopes on Apple cars.
    Nov 9, 2015. 08:15 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buffett Got No Investor Love From Keystone Decision [View article]
    What has Buffett's charity gift got to to do with his investment? You lost me there.
    Nov 7, 2015. 02:04 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG lower after noisy quarter; takes restructuring charge [View news story]
    As the buybacks lift earnings per share, book value per share, and present the chance of higher dividends per share I'm seeing the 7percent book value per share YOY increase as the handy outcome of recent buybacks.

    Still the core business needs better Return on Assets, otherwise AIG shares sell at a discount to book value.

    Should it invest in business efficiency instead of buybacks? It sort of has this quarter, too, but Carl is right to focus in on the weak return on assets. AIG can't hide from that criticism and needs to have a stronger response than the decidedly wimpy noises from Peter Hancock (although he was muted by imminent earnings release).

    I think AIG will break up. I regret when they rebranded the separate operating divisions as AIG again.

    The late Benmosche tried to paint the SIFI oversight regime as a good thing, but he got fed up with it pretty quickly I think, and made some comments about the wackiness of it.

    It's also illogical to prefer SIFI status if you can operate more safely as seperate insurance businesses without SIFI is supposed to be in the DNA of insurance companies.

    For the foreseeable future being big hurts.
    Nov 3, 2015. 04:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG may be activist target, but forget about the big banks [View news story]
    Nothing is off the table.
    Oct 28, 2015. 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan adopts clawback disclosure, proxy access [View news story]
    What is it that makes analysts, TV folk and investors treat a CEO like a God, almost beyond criticism, even though commonsense tells us that if he were to fall under a bus another CEO would be found, just as adequate.

    And why do we pay these top of the pile executives such extraordinary amounts?

    They're replaceable, there is a long queue of wannabe CEO just itching to get their hands on the top job. Why do we treat the incumbents like they're founders or extraordinary?
    Oct 27, 2015. 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America A Warrants: Return Expectations [View article]
    Nice analysis. Mr market can indeed be quite excitable, and globally things are still out of shape, distorted and continue to be 'uncertain' at best. On the other hand Mr market loves banks if he sees interest rates rising, and their NIM recovering.

    BAC warrant buyers are on a twisty path, that runs very close to the cliff.

    Of course there are always other choices to consider.. AIG warrants for example. They seem safer somehow, slightly less exposed to interest rate policy, the business slightly more in the hands of its managers.
    Oct 20, 2015. 04:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will BP Cut Its Dividend? [View article]
    Yup exactly. They sold before the oil price went down. Next step is collect assets whilst the oil price is down. The timing is superb.
    Sep 26, 2015. 05:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Not: Why The Royal Dutch Shell Dividend Won't Be Cut [View article]
    Yes a really good article. A good read. I'm interested in the potential upcoming shake out, if Saudi production war continues and prices fall further. Will there be a period of consolidation where failing oil producers are picked up at fire sale prices?

    It would be nice to think Shell's gearing can give it some fire power in the next year or two?
    Sep 15, 2015. 04:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG: Let's Be Real Here, Q2'15 Positives Outweigh The Negatives By A Mile [View article]
    Even though operating performance is lack lustre, the shares are cheap, and so the returns to those prepared to buy them at this price are quite fair. aig itself is buying these shares, again a good thing for other shareholders.

    Were the P&C business/combined ratio to improve noticeably (and the company has made some serious investments in its analysis and IT infrastructure, and theoretically newer business should displace older less profitable policies over time) then there should be an excellent share price uptick. But those operating improvements are hard won.

    So long as the share price means you can buy $80 dollars of operating assets for the price of $62 then it still means surely they're a good buy.
    Aug 6, 2015. 04:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Why BP's Dividend Is Safe [View article]
    The legal costs are one off items.

    They overhang a stock price for a long period in advance.

    Then take a chunk out of earnings for a very short period.

    Then stock bounces back.

    This sequence prevails for roughly the period of time that is just too long for stock traders to hang around in the stock, meaning the stockholders onboard for the bounce back are the value investor types.

    I see BP as a gentler version of BAC ..we're at 2011, with falls softened by the extraordinary chunky dividend, and the deep seated profitability of the underlying business.

    12 percent dividend over 24 buybacks...
    Dec 15, 2014. 04:24 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Why BP's Dividend Is Safe [View article]
    Great riposte.
    Dec 15, 2014. 04:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment