Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View JamesJoyce's Comments BY TICKER:

  • AIG Warrant Valuation With An Icahn Scenario [View article]
    I think, when forecasting, folk always assume a regression to the mean, and never plonk a crisis into their forecast.

    Folk have been assuming AIG would snap back to better ROE for quite a while, but stuff keeps happening and it never quite gets there.

    If any company has demonstrated an inclination to get into deep dodos.. then it's AIG, so let's assume a hiccup or two.

    SO, can I compliment you on the article, especially the point about DTA impact on ROE, and encourage you to plonk in some more moderate numbers for ROE.

    Nov 11, 2015. 11:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG: Let's Be Real Here, Q2'15 Positives Outweigh The Negatives By A Mile [View article]
    Even though operating performance is lack lustre, the shares are cheap, and so the returns to those prepared to buy them at this price are quite fair. aig itself is buying these shares, again a good thing for other shareholders.

    Were the P&C business/combined ratio to improve noticeably (and the company has made some serious investments in its analysis and IT infrastructure, and theoretically newer business should displace older less profitable policies over time) then there should be an excellent share price uptick. But those operating improvements are hard won.

    So long as the share price means you can buy $80 dollars of operating assets for the price of $62 then it still means surely they're a good buy.
    Aug 6, 2015. 04:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG Earnings Preview: Messy Report Ahead [View article]
    Great summary. Their combined ratio presumably picks up underwriting from earlier times. It would be good if they were to illustrate the changing quality of their book...and investors could more comfortably anticipate the improving ratio.
    Jul 28, 2014. 04:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Chapter For AIG [View article]
    I'd like to see more cash devoted to managing its debt, lock in lower rates ahead of a rate spike. If indeed 40 percent of its existing debt got taken on during the worst of times, then whenever AIG can it ought to restructure that.
    Jun 21, 2014. 05:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG Warrants Or AIG Common Shares? An Update On The Math [View article]
    Very good article Benjamin. Spot on.
    Jun 5, 2014. 06:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG Is Expensive At Any Price [View article]
    One thing this article did was try to challenge the love thats been pouring out for AIG. Thats a good thing for AIG appraisers. Arguably it is akin to Buffett looking for a bear to challenge BRK at its own shareholders meeting.

    Speaking of which, Buffett's observation about the danger of insurance company's wasting legacy bond portfolios seems relevant to AIG. What should it be pushing into?
    Mar 28, 2013. 07:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
More on AIG by JamesJoyce