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  • - ExactTarget Is Fueling Growth [View article]
    Ironically the $500m in stock options is a trivial cost to shareholders given the ridiculous multiple the share trades at.
    Give the stock a generous 4x sales (in line with far superior cash generators like Microsoft) and the dilution would be 3% per year.
    With negative net asset value and zero profit, if employees balked at taking options instead of cash there is not enough cash-flow to pay them.
    Nov 20, 2013. 07:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Charade Continues With Recent Acquisition [View article]
    Two points
    1. What is the DCF value of these annuity contracts - with such a low cost of capital you never recover the value of the upfront losses on a DCF basis.
    2. When exactly are you expecting profits to kick in - this is not a start-up, its been around for ages, turns over over $3bn at a 78% margin, doesn't even account for $500m in costs, and still makes a loss. Am I missing something?
    Jun 6, 2013. 03:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • (CRM) purchases email marketing firm ExactTarget (ET) for $33.75/share in cash, a total transaction value of about $2.5B. expects the purchase to reduce FY14 non-GAAP EPS by about $0.16. Assuming a late Q2 close, new EPS guidance for Q2 FY14 is $0.06-$0.07, and for FY14 of $0.31-$0.33 on revenue of $3.955B-$4B. ET +51.8% to $33.54 premarket, CRM +3.3%. CC at 8 ET. (PR[View news story]
    Perfect fit - another loss making business on an insane multiple to sales. Not sure where the cash is coming from - balance sheet will start to look as fragile as GAAP P&L
    Jun 4, 2013. 08:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons To Short Salesforce After Q1 FY14 [View article]
    It will be a real mess if the share price does fall to a realistic level as the dilution from share based payments has been kept to 6% per annum due to sky high valuation. If they have to pay $400m to $500m (which they can't realistically pay in cash for any length of time by the way,) in a debased currency the dilution could be enormous. That's assuming staff will accept a depreciating currency as payment.
    So it is a company that is geared to its own share price.
    May 29, 2013. 09:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Or BlackBerry, Who Dies First? [View article]
    I'm a 48 year old luddite - I've a Nokia 920 and found it no effort at all
    May 24, 2013. 11:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Or BlackBerry, Who Dies First? [View article]
    Have you used the Lumia 920? Its fantastic
    May 24, 2013. 11:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment