Josh Young's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/739665/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1432551/comments?source=feed#comment-19051351 19051351 Mon, 20 May 2013 20:31:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1432551/comments?source=feed#comment-19051141 19051141 Mon, 20 May 2013 20:26:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1432551/comments?source=feed#comment-19033411 19033411 Mon, 20 May 2013 13:03:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1432551/comments?source=feed#comment-19018461 19018461 Mon, 20 May 2013 03:59:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1432551/comments?source=feed#comment-19013641 19013641 Sun, 19 May 2013 22:20:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1432551/comments?source=feed#comment-18963211 18963211
2P is tough for GST, I don't think GST discloses it, and it just shot up through the roof with the recent Hunton acquisition. If they measured it like the Canadian companies that do disclose 2P reserves, it would likely be in the range of $1 billion (very rough estimate), versus a current ~$500 mm enterprise value.]]> Fri, 17 May 2013 17:14:24 -0400
2P is tough for GST, I don't think GST discloses it, and it just shot up through the roof with the recent Hunton acquisition. If they measured it like the Canadian companies that do disclose 2P reserves, it would likely be in the range of $1 billion (very rough estimate), versus a current ~$500 mm enterprise value.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1432551/comments?source=feed#comment-18947661 18947661 http://seekingalpha.co...

I think Gastar is a cleaner story - the balance sheet is simpler, production is growing rapidly, and it is undervalued compared to its peers in the Marcellus. The Hunton horizontal redevelopment makes sense, and it looks like results are economically superior to the Mississippian.]]> Fri, 17 May 2013 12:03:05 -0400 http://seekingalpha.co...

I think Gastar is a cleaner story - the balance sheet is simpler, production is growing rapidly, and it is undervalued compared to its peers in the Marcellus. The Hunton horizontal redevelopment makes sense, and it looks like results are economically superior to the Mississippian.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1432551/comments?source=feed#comment-18945161 18945161 Fri, 17 May 2013 11:17:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1432551/comments?source=feed#comment-18825212 18825212
I got an email today after this article was published from a smart, successful investment analyst who has a position in GST that he started building at 80 cents a share. He still has a very large position, and he suggested that GST may actually hit $90 million in EBITDA in 2013, and exit 2013 at a substantially higher run-rate. If that happens, GST may be one of the best performing energy stocks this year.]]> Tue, 14 May 2013 17:27:31 -0400
I got an email today after this article was published from a smart, successful investment analyst who has a position in GST that he started building at 80 cents a share. He still has a very large position, and he suggested that GST may actually hit $90 million in EBITDA in 2013, and exit 2013 at a substantially higher run-rate. If that happens, GST may be one of the best performing energy stocks this year.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1432551/comments?source=feed#comment-18819591 18819591 Tue, 14 May 2013 14:36:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1428431/comments?source=feed#comment-18817341 18817341 Tue, 14 May 2013 13:52:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1413441/comments?source=feed#comment-18740021 18740021 Sun, 12 May 2013 15:40:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1396911/comments?source=feed#comment-18711691 18711691 Sat, 11 May 2013 12:26:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1396911/comments?source=feed#comment-18679321 18679321 Fri, 10 May 2013 12:35:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1413441/comments?source=feed#comment-18634551 18634551 Thu, 09 May 2013 13:50:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1295461/comments?source=feed#comment-18594151 18594151
To my knowledge, the weather predictions were inaccurate, there has not been significant flooding. However, the point about valuations and production disruptions has been accurate, despite WTI oil at almost $100/barrel, KOG and TPLM are down since the article, driven to a certain extent by production disappointments, partly driven by weather / road access.]]> Wed, 08 May 2013 16:09:44 -0400
To my knowledge, the weather predictions were inaccurate, there has not been significant flooding. However, the point about valuations and production disruptions has been accurate, despite WTI oil at almost $100/barrel, KOG and TPLM are down since the article, driven to a certain extent by production disappointments, partly driven by weather / road access.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1396911/comments?source=feed#comment-18593181 18593181 Wed, 08 May 2013 15:51:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1396911/comments?source=feed#comment-18546201 18546201 Tue, 07 May 2013 14:22:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1396911/comments?source=feed#comment-18546151 18546151
HK's numbers look like they will come down more. I don't know how one can accurately model wells in exploratory plays, sounds like a good way to end up being "precisely wrong".]]> Tue, 07 May 2013 14:20:40 -0400
HK's numbers look like they will come down more. I don't know how one can accurately model wells in exploratory plays, sounds like a good way to end up being "precisely wrong".]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1396911/comments?source=feed#comment-18536071 18536071
In other news, GST announced a $200 mm notes offering, the stock is up 6% so far and could reprice further upon successful completion of an offering.]]> Tue, 07 May 2013 11:13:29 -0400
In other news, GST announced a $200 mm notes offering, the stock is up 6% so far and could reprice further upon successful completion of an offering.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1396911/comments?source=feed#comment-18496251 18496251 Mon, 06 May 2013 12:18:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1396911/comments?source=feed#comment-18423171 18423171 Fri, 03 May 2013 17:49:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1396911/comments?source=feed#comment-18419821 18419821
Here are my thoughts: Q1 was $14 mm. Production is growing substantially in Q2 and it sounds like it will stay flat in Q3. Q4 is up in the air, depending on Mid-Con results, but probably down from Q2/Q3 and up from Q1/. Q1 run-rate is ~$56 mm, Q2 closer to ~$70mm. So $60mm is likely a low estimate, could end up more like $65mm, or higher if there is more success in the Mid-Con.

Compared to any of the other Marcellus players, GST is trading at an absurdly low multiple. 9x seems like a reasonable target, considering the comps range 12-20x, which could get GST to a $6+ stock with $60 mm 2013 Ebitda.]]> Fri, 03 May 2013 16:08:15 -0400
Here are my thoughts: Q1 was $14 mm. Production is growing substantially in Q2 and it sounds like it will stay flat in Q3. Q4 is up in the air, depending on Mid-Con results, but probably down from Q2/Q3 and up from Q1/. Q1 run-rate is ~$56 mm, Q2 closer to ~$70mm. So $60mm is likely a low estimate, could end up more like $65mm, or higher if there is more success in the Mid-Con.

Compared to any of the other Marcellus players, GST is trading at an absurdly low multiple. 9x seems like a reasonable target, considering the comps range 12-20x, which could get GST to a $6+ stock with $60 mm 2013 Ebitda.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1399251/comments?source=feed#comment-18412431 18412431 http://seekingalpha.co...]]> Fri, 03 May 2013 13:44:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.co...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1396911/comments?source=feed#comment-18391351 18391351 Fri, 03 May 2013 02:14:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1376431/comments?source=feed#comment-18379321 18379321 Thu, 02 May 2013 18:13:05 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1376431/comments?source=feed#comment-18152651 18152651 Fri, 26 Apr 2013 17:27:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1376651/comments?source=feed#comment-18147911 18147911 Fri, 26 Apr 2013 15:29:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1376651/comments?source=feed#comment-18145301 18145301 Fri, 26 Apr 2013 14:49:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1376651/comments?source=feed#comment-18142671 18142671 Fri, 26 Apr 2013 14:11:11 -0400