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neobliviscar

neobliviscar
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  • I Feel Like A Thief Buying IBM At Today's Low Valuation [View article]
    I write it in Sarasota on Thursday. Chuck up in Tampa web publishes it on Friday. In all fairness, don't know how long it took SA to get this article up. Besides, quite sure Chuck doesn't read my stuff.

    I may not particularly like the author, but do consistently agree with many of his calls and timing. A measure of his track record would show him to be one of the most dependable. He has the bad habit of publishing while I am accumulating a position in something, and many more people read his stuff than mine. Chattanooga Choo-Choo Chuck chugging away, pulling a lot of weight, often before I've fully loaded my position.
    Aug 8 08:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Wealthy Chinese Investors Are Piling On U.S. Properties This Year [View instapost]
    All in NY and CA, where they can expect to pay the highest taxes. None in FL, where taxes are lowest and the Russians and Brazilians have been closed out by current turmoil.

    Interesting. Not smart, but certainly explains why the reflations are where they are. Same goes for Vancouver and New Zealand.
    Aug 1 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Starts Plunge Due To Horrific Data From The South [View article]
    Florida: A bit shocked by the weather this summer. Mildest summer we've had in decades. Had the house open several days here in July and gone swimming of the ocean bay dock mid day. 4th of July was lovely, trumping our usual festivities in Manhattan and Jersey City/Liberty State Park.

    In April we said we'd head north when we got 3 consecutive days of >= 90 high temp weather. At this rate, don't know if we will be back in NYC at all.
    Post Sandy, the whole FIDI area seemed in permafunk.
    NO idea as to why the crappy numbers in the South. Most everyone here seems on extended vacation. Our "off-season" and its literally the nicest I can remember in decades.
    Jul 17 09:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Updating My Opinion [View instapost]
    Love it. Thanks for the read.
    Jul 16 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Responding To The Bad News On Coach [View instapost]
    Tom- I hear you and often agree with you. It was only because one of our inhouse people made me go look and think about things that we shorted at $48 w/ puts selling the $53ish calls to pay for it. Heck of a profitable trade, and we covered wayyyyy too early.

    The problem is not the flashy young trendy they were doing for a while, which kinda worked. The problem is the Trashy TJMax or Target grade Cowboy Saddlebag meets Steampunk. They will have 1 to 2 quarters of horrid sales, and asian fashionista clans will scorn them for a few years.

    Pull pin and throw grenade. Not pull grenade and through pin. Your rollback to 2016 might be a heck of a trade, but it could be uGlY for a while. Too much risk to reward at this point.

    Ne'O
    Jun 20 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apocalypse Later [View article]
    Always with the excellent articles. Jeez you make me feel lazy. Go to a BBQ and have some fun next weekend, so I don't need come in on a Monday and read something better than I could have written.
    Jun 16 10:02 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks: Can Teavana Conquer The American Tea Market? [View article]
    Tri,

    Sitting here in Florida, drinking iced tea _*dry*_ as we call it. Flavored water. Southern born and raised across a few southern states, but have lived, studied, and worked abroad both in Europe and in Asia. Very knowledgeable about coffee from personal consumption, work in Europe, biochemistry studies, economics, etc.
    Less knowledgeable about tea, though a drank fair bit in Japan and Korea.

    If my older generation and even my parent's Old Farte generation can and is making the switch to higher end teas- then SBUX is on to something. I drink my choice of fine green or russian black [morning or blend] in morning or evening for pleasure and some alertness. The cheap stuff when simply thirsty during the hot day or to wash down lunch. It is a mistake to compare Lipton/Louisian tea to what SBUX is trying to do.

    Still love that rich cup of dark roast coffee every other day, but have gone to the tea side of the equation. For our fund, I had SBUX as a moderate accumulate below $70. Bit pricey here, but I must say the Teavana prospects are a large part of why we even look at SBUX and revamped our model a few months ago.

    Ps. Don't tell the Brits that they won't like warm tea. Just the rest of us are catching up now.

    Ne'O
    Jun 4 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iRobot Corp.: About To Short-Circuit [View article]
    Agree with OptionSexpert.
    Buy $30. Sell $40.
    May 23 09:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iRobot Corp.: About To Short-Circuit [View article]
    A bit too much Jimmy.... you're flogging a better off dead horse.

    The consensus seems to be that it is a house of cards article. The author and supposed hedge fund involved do not appear to have replied to any comments. Short of the 0.001% chance of the SEC magically intervening here, we will never know whether the author was just publishing into his short covering. Here he may look foolish or a market manipulator, but he is probably counting his money at the prime broker.
    May 22 10:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • iRobot Corp.: About To Short-Circuit [View article]
    We had noticed someone building a decent sized short position in this stock, pushing this down to decent support levels. Now the axe job article.

    Not fond of $IRBT above $30-35, but this might make for an interesting short squeeze.
    May 20 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Turns Japanese? [View article]
    Bravo. Ha fatto bene.
    Thank you Mr. Hui for the excellent read.

    Mr. Hui is neither the first, nor the last to write about the drunk elephant in arena. What will happen is less obvious than Japan in '89. "Like a motorcycle at 100mph without a helmet...." captures it well. Thank you.
    May 15 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. To Foreign Officials: Stop Buying Treasuries [View article]
    Thanks for the article. Fed talking out of both sides of its face. Paying lipservice to discourage and then requiring other actions that almost give no choice but to collateralize with US Treasuries.
    Apr 16 10:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Sell EWW, The Mexican Stock ETF [View article]
    What Jan sell rating? Where?

    Even if so, to follow it up with an SA axe-job 2 months later is poor form. EWW is up +8.5% since this March post. We bought some, but it did not down to sub $58 for the deep discount buying. At this point we are selling In the Money $62 and $63 strike calls for a little extra profit with the rapid time decay and will soon exit what we have. By the end of April, if it is still $64 to $65- then we would go short some pending the down drag that the threat of future rising US interest rates will have on Mexico.
    Apr 2 01:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Is Rigged! The Stock Market Is Not Rigged! [View article]
    Many billions. Not Millions. Even my former firm's prototype was making tens of millions in 2001-2002.

    Its disturbing that the HFTs are even in the options markets now. Across more than one executing broker: I go to load an order, info passed to my executing broker before it goes down to exchange. If I am above the midpoint of the spread, with magic consistency an order pops in one penny lower while the bid also often upticks a penny. If I don't send the order and just kill it in the Send/Transmit Torpedo Bay- things go back to the previous spread after a few seconds of waiting to see if I come back. Gee, thank you executing brokers for selling the information of what I might do out from under me.

    Equity: All for going to nickle spreads and slight tax on transactions, at least on the Buys. The SEC tax on the Sells and other costs don't seem to deter the HFTs enough.
    Apr 2 12:35 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Janet Yellen walks back hawkish vibe [View news story]
    And here I thought Vladimir Nabokov was dead....
    Mar 31 01:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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