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neobliviscar

neobliviscar
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  • U.S. To Foreign Officials: Stop Buying Treasuries [View article]
    Thanks for the article. Fed talking out of both sides of its face. Paying lipservice to discourage and then requiring other actions that almost give no choice but to collateralize with US Treasuries.
    Apr 16 10:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Sell EWW, The Mexican Stock ETF [View article]
    What Jan sell rating? Where?

    Even if so, to follow it up with an SA axe-job 2 months later is poor form. EWW is up +8.5% since this March post. We bought some, but it did not down to sub $58 for the deep discount buying. At this point we are selling In the Money $62 and $63 strike calls for a little extra profit with the rapid time decay and will soon exit what we have. By the end of April, if it is still $64 to $65- then we would go short some pending the down drag that the threat of future rising US interest rates will have on Mexico.
    Apr 2 01:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Is Rigged! The Stock Market Is Not Rigged! [View article]
    Many billions. Not Millions. Even my former firm's prototype was making tens of millions in 2001-2002.

    Its disturbing that the HFTs are even in the options markets now. Across more than one executing broker: I go to load an order, info passed to my executing broker before it goes down to exchange. If I am above the midpoint of the spread, with magic consistency an order pops in one penny lower while the bid also often upticks a penny. If I don't send the order and just kill it in the Send/Transmit Torpedo Bay- things go back to the previous spread after a few seconds of waiting to see if I come back. Gee, thank you executing brokers for selling the information of what I might do out from under me.

    Equity: All for going to nickle spreads and slight tax on transactions, at least on the Buys. The SEC tax on the Sells and other costs don't seem to deter the HFTs enough.
    Apr 2 12:35 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Janet Yellen walks back hawkish vibe [View news story]
    And here I thought Vladimir Nabokov was dead....
    Mar 31 01:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Janet Yellen walks back hawkish vibe [View news story]
    Perish the thought that Yellen might be an Uber Dove. It is best to be loved and feared, but if you must be only one: it is better to be feared. No one fears the Yellen.
    Mar 31 10:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Sell EWW, The Mexican Stock ETF [View article]
    Interesting. Here I thought it was almost time to buy $EWW, having sold it 10% higher in what is largely a cyclical trade.

    I love, "clients of hedge funds rushed to withdraw their money while money managers sold their existing holdings to meet clients' requests and margin calls". As a hedge fund manager, its a kick to read such things. The reality is I am getting emails from clients far away as Norway and Sweden asking about starting to step back into $EWW.

    Differences of opinion. We have not bought in significantly yet, but I do not think it hurts to reveal we intend to do so should price drop another 5%.
    Mar 13 10:23 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Home Sales at 414K [View news story]
    With the Congressional Flood Insurance Biggert-Waters Fiasco, not surprised the housing market cooled off. Congress effectively pumped 2 bullets into the body of the recovering market and then patted itself on the back for a job well done.

    So short sighted.
    Why do we let lawyers keep driving our economy into the ditch?
    Jan 27 11:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Northern Iron Now Worth Less Than $21, Will Fall To $0 In 15 Months [View article]
    Mmm Mmm Good :-o
    Like the soup company, the original Johnny Inca I knew was also in NJ. Not that small of a world, is it?

    Ne'O
    Jan 14 08:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Northern Iron Now Worth Less Than $21, Will Fall To $0 In 15 Months [View article]
    Ted Knight from Caddy Shack Avatar and a pseudoname like Johnny Inca. ~Love it.
    Jan 13 09:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Northern Iron Now Worth Less Than $21, Will Fall To $0 In 15 Months [View article]
    Excellent link. Wish I had seen that before.

    It saved me quite a bit of time. I'm still thrown by, "Fifty years later, the restrictive land ownership statute provision was repealed and all of the assets of the liquidated companies were transferred to direct ownership of the Trustees of Great Northern Iron Ore Properties" and have a few conflicts with Mr. Dolan's articles on what I dug up this morning, but it is a significant shortcut.
    Jan 7 02:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Northern Iron Now Worth Less Than $21, Will Fall To $0 In 15 Months [View article]
    "Although the Registrant owns in excess of 67,000 acres in varied fee (surface and/or mineral) and ownership percentage interests in northeastern Minnesota, our mineral interests on the Mesabi Iron Range formation represent 12,033 acres, including approximately 7,443 acres that are wholly owned, 1,080 acres in which the Registrant is a tenant in common with a 91% interest, 3,350 acres in tenancy in common with a 50% interest and 160 acres in tenancy in common with other fractional interests. Of said mineral interest total, 9,895 acres are under lease and 2,138 acres are unleased." We have on the balance sheet:

    PROPERTIES
    Mineral and surface lands 39,479,708 39,479,708
    Accumulated depletion and amortization (38,418,877)

    Their schedule of land seems to largely just be Mesabi Iron Range. The shadow is much larger than the image. Looks like a balance sheet shell game, which is legal. We get that $20-$21 value from the $0 here. If we get anything from land or any other component, it goes up. It would have been nice to sell $25 &$20 Jan/Feb puts this morning.

    At this point, I'm simply flagging it as an academic case that might be fun for a grad school class. Everyone seems to be looking one way on this, whereas those autobot reports by FORD and Jaywalk were looking the DCF other way and total rubbish. The final answer might be somewhere in the middle. As everyone has tipped it from one side of the boat to the other side, next week or two could be interesting. I do feel this one is much more of a BPT incident than QCOR or HLF.
    Jan 7 02:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Northern Iron Now Worth Less Than $21, Will Fall To $0 In 15 Months [View article]
    But they do own land. Not just leases.
    And as to options, clearly I'd be a put seller going long the OoM Calls. Good lord, why would I touch the March $25 strike in the money?
    Jan 7 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Northern Iron Now Worth Less Than $21, Will Fall To $0 In 15 Months [View article]
    That is what I thought too. Certainly reads like that casually.

    Can you link to the legal document on the Trust and find any language that says they are not allowed to sell any of that severely undervalued land? The $8.39 is a baseline estimate that seems low to fair on the ore, but innocently deceptive in that they'd need be braindead not to turn to cash what they can before April 6, 2015. Especially with the land values in that area by current University of Minnesota estimates. Question is are they not able to sell any of that land?

    It is bloody rough math, but I get $20 of time discounted value on the ore royalty distributions and about $50-$55 of time discounted value on the land. What an April Fools 2015 joke. That is $70 to $75 at present, or the price it was trading at last week. Still, I think that land value is a huge unknown. Unable to lease some of it, I question their ability to sell despite the external values some place on it. Still, cutting it 50% in half at $25 to $27.5 still puts about a $45 valuation on it at present.

    In a nutshell, they cannot sell *any* of their land wholly owned or otherwise?

    This is all bloody envelope math, but these have always been fun ones to review over the past 15 years. Especially when pharma like QCOR or spindoctor battles royale like HLF. Unlike those two, I think this is more in the BPT camp and your article was dead on knocking it down from $75. I am not sure it belongs sub $25. Next few days could be interesting. If it had options, I would trade it accordingly using $20 & $25 puts and possibly buying Jan 21 OoM calls. So far, it has been something fun to study on a boring day. Congrats.
    Jan 7 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Northern Iron Now Worth Less Than $21, Will Fall To $0 In 15 Months [View article]
    What happens to the $39,000,000 in land they outright own? How accurate is that land value given the rise in land values and their "strategic" [annual report's wording] location? I admit to being confused, coming to the party very late on this one and giving it a quick SEC.gov read. The letter from the very senior citizen CEO was certainly a shot in the leg.

    Many trusts have been great shorts in recent years. BPT was lovely. Yet throwing in the boot from the land, I'm getting a valuation of closer to $40-$50. What is the value of the nearly fully depreciated land after cease of the Trust?

    Watching this ugly puppy get pummeled beyond recognition. Good call over, but not sure if it is worth $21 or more like $41?
    Jan 7 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Stocks Ready To Short [View article]
    $IRBT - I considered defending this one, but market quickly did it for me. Not a bad call, but quite a bit late.

    The last 4 months I'd done considerable research into building an argument to short this one. As I dug in, I found quite a bit of Tip of the Iceberg. Very begrudgingly, I found myself building a mild bull case. As it went sub $30, I had to buy a few thousand.

    It has been rewarded quickly, and I will probably exit soon. Dr. Stoxx, I recommend you dig into the accounting and find some of the cash they are holding back, as well as some of the potential military contracts coming up as the talk and talk about their home robot story. It is really more important what they are trying not to say. Also, if this company ever learned to listen to their late MIT professor Modigliani even through a night school class- this company could easily leverage itself closer to a valuation of $45-$50.

    I wanted to short this company at $35-$36, but came to realize that would be a mistake. It would have been a lucky mistake where I would have bought in around $30. They could use a better CFO, but this is a stock that should be above $40.

    Ne'O
    A pro, but Nobody important.
    Dec 17 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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