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neobliviscar

neobliviscar
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  • New York Mortgage Trust: The Dividend Powerhouse Just Won't Be Stopped [View article]
    As I learned yesterday, only .27 cents of their income was subject to the 90% rule. Much of the rest was either excluded one time gain or other, -that they will likely plow back into the business and increase value.

    That said, I think rlp is right in that they continue to issue shares in a fashion that throws a bit of cold water on their existing investor base. Don't think we get a special dividend, though even a token one or a token dividend raise would send this stock much further upwards and benefit any future share issue. Would rather they line up the shot with either small div raise or special div, before share issue. If they did that, I could only think better of an already respected management.
    Feb 26, 2015. 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Real Shift In Fed Views Or Technical Correction? [View article]
    When you are looking at Doves that far out on a limb, you are talking about approaching Infinity. Sure, something or someone can be closer- but for the sake of the math equation- makes little difference. Uber Dove is Uber Dove. QE Infinity is QE Infinity.

    Having been over 25 years with one familiar foot across the Pacific in Japan, this isn't new to me. Different population and different parts, but ultimately still a car for most concerned.

    In response to the other poster: If Bernie vs Yellen vs Summers had started the same current term, Summers=Hawk Bernie=Middle Yellen=Dove. To discount time value is against very nature of what we are doing here. The binary event of Summers vs Yellen meant more to the market than anything else for a window of about 2 to 3 months. There was no analog equiv of Bernie. Just Summers vs Yellen. I'd hoped she's show a bit more backbone, and act less of an elementary school principal.

    Ne'O
    Feb 19, 2015. 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Real Shift In Fed Views Or Technical Correction? [View article]
    You say Yellen is a Centrist? Well, kick me between the uprights hard enough that my grandchildren will feel it. I thought she was the Doviest of UberDoves.

    I must be a child eating Grendel in comparison. The Fed must be sweeter and lovier than Candyland.
    Feb 19, 2015. 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Will Roar Once Greece Is Cured [View article]
    *meow*
    Feb 11, 2015. 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rate hike expectations to shift after big jobs report? [View news story]
    Agree. Or .25% June and something early next year.
    Feb 6, 2015. 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rate hike expectations to shift after big jobs report? [View news story]
    In answer to David White's questions:
    Oil gives them pause, but they think it blippage.
    Any change in China's peg to the US$ might get them to reconsider.

    They are very afraid of being ~behind the curve~ and think a flu shot of an intentional super shallow recession with a token rate raise might be best to ward it off. Bill Gross recently talked about this and I agree. Others like Buffett are being Equity Market greedy. Nice near 900pt move in the DJIA the past few days and some insane V snaps the past year. Schiller metrics type people pointing at "second most historically over-valued" market in their measures. Current Fed is rather cowardly, so I think they will Dove blink past June.

    Personally, I'm neutral. Our post 08-09 recovery has been one of have & have not. California has loved it. NY & FL suddenly started recovery with QE3, but outside of Manhattan and Miami the recovery isn't to the bone. Fed has done a lot the past 6 years, but the exec and legislative govt have both been significant failures.
    Feb 6, 2015. 11:03 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Preferred Stock Dividend Growth [View article]
    http://bit.ly/1attQDl

    Very useful site with ability to click through and read prospectus on most.
    Preferreds in ROTH IRA is excellent approach.
    Jan 30, 2015. 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Preferred Stock Dividend Growth [View article]
    A good website for this: http://bit.ly/1c2eIjx

    Preferred such as $NYMTP sometimes go On Sale for various reasons. It requires a bit of bravery with energy sector ones like VNRAP, VNRBP, and VNRCP with the last two trading as low as $15 from their $25 mark. I pick up 10000 to 20000 in the ROTH IRA and just the income to pick up regular div champ equities when they go On Sale. $JNJ is one currently a div champ on sale.

    With market at nosebleed levels, tempting to just use professional account to roll into a basket of preferred avg about 7.5% and 2x it on leverage at a low margin rate of 1.1% per year. Ends up being +12 to +14% as long as interest rates don't slam higher in the next year. Yes, I know the risks there.

    Ne'O
    Jan 27, 2015. 07:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson & Johnson Is Slightly Overvalued, Time To Sell This Drug Maker [View article]
    Agree. Hit the CIA site for the numbers on aging populations. Have spent enough years in Japan watching it,, and in Europe too. Medical advances just kick up the life expectancy more and more. Growth of population here in Florida continues to ratchet up: young hispanic immigration from Caribbean and S. America can barely keep pace with the white retirees coming down.

    Ne'O
    Jan 22, 2015. 11:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson & Johnson Is Slightly Overvalued, Time To Sell This Drug Maker [View article]
    Poor article. Unsophisticated argument left handed about a few things. We love JNJ for nearly 20 years now and cycle in and out of it at times. We were buying on the least pullback at 97, selling above 107, and buying at 101. Was, has been, and always will be an investment vehicle. Expect move towards 105.

    Ne'O
    Jan 22, 2015. 09:41 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swiss Surprises [View article]
    James,


    It got me too. About $80,000 in one overnight move in a relatively small derivative hedge. It is a small amount for our fund, but it represents our major loss for an otherwise stellar month. I would say I am rather angry with the SNB right now and will not be investing in Switzerland any more.

    Quite simply, cannot trust the Swiss National Bank for stable investing. If they'd moved to lessen the peg, it would not have shattered my faith in them.
    Jan 15, 2015. 01:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Dunkin' Donuts Is Going To China - Okay, NOW We're Talking [View article]
    Forget China.
    I picked up 10,000 shares sub $42 and sold mixed back of the Jan $42.5 and $45 calls. Didn't expect this +10% pop after they just took the -10% hit guiding lower.

    Looks like I'll be out this Friday. I find this a con job by management and am going to build a short position here. It is also interesting how much interest rate exposure this company has.

    Ne'O
    Jan 13, 2015. 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Expect WTI To Go Back To $100 [View article]
    Tom,

    This is like reading my own inner monologue. Thank you for bringing it into print. Don't think I have so 100% agreed with someone in years.
    Dec 9, 2014. 09:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Expect WTI To Go Back To $100 [View article]
    Tom,

    I enjoyed your approach to this article. Excellent work. Thank you.
    Dec 4, 2014. 11:20 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Feel Like A Thief Buying IBM At Today's Low Valuation [View article]
    I write it in Sarasota on Thursday. Chuck up in Tampa web publishes it on Friday. In all fairness, don't know how long it took SA to get this article up. Besides, quite sure Chuck doesn't read my stuff.

    I may not particularly like the author, but do consistently agree with many of his calls and timing. A measure of his track record would show him to be one of the most dependable. He has the bad habit of publishing while I am accumulating a position in something, and many more people read his stuff than mine. Chattanooga Choo-Choo Chuck chugging away, pulling a lot of weight, often before I've fully loaded my position.
    Aug 8, 2014. 08:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
175 Comments
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