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neobliviscar

neobliviscar
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  • The Story Of How New York Mortgage Trust Fell From Grace [View article]
    I've been following ColoradoWM for a while. Usually hat off to them for the education. This time: not so much.

    Looking forward to what else CWM has to say and see if it sheds any light. We flipped from long to sell around $7.92 and went short various prices down into earnings. At these levels, I am buying again- expecting a very good next qtr. Maybe CWM can throw could water on that, or maybe not.

    I think the preferred $NYMTP and $NYMTO very undervalued compared to similar preferreds. Would love to hear why it trades at about a 10% discount.
    Aug 27, 2015. 03:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing starts come in strong in July [View news story]
    In Florida, many are Zombie foreclosures. Ie. Banks should have foreclosed years ago, but only doing so now because they can be sold quick and easy.

    It is keeping prices here muted. There is little supply and two houses will go off at $1.5 and $1.6 M, but then a Zombie foreclosure valued at $1.1 M will hit the market for $650k. It will go off relatively quickly to someone, but usually they haven't been kept up to condition in years. It totally haircuts any house within proximity.
    Aug 18, 2015. 02:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stop Panicking Over New York Mortgage Trust [View article]
    I understand your interpretation, but chose to view this more as bond with its appropriate rating. Towards June 2018, I have it yielding about +13.4% though allow for this to be less if interest rates increase significantly.

    With China exporting deflation, and a few others likely to follow- I'm not a big believer in broad near term inflation.
    Aug 12, 2015. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stop Panicking Over New York Mortgage Trust [View article]
    I wrote to the CFO once and appreciated her quick intelligent response. However, I don't think that passes through to them making a public statement. I had this argument with $EBIX when it was sub $14 and I thought they should defend themselves. They eventually did and you can see the results, but they sat there like lumps on a log just taking it for a while.

    Some companies talk to much, yet others like $NYMT don't seem to talk enough. Thank the stars $EBIX finally found its voice. Not sure $NYMT will ever do that. Lawyers will probably tell them to be silent as the grave, which rarely is the right thing to do unless you are guilty.

    Ne'O
    Aug 10, 2015. 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stop Panicking Over New York Mortgage Trust [View article]
    I have not idea. They're treating the bond like preferred as if it were equity and just plain cutting its head off.

    It is preferred. Fixed dividend of $0.48 + and It gets paid first.
    I expected the drop in NYMT to sub $7. Probably closer to $6.85, so today's action makes me just think the baby went out with the bathwater.

    However, I think the preferred is just the real head scratch buy here. Giving me over +13.4% (Yield to Worst, June 8, 2018) on $NYMTP.... mmmh, I'll take the preferred over the risk of dividend cut on the equity.

    I'm pretty much at a loss on this one as to why they've gotten knocked down same as the common equity. That should only happen if default risk is rising, but NYMTP is trading not much better than Puerto Rican bonds.

    Ne'O
    Aug 10, 2015. 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stop Panicking Over New York Mortgage Trust [View article]
    Boy, knew that lemming downgrade was coming. Just hard pressed to believe it actually has the stock down this much.

    Ne'O
    Aug 10, 2015. 03:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stop Panicking Over New York Mortgage Trust [View article]
    I agree, but don't think we will hear a peep out of them.
    Aug 10, 2015. 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stop Panicking Over New York Mortgage Trust [View article]
    Agree. I find the preferred NYMTP and NYMTO very undervalued at present.
    Aug 5, 2015. 12:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Puerto Rican Sell-Off Brings Forward Tremendous Opportunity For Assured Guaranty [View article]
    Well done article. Garcia certainly threw Puerto Rico under the bus, with across the board sell-off of -25 to -30%.
    Jul 1, 2015. 12:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan Overshadowed, But Important Developments [View article]
    Thank you. Agree with most all of it.

    Former student and ex-pat of Japan with significant ties there.
    Think I worry about my Japanese family more than I do my USA family, yet they endure with more grace and moment so happiness despite bleaker prospects and very little hope for a better tomorrow.
    May 7, 2015. 10:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Good Reasons To Sell BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    Pablo,

    Thank you for actually reading. I'm an older fund manager who plays around to keep from getting bored. $BPT is just giggle dinner personal play money. Will concede oil is far from bread n butter, but these decaying Oil Trusts are interesting with how much they screw off any calc'd value line.

    Don't worry about MM. Doubt he has a sense of humor, but given his Meow! I mistakenly thought he was SuperTrooper riffing. I'm anticipating for some gut-suck puffed chest reply.
    May 4, 2015. 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Good Reasons To Sell BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    Ah, growling spitting kitten!
    so cute.
    so cute.
    May 4, 2015. 03:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Good Reasons To Sell BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    Thats Chairman Meow to you.
    Still, even I think $BPT getting overvalued here. Don't like selling longer duration Calls against it with the Saudis able to screw it up.
    May 4, 2015. 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Italy: Political Reform Necessary Pre-Condition Of Economic Reform [View article]
    While working at a University in Italy as an undersecretary to various finance and economics professors during the formation of the EC, I learned bucket-loads about getting things done. Such sotto tavolo would have gotten me upbraided, been viewed as extremely criminal, or more likely beaten with a axe handle where I grew up.
    Yet, strangely, it was the perfect training for NYC. Post Italy, I have never found a city more easy to live and get things done. A $20 or $40 here, there, left in a book loaned, a handshake, or a blank thank-you card could move mountains.

    My first introduction to this getting my semi-legal work status renewed in Italy. Rather than permitting and proving I left the country every so often, an attractive female american friend and I went to a Communale and visited the one armed Communist clerk with a cigar box of small denomination Lira. Not a word of that is made up.

    I haven't been to Italy in a few years since my wife finds it a ridiculous country. Many of those finance and economics professors went on to work for the banks with toxic debt. Back in 1993-94, they were using the grant money given to them for their EC work. Many fancy meals at the best places in town, with nice wine. In my immediate boss' benefit, he got an almost brand new white BMW for he and his pretty young wife. Berlusconi was newly elected around that time.

    Italy doesn't change much. With the fading of various flavors of the old communists and southern Italy organized crime, the country seems to have actually gotten more corrupt.
    May 4, 2015. 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Good Reasons To Sell BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    Totally understand all the arguments and been shorting since $97.5 with rarely going long on extreme dips. Picked up a small 400 shares long the other month and sold at $64.90 on what I thought was an extreme bounce in $BPT on the partial recovery of oil.

    Now here we are at $75.75 even as bonds weaken and oil has slowed its bounce.
    Think time someone poked that JPM fellow and let him know the market is laughing at him. Might put on a short position here, but very costly to borrow to short this one these days.
    May 4, 2015. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
198 Comments
181 Likes