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neobliviscar

neobliviscar
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  • Japan Overshadowed, But Important Developments [View article]
    Thank you. Agree with most all of it.

    Former student and ex-pat of Japan with significant ties there.
    Think I worry about my Japanese family more than I do my USA family, yet they endure with more grace and moment so happiness despite bleaker prospects and very little hope for a better tomorrow.
    May 7, 2015. 10:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Good Reasons To Sell BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    Pablo,

    Thank you for actually reading. I'm an older fund manager who plays around to keep from getting bored. $BPT is just giggle dinner personal play money. Will concede oil is far from bread n butter, but these decaying Oil Trusts are interesting with how much they screw off any calc'd value line.

    Don't worry about MM. Doubt he has a sense of humor, but given his Meow! I mistakenly thought he was SuperTrooper riffing. I'm anticipating for some gut-suck puffed chest reply.
    May 4, 2015. 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Good Reasons To Sell BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    Ah, growling spitting kitten!
    so cute.
    so cute.
    May 4, 2015. 03:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Good Reasons To Sell BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    Thats Chairman Meow to you.
    Still, even I think $BPT getting overvalued here. Don't like selling longer duration Calls against it with the Saudis able to screw it up.
    May 4, 2015. 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Italy: Political Reform Necessary Pre-Condition Of Economic Reform [View article]
    While working at a University in Italy as an undersecretary to various finance and economics professors during the formation of the EC, I learned bucket-loads about getting things done. Such sotto tavolo would have gotten me upbraided, been viewed as extremely criminal, or more likely beaten with a axe handle where I grew up.
    Yet, strangely, it was the perfect training for NYC. Post Italy, I have never found a city more easy to live and get things done. A $20 or $40 here, there, left in a book loaned, a handshake, or a blank thank-you card could move mountains.

    My first introduction to this getting my semi-legal work status renewed in Italy. Rather than permitting and proving I left the country every so often, an attractive female american friend and I went to a Communale and visited the one armed Communist clerk with a cigar box of small denomination Lira. Not a word of that is made up.

    I haven't been to Italy in a few years since my wife finds it a ridiculous country. Many of those finance and economics professors went on to work for the banks with toxic debt. Back in 1993-94, they were using the grant money given to them for their EC work. Many fancy meals at the best places in town, with nice wine. In my immediate boss' benefit, he got an almost brand new white BMW for he and his pretty young wife. Berlusconi was newly elected around that time.

    Italy doesn't change much. With the fading of various flavors of the old communists and southern Italy organized crime, the country seems to have actually gotten more corrupt.
    May 4, 2015. 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Good Reasons To Sell BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust [View article]
    Totally understand all the arguments and been shorting since $97.5 with rarely going long on extreme dips. Picked up a small 400 shares long the other month and sold at $64.90 on what I thought was an extreme bounce in $BPT on the partial recovery of oil.

    Now here we are at $75.75 even as bonds weaken and oil has slowed its bounce.
    Think time someone poked that JPM fellow and let him know the market is laughing at him. Might put on a short position here, but very costly to borrow to short this one these days.
    May 4, 2015. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: Corzine considers launching hedge fund [View news story]
    In 2000 our main office was in Jersey City with many doing the reverse commute from NYC. Any stop on the PATH train, Corzine had dozens of people in your face to vote for him. He ran the sleaziest grease campaign.

    He spent more than $62 million of his own money on that campaign, the most expensive Senate campaign in U.S. history. I'd met Bob Franks at a reception and decided I thought he was a much much much better man. Bob Franks was the first Republican I ever donated too. Corzine outspent him almost 11 to 1 and still only won the race by 4% margin.

    From him entering my awareness then, he's been a cockroach every step of the way. Every time he was on TV, my skin got the creeps and instincts jumped this man was such a liar that a truth out of his mouth would startle himself.
    We'd had reason to consider opening a prime brokerage relation with MF, but were unofficially warned off when our executing brokers at the time said they'd charge an absurd (*astronomical*) rate to clear through MF. Thank Heavens for that 'Keep Walking' Sotto-voce message there.

    If I were this guy, I would long since have killed myself in shame. I cannot believe he and Dick Fuld aren't wearing concrete loafers in the East River.

    Ne'O
    Apr 20, 2015. 07:58 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Con Edison's drop into the close coincides with NYC building collapse [View news story]
    Yes, it is.
    Yet someone just dishing it out at $59. Have picked up 2500, and may add another 2500 this evening or early tomorrow morning, if priced low.
    Mar 26, 2015. 04:50 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dovish Comments From The Fed Make 12% Dividend American Capital Agency Attractive [View article]
    They have seen a small bump up, but the preferred shares on many of them have not moved. Most yielding from 8 to >10%. The Market continues to see higher rates just around the corner. If so, fine. If not, then many are under-priced.

    Ne'O
    Mar 19, 2015. 03:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Balanced Fed Is Not Dovish Fed [View article]
    "and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term."

    That is the easiest cut-paste one without going into it. Evidence of inflation was made a condition for raising rates. Call it a trapdoor. Other trapdoors were installed via the language to get out of future rate raises. So many that I begin to doubt rates will be raised in 2015. Definitely not in June.

    Slowly raise the hurdles and lengthen the distance just a bit.
    Mar 19, 2015. 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Balanced Fed Is Not Dovish Fed [View article]
    Always read your posts and articles, and generally tip my hat towards BBH since they gave me one of my first job offers.

    Usually I agree with you. On this one, I appreciate your rationale but think you have the wrong end of the stick. Yellen put out there wording that she will be beaten with if she raises rates any time soon. The impact was evident in the main arteries of the bond market, but will take a while to pass into raising the smaller batch exchange traded debt and preferred stocks.

    I so wish Ben had taken another term, and understand entirely why he did not. The result has been a poorly played endgame that has resulted in a pathetic stalemate after some of the skin of the teeth early and midgame of this bull market.
    Mar 19, 2015. 08:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's: The Powerhouse You Never Think Of, When You Think About Innovation [View article]
    Ooh... envelope math?

    I've been cyclically trading $MCD for years now, having owned a significant stake from $17 during the Mad Cow days- finally cycling out during 2013. Most recently it was a buy at $88-90, and I picked up a just a bit over 8000 at an avg cost just above $90. Dumped it in due course, and shorted it three times as it approached $96. The last short cost me money, so you can write me off as sour grapes.

    It is a solid company, just like $RAI, $MO, and $PM. Got more cost issues than them. Just it is currently overvalued and got the Bollingers stretched the most I've seen since it was last at $103. Unless interest rates stay down and that yield gets more appealing to portfolio managers, this stock should continue back to converge back to $95-$97 range.

    Should and Will, are two different things. You've motivated me to work on best way to short it with options it in anticipation of mean reversion, though in the age of infinite QEs around the world- mean reversion is a bit of a broken concept.

    As many Stock Talkers know, I like the fries. Don't like the stock at this price.
    Good luck with the clicks.

    Ne'O
    Mar 2, 2015. 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's: The Powerhouse You Never Think Of, When You Think About Innovation [View article]
    Puked in my mouth a bit reading this one. Pictures didn't help. But someone is buying or eating it. Stock continues northward towards all time highs on a hit of hOpium that the savior has arrived at the Golden Arches.
    Mar 2, 2015. 09:51 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Mortgage Trust: The Dividend Powerhouse Just Won't Be Stopped [View article]
    Yup. Since mREITs aren't my bread n butter, it took me a little while to see where this was going. Ie. Increase in book value. Anyone done the math yet on the rate at which they've been increasing book value? Even creating a spread cutting the prior rate in 1/2 vs historical rate, curious where it indicates book value at 1 and 2 years out and keeping dividend constant.

    Ne'O
    Feb 27, 2015. 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Mortgage Trust: The Dividend Powerhouse Just Won't Be Stopped [View article]
    As I learned yesterday, only .27 cents of their income was subject to the 90% rule. Much of the rest was either excluded one time gain or other, -that they will likely plow back into the business and increase value.

    That said, I think rlp is right in that they continue to issue shares in a fashion that throws a bit of cold water on their existing investor base. Don't think we get a special dividend, though even a token one or a token dividend raise would send this stock much further upwards and benefit any future share issue. Would rather they line up the shot with either small div raise or special div, before share issue. If they did that, I could only think better of an already respected management.
    Feb 26, 2015. 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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