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neobliviscar

neobliviscar
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  • Con Edison's drop into the close coincides with NYC building collapse [View news story]
    Yes, it is.
    Yet someone just dishing it out at $59. Have picked up 2500, and may add another 2500 this evening or early tomorrow morning, if priced low.
    Mar 26, 2015. 04:50 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dovish Comments From The Fed Make 12% Dividend American Capital Agency Attractive [View article]
    They have seen a small bump up, but the preferred shares on many of them have not moved. Most yielding from 8 to >10%. The Market continues to see higher rates just around the corner. If so, fine. If not, then many are under-priced.

    Ne'O
    Mar 19, 2015. 03:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Balanced Fed Is Not Dovish Fed [View article]
    "and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term."

    That is the easiest cut-paste one without going into it. Evidence of inflation was made a condition for raising rates. Call it a trapdoor. Other trapdoors were installed via the language to get out of future rate raises. So many that I begin to doubt rates will be raised in 2015. Definitely not in June.

    Slowly raise the hurdles and lengthen the distance just a bit.
    Mar 19, 2015. 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Balanced Fed Is Not Dovish Fed [View article]
    Always read your posts and articles, and generally tip my hat towards BBH since they gave me one of my first job offers.

    Usually I agree with you. On this one, I appreciate your rationale but think you have the wrong end of the stick. Yellen put out there wording that she will be beaten with if she raises rates any time soon. The impact was evident in the main arteries of the bond market, but will take a while to pass into raising the smaller batch exchange traded debt and preferred stocks.

    I so wish Ben had taken another term, and understand entirely why he did not. The result has been a poorly played endgame that has resulted in a pathetic stalemate after some of the skin of the teeth early and midgame of this bull market.
    Mar 19, 2015. 08:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's: The Powerhouse You Never Think Of, When You Think About Innovation [View article]
    Ooh... envelope math?

    I've been cyclically trading $MCD for years now, having owned a significant stake from $17 during the Mad Cow days- finally cycling out during 2013. Most recently it was a buy at $88-90, and I picked up a just a bit over 8000 at an avg cost just above $90. Dumped it in due course, and shorted it three times as it approached $96. The last short cost me money, so you can write me off as sour grapes.

    It is a solid company, just like $RAI, $MO, and $PM. Got more cost issues than them. Just it is currently overvalued and got the Bollingers stretched the most I've seen since it was last at $103. Unless interest rates stay down and that yield gets more appealing to portfolio managers, this stock should continue back to converge back to $95-$97 range.

    Should and Will, are two different things. You've motivated me to work on best way to short it with options it in anticipation of mean reversion, though in the age of infinite QEs around the world- mean reversion is a bit of a broken concept.

    As many Stock Talkers know, I like the fries. Don't like the stock at this price.
    Good luck with the clicks.

    Ne'O
    Mar 2, 2015. 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's: The Powerhouse You Never Think Of, When You Think About Innovation [View article]
    Puked in my mouth a bit reading this one. Pictures didn't help. But someone is buying or eating it. Stock continues northward towards all time highs on a hit of hOpium that the savior has arrived at the Golden Arches.
    Mar 2, 2015. 09:51 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Mortgage Trust: The Dividend Powerhouse Just Won't Be Stopped [View article]
    Yup. Since mREITs aren't my bread n butter, it took me a little while to see where this was going. Ie. Increase in book value. Anyone done the math yet on the rate at which they've been increasing book value? Even creating a spread cutting the prior rate in 1/2 vs historical rate, curious where it indicates book value at 1 and 2 years out and keeping dividend constant.

    Ne'O
    Feb 27, 2015. 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Mortgage Trust: The Dividend Powerhouse Just Won't Be Stopped [View article]
    As I learned yesterday, only .27 cents of their income was subject to the 90% rule. Much of the rest was either excluded one time gain or other, -that they will likely plow back into the business and increase value.

    That said, I think rlp is right in that they continue to issue shares in a fashion that throws a bit of cold water on their existing investor base. Don't think we get a special dividend, though even a token one or a token dividend raise would send this stock much further upwards and benefit any future share issue. Would rather they line up the shot with either small div raise or special div, before share issue. If they did that, I could only think better of an already respected management.
    Feb 26, 2015. 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Real Shift In Fed Views Or Technical Correction? [View article]
    When you are looking at Doves that far out on a limb, you are talking about approaching Infinity. Sure, something or someone can be closer- but for the sake of the math equation- makes little difference. Uber Dove is Uber Dove. QE Infinity is QE Infinity.

    Having been over 25 years with one familiar foot across the Pacific in Japan, this isn't new to me. Different population and different parts, but ultimately still a car for most concerned.

    In response to the other poster: If Bernie vs Yellen vs Summers had started the same current term, Summers=Hawk Bernie=Middle Yellen=Dove. To discount time value is against very nature of what we are doing here. The binary event of Summers vs Yellen meant more to the market than anything else for a window of about 2 to 3 months. There was no analog equiv of Bernie. Just Summers vs Yellen. I'd hoped she's show a bit more backbone, and act less of an elementary school principal.

    Ne'O
    Feb 19, 2015. 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Real Shift In Fed Views Or Technical Correction? [View article]
    You say Yellen is a Centrist? Well, kick me between the uprights hard enough that my grandchildren will feel it. I thought she was the Doviest of UberDoves.

    I must be a child eating Grendel in comparison. The Fed must be sweeter and lovier than Candyland.
    Feb 19, 2015. 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Will Roar Once Greece Is Cured [View article]
    *meow*
    Feb 11, 2015. 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rate hike expectations to shift after big jobs report? [View news story]
    Agree. Or .25% June and something early next year.
    Feb 6, 2015. 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rate hike expectations to shift after big jobs report? [View news story]
    In answer to David White's questions:
    Oil gives them pause, but they think it blippage.
    Any change in China's peg to the US$ might get them to reconsider.

    They are very afraid of being ~behind the curve~ and think a flu shot of an intentional super shallow recession with a token rate raise might be best to ward it off. Bill Gross recently talked about this and I agree. Others like Buffett are being Equity Market greedy. Nice near 900pt move in the DJIA the past few days and some insane V snaps the past year. Schiller metrics type people pointing at "second most historically over-valued" market in their measures. Current Fed is rather cowardly, so I think they will Dove blink past June.

    Personally, I'm neutral. Our post 08-09 recovery has been one of have & have not. California has loved it. NY & FL suddenly started recovery with QE3, but outside of Manhattan and Miami the recovery isn't to the bone. Fed has done a lot the past 6 years, but the exec and legislative govt have both been significant failures.
    Feb 6, 2015. 11:03 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Preferred Stock Dividend Growth [View article]
    http://bit.ly/1attQDl

    Very useful site with ability to click through and read prospectus on most.
    Preferreds in ROTH IRA is excellent approach.
    Jan 30, 2015. 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Preferred Stock Dividend Growth [View article]
    A good website for this: http://bit.ly/1c2eIjx

    Preferred such as $NYMTP sometimes go On Sale for various reasons. It requires a bit of bravery with energy sector ones like VNRAP, VNRBP, and VNRCP with the last two trading as low as $15 from their $25 mark. I pick up 10000 to 20000 in the ROTH IRA and just the income to pick up regular div champ equities when they go On Sale. $JNJ is one currently a div champ on sale.

    With market at nosebleed levels, tempting to just use professional account to roll into a basket of preferred avg about 7.5% and 2x it on leverage at a low margin rate of 1.1% per year. Ends up being +12 to +14% as long as interest rates don't slam higher in the next year. Yes, I know the risks there.

    Ne'O
    Jan 27, 2015. 07:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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