rickraphael

rickraphael
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
  • Apple's Problem Is That It Has Conquered The World  [View article]
    Where will Apple's growth come from? Try China and India over the next 10-20 years. That's not my opinion, it's the opinion of the World Bank (among others) as reported by the Brookings Institute:

    "The world is in the throes of a major expansion in the middle class, particularly in emerging Asia. The global middle class is expected to grow from under 2 billion consumers today to nearly 5 billion within two decades.

    Middle classes are an important key driver of growth, as the income elasticity for durable goods and services for middle class consumers is greater than one.

    China and India are at the forefront of the expansion of the global middle class. The world economy can be expected to increasingly rely on the middle classes of these two Asian powers as key sources of global demand."

    Apple is making investments in these countries because it understands where the markets will be in the future. See the chart on page 12 for staggering projections of where the US consumer will be relative to China and IndIa in 2020 and 2030! In 5 years China's middle class consumption surpasses the US and in 15 years China and India account for 41% of middle class consumption while the US middle class will be 7%.

    If details matter to you here's the full text: http://tinyurl.com/by8...
    Jan 30, 2016. 11:34 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2016 Recession Imminent  [View article]
    Then your "recession" will not meet the definition of 2 consecutive negative quarters of GDP growth. You may get a slowdown but not a recession.
    Jan 19, 2016. 08:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2016 Recession Imminent  [View article]
    The goto paper on yield curve inversion is: "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of U.S. Recessions" by Estrella and Mishkin, 1966: http://nyfed.org/1nfQusR

    The metric used is the 10 year yield minus the 3 month yield, currently: 2.03 - 0.24 = 1.79, far from an inverted curve. According to their prediction calculations at 4 quarters out a 50% probability of recession would indicate a value of -0.82 at this point in time. The 3 month yield would have to be 2.85% today.

    Another valuable predictor of recession (and inflation) is the Chicago Fed National Activity Index 3 month moving average: http://bit.ly/1nfQusT

    In December the CFNAI3 was -0.20, again far from the -0.70 indicating recession but at least moving in that direction. But it often travels above and below the zero line.

    Both the yield curve and the CFNAI3 have given false recession positives in times past. However, going back to 1965, when both the Estrella Mishkin yield curve and the CFNAI3 signal recession, the combined signal is 100% accurate.
    Jan 18, 2016. 04:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Worst Mistake Apple Investors Can Make Right Now  [View article]
    Head and Shoulders is a dandruff shampoo, nothing more.
    Jan 7, 2016. 08:11 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Worst Mistake Apple Investors Can Make Right Now  [View article]
    Buying AAPL puts? 90% of APPL options expire worthless. Selling covered calls makes more sense.
    Jan 7, 2016. 08:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple reportedly expected to cut iPhone 6S/6S+ orders; shares lower  [View news story]
    @imvho, @Alfredo Martinez
    Apple Watch still at 100 on the IBM Watson Trend even post holiday season. Killing it!
    Jan 5, 2016. 01:58 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Best Days Could Be In The Rear-View Mirror  [View article]
    Six best reasons this article is nonsense:
    http://for.tn/1R4Xm8N

    Start with 90% of Apple options expiring worthless for Apple gamblers, clickbait headlines, CNBC diet of fear, uncertainty and doubt, retail investor ignorance, etc. Never mind that Apple captures 95% of smartphone profits, how could that possibly matter?
    Jan 4, 2016. 12:39 PM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan: Carl Icahn's Best Energy Bet  [View article]
    IMO Icahn enters the FCX oil/gas auction and buys some of the assets. He recovers some of his losses on FCX when the stock rallies and adds to his long petroleum positions at a discount. Win win.
    Dec 29, 2015. 10:35 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Management Decisions Key To Overcoming Q2 Panic  [View article]
    Including the article and 192 comments, not one mention of what Cook called “currency headwinds” in the Q4 earnings call:

    “Katy (Huberty), it’s Tim. You have to consider the constant currency growth rates. And so if you do that, our (Q1) guidance is actually 8% to 11% (revenue growth) because we have about a 700 basis point FX headwind in Q1. And so the growth is actually quite good underneath that and that’s obviously a problem with everyone struggling with it.”

    Now, while the call doesn’t guide to Q2, it’s obvious that the real issue that all dollar denominated businesses are facing right now is the exchange rates that Apple blames for lower than desired forward looking revenues, not the demise of the iPhone.

    I have heard these “supply chain” projections more times than I can count. Katy Huberty in particular has been pushing Q2 negative growth for Apple and after Tim told her any revenue issues were currency related she later started pumping her supply chain crystal ball, then lowered her price expectations (slightly). Apple has consistently debunked supply chain predictions as impossible for analysts to understand because the supply chain is too complex.

    However, for the sell side analyst, the explanation is simple. Supply chain predicts lower iPhone sales equals a sell off and when Apple guides to better than expected Q2 results, they can sell boatloads of stock on the retrace to their customers. They get commissions going both ways. No crystal ball required.

    If in fact there is a revenue decline in Q2, I would expect the bias to be towards currency issues rather than iPhone sales problems. Lots of folks love to predict the demise of the iPhone, and they’re always shot down.
    Dec 25, 2015. 03:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Capitulating To The Content Owners (For Now)  [View article]
    Last WestEnd511 Apple article for me. Two in a row with useless info are enough.
    Dec 10, 2015. 10:21 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Making The Case Against An Apple Television Set  [View article]
    @Neil Cybart:
    When Siri searches for Apple TV content, is the search global across all Apple TV channels or is it limited to local the channel you are currently in (Netflix Apple, HBO, etc.)? If it’s like a global TV Guide showing all content on all channels than it will be wonderful. Otherwise maybe not so great because who knows which channel is the best channel to search in for that content? In other words one would have to know in advance which channel has the content you want.

    If it’s global I’ll upgrade right away. Thanks for the article.
    Nov 22, 2015. 10:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Does It Matter That iPad Pro Isn't A Notebook Replacement?  [View article]
    @Abbyowner: Completely agree. I've been using an iPad 1 since it was introduced, mainly for reading newspapers online, and am very comfortable with it. Apple's problem is that their products last a long time.
    Nov 20, 2015. 02:13 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple down 3% as chip supplier plunges following Q3 report (updated)  [View news story]
    Here's the full report: http://bit.ly/1PPO4LK

    Note this:
    At the end of Q3 2015, our total inventory level was $139 million (or ~71 days), an increase of $19 million over the prior quarter. This represents a 7 day increase in our days of inventory. We are managing our inventory levels tightly and we feel this level is appropriate in order to service our current customer backlog. During Q4 2015 we expect inventory value and inventory days to decrease from Q3 2015 as we service a number of high volume product launches in the quarter.

    Draw your own conclusions.
    Oct 26, 2015. 10:57 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: A Misunderstood Giant  [View instapost]
    Well buy some!
    Oct 7, 2015. 11:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: A Misunderstood Giant  [View instapost]
    As I've said before, you shouldn't own APPL unless you own Apple products. And SA authors shouldn't write about AAPL if they don't own the products. Otherwise you never get it. Excellent analysis of a complex topic Gregg Rosenberg.
    Oct 6, 2015. 12:53 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
311 Comments
998 Likes