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  • Apple: The Key Trend Remains Intact [View article]
    I feel that after tax net income is a better metric to value Apple by than EPS which is currently being inflated by the buybacks.

    The bad news is that annual net income peaked in 2012 at 41.733B and was 39.510B last year, -2.233B less than 2 years ago. While the company has been strongly growing revenues, the costs associated with those revenues have spiked for reasons we all understand including new product development, market expansion and, in particular, the dividend distributions.

    The good news is that Net Income for 2015 looks to print at about 52.8B, a phenomenal 33% boost over last year. That’s the kind of number you can take to the bank rather than EPS which is clearly being controlled by the buyback program.

    I don’t disagree with Stone Fox’s premise. Investors buy earnings and any company that can increase earnings by a third with a market cap of 692 billions is a great business to own. But the real earnings are revealed on the bottom line.
    Aug 1, 2015. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Pay's Leverage Will Keep Royalty Rates Intact - If Not Lead To Something Greater [View article]
    Or, Apple creates its own credit institution offering credit to its existing customers replacing steps 1 and 6 in the johnnyclueless loop. Which is what many expected when Apple first introduced Apple Pay. At which point Apple reaps the beaucoup $$$ Brian Nichols is talking about.
    Jun 10, 2015. 08:12 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why Apple Is Weak Since Earnings [View article]
    From the conference call replying to Gene Munster:

    Tim Cook - CEO
    Yeah, sure. Our current estimate is that about 20% of the active installed base has upgraded to a 6 or 6 plus. And so as I look at that number, that suggests there’s plenty of upgrade headroom in addition to we want to keep inviting over as many switchers as we can. So between both of those and the first time buyers as well, it seems really, really good right now.
    May 7, 2015. 07:04 PM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: Astonishingly Good [View article]
    RightArnieW! But the iCar only works if you own an iPhone :)
    Apr 28, 2015. 10:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Watch Strategy Embraces The 80-20 Rule [View article]
    Agreed Lawrence Kraman. And 80% of problems also come from 20% of your customers (not necessarily the same 20% that give you the profits).

    I don’t see the same refresh potential as the author suggests unless Apple makes significant annual hardware changes, al la iPhone. Remember that the hallmark of Apple products is they are built to last. I still use the original iPad 1 every day as a browser. It’s now 5 years old. The OS and memory aren’t great but the hardware works like it did out of the box.

    Updates work for the phones because of subsidies and 2 year contracts. Not so for watches and iPads.
    Apr 19, 2015. 10:28 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch: Understanding Early Sales Data [View article]
    I finally LOL on SA. Thanks!
    Apr 13, 2015. 10:17 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch: Understanding Early Sales Data [View article]
    Horace has an interesting amplification of the effect of gold watches on the ASP. It doesn't take a lot of gold watches being given as gifts to loved ones in China to skew the ASP.

    (Skip the part about the new iBook.)
    Apr 13, 2015. 10:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch reviews arrive; SocGen downgrades to Hold [View news story]
    Everyone of the quotes on the Business Insider (a well known Apple hater) story are take out of context. As I mentioned when I posted the link (that links to the FULL text of the 11 reviews), you can only get a sense of how well received this watch has been by the tech community by reading the full reviews. I can't remember any Apple product that has ever gotten reviews this positive.

    The NY Times, WSJ, Daring Fireball, The Verge, Bloomberg, Re/Code, Yahoo Tech, Techpinions, CNET, USA Today and Mashable are the most widely read tech reviews today. They were chosen for their credibility in the market and regularly dis Apple when they need to.
    Apr 9, 2015. 12:48 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch reviews arrive; SocGen downgrades to Hold [View news story]
    The Maps function tells you to turn left or right by using a distinct tap and sound for each direction. No need to look at the watch.
    Apr 8, 2015. 04:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch reviews arrive; SocGen downgrades to Hold [View news story]
    Try reading the FULL reviews, not just snippets. Fortune published links to them all. You'll be surprised in contrast to what the SA author chose to quote.
    Apr 8, 2015. 03:12 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Poll: Only 5.4% of U.S. iPhone owners "very likely" to buy Apple Watch [View news story]
    Don't wear a watch and am constantly asking my wife what time is is. Will certainly buy and Apple watch.
    Jan 3, 2015. 12:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Share Repurchases Have Benefited Shareholders: Follow-Up [View article]
    I agree Kimland. The problem was that Apple had ~$125 Billion overseas that it did not want to repatriate and pay US taxes on. Their options were extremely limited in terms of overseas investment. The smart approach was to do what they did: borrow against their "cash" at historically low interest rates and buy back shares they felt were trading below the company’s intrinsic value. IMHO, it was a brilliant move to take advantage of the low rates and do something the company had never done (or been in a position to do) before. Indeed, WEB gave that advice to Jobs.

    For long term holders, that is an enormous benefit. If your basis is low, say $40, your yield is 4.7% in one of the safest businesses on the planet. It also put a floor under the stock which sent the bears running. I estimated the value of the buyback when it was announced at $100/share and I will have realized that by the end of next year. (Actually more since the dividend and buyback have been increased.)
    Dec 17, 2014. 06:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Market Maker Price Range Forecast Update [View article]
    Always a good read Peter that I consistantly look forward to. Thanks!
    Dec 5, 2014. 12:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Short Interest Hits Multi-Year Low [View article]
    @ MattZN2: I have a chart on Google Docs with data from Yahoo finance that shows the drawdowns in any equity over ten years. Six months after that bottom for AAPL shorts in 2012 began a 2 year drawdown in AAPL shares that only ended on 7/21/14. A pretty rough patch for long term APPL investors. That came on the heels of an 18 month draw down that started on 12/24/07.

    So, over the past 7 years AAPL longs were in drawdown half the time. They could of course make money during that time with covered options, but now the stock pays a dividend. I'll leave it to the options experts to figure out the best strategy next time AAPL enters a period of extended drawdowns. Great business and wonderful company but it is a volatile stock.
    Nov 25, 2014. 06:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Watch Out Apple, Xiaomi Is Coming To Each One Of Your Segments [View article]
    @Cao Nima: Your comments mirror my conversations with my business partners in Shanghai. The price of Apple devices signifies the owner's arrival at the stratum of success. They are not looking for cheaper Apple devices. And I wouldn't be surprised if China becomes the largest market segment for the gold Apple watch when it arrives there.
    Nov 18, 2014. 09:34 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment