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rickraphael

rickraphael
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  • Apple's Share Repurchases Have Benefited Shareholders: Follow-Up [View article]
    I agree Kimland. The problem was that Apple had ~$125 Billion overseas that it did not want to repatriate and pay US taxes on. Their options were extremely limited in terms of overseas investment. The smart approach was to do what they did: borrow against their "cash" at historically low interest rates and buy back shares they felt were trading below the company’s intrinsic value. IMHO, it was a brilliant move to take advantage of the low rates and do something the company had never done (or been in a position to do) before. Indeed, WEB gave that advice to Jobs.

    For long term holders, that is an enormous benefit. If your basis is low, say $40, your yield is 4.7% in one of the safest businesses on the planet. It also put a floor under the stock which sent the bears running. I estimated the value of the buyback when it was announced at $100/share and I will have realized that by the end of next year. (Actually more since the dividend and buyback have been increased.)
    Dec 17, 2014. 06:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Market Maker Price Range Forecast Update [View article]
    Always a good read Peter that I consistantly look forward to. Thanks!
    Dec 5, 2014. 12:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Short Interest Hits Multi-Year Low [View article]
    @ MattZN2: I have a chart on Google Docs with data from Yahoo finance that shows the drawdowns in any equity over ten years. Six months after that bottom for AAPL shorts in 2012 began a 2 year drawdown in AAPL shares that only ended on 7/21/14. A pretty rough patch for long term APPL investors. That came on the heels of an 18 month draw down that started on 12/24/07.

    So, over the past 7 years AAPL longs were in drawdown half the time. They could of course make money during that time with covered options, but now the stock pays a dividend. I'll leave it to the options experts to figure out the best strategy next time AAPL enters a period of extended drawdowns. Great business and wonderful company but it is a volatile stock.
    Nov 25, 2014. 06:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Watch Out Apple, Xiaomi Is Coming To Each One Of Your Segments [View article]
    @Cao Nima: Your comments mirror my conversations with my business partners in Shanghai. The price of Apple devices signifies the owner's arrival at the stratum of success. They are not looking for cheaper Apple devices. And I wouldn't be surprised if China becomes the largest market segment for the gold Apple watch when it arrives there.
    Nov 18, 2014. 09:34 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Should Not Buy Tesla Motors [View article]
    Buying Tesla would be Apple’s Google moment. Like Google buying Motorola, sounded like a good idea at the time…
    Nov 17, 2014. 09:09 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2015 Forecast: Apple iPhone - $650 In Revenue Per Unit [View article]
    It was a no brainer when they first announced the capital return program at $100B in 2012 which was worth $100 over three years to each shareholder at that time (pre split). They then bumped it to 130B through 2015 which is $130/share. No brains required if you understood the simple math and held the stock.
    Nov 3, 2014. 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Breaking The Law (Of Large Numbers) And Getting Away With It [View article]
    Gregg:
    You hit all my hot buttons in this well thought out, penetrating analysis:
    Bob Shiller, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett, Horace Dedieu, "The One Hour China Book" (predicting 40% of the world's middle class will live in Asia within 20 years) and of course "The Law of Large Numbers".

    It looks like we came to the same conclusions at the same time in 2012. It's not that you or I are geniuses, but that your article reflects the economic and financial thinking of men who truly are geniuses. The level of deep thought you present is remarkable for an SA article. Bravo and thank you for this fine analysis. I look forward to your follow up articles!
    Nov 3, 2014. 08:37 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Blair's Incredible Journey - Apple's Blowout Launch [View article]
    An asset without a guaranteed income stream and terminal value is a speculation with the hope of gain and the risk of loss. Some gamblers earn money speculating in stocks and, if they are lucky, then invest the proceeds in Treasuries and other investments with a contractual basis for their returns. This is why bond holders abhor inflation and speculators love it.

    I’m not implying that speculators don’t make money; some do extremely well. I do say that that an asset without a guaranteed return is a speculation, not an investment. See Benjamin Graham.
    Oct 6, 2014. 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Blair's Incredible Journey - Apple's Blowout Launch [View article]
    Obviously Wall Street is often wrong. Stocks are speculations, not investments.
    Oct 1, 2014. 07:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Where The Bears Have It Wrong [View article]
    Is anyone else getting bored with the All Blair All The Time Channel here? Maybe they should change the name of the web site to Seeking Blair. Sheesh, enough already with this lunatic.
    Sep 30, 2014. 06:27 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Incredible 10 Million Unit Sales-Fact [View article]
    What would really make me happy is not seeing his face in the "Recommended for you" popup at the bottom of my SA page :)
    Sep 29, 2014. 06:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Blair's Analysis Of Apple's 10 Million First Weekend Sales Is Way Off Base [View article]
    I've never seen anyone keep kneecapping himself like Blair unless it was Rocco Pendola a couple of years ago. Eventually everyone tunes them out.

    I love it when Chuck and others rebut Blair. That way I get the gist of the nonsense without giving him the satisfaction of a click.
    Sep 29, 2014. 05:24 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Blair's Analysis Of Apple's 10 Million First Weekend Sales Is Way Off Base [View article]
    Stocks are not investment grade paper. Wise investors “speculate” with money at risk in stocks and then invest the proceeds in bonds and other assets with contractually guaranteed income streams. A stock, especially the common, is never an investment.

    Only a fool (or someone with real insider info) speculates on the shares of the company that pays his salary. If the unexpected happens he’s out both the income and his savings. So, no surprise that Apple executives sell their vested shares immediately. So do many others with vesting shares. They don't need the money to live on today, they need it for tomorrow. You mistake speculators for investors, as do most who write for SA.
    Sep 29, 2014. 05:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Incredible 10 Million Unit Sales-Fact [View article]
    Stopped reading the Blair Chronicles over a year ago. A one trick pony with no insights as far as Apple is concerned.
    Sep 29, 2014. 02:52 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Will Do A Television Set [View article]
    I think the Samsung zombies should just put the phone where the sun don't shine. The same place their heads are.
    Sep 25, 2014. 07:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
290 Comments
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