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rickraphael

rickraphael
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  • A Better Entry Point For Apple Will Become Available For Patient Investors [View article]
    @pocohonta:
    My sentiment exactly! I’m a long term value investor (in APPL) not a tech trader but I do study the statistical anaysis of AAPl and I noticed the anomoly in AAPL’s 5 year trend last November (2013) and predicted $750 by September of this year (107.14 split adjusted). I’m sticking to that and see further momentum into late winter if Apple delivers the goods as promised unless Putin decides to start WW III.

    That said, AAPL is a value because Job’s left a money making machine with a formula and a team for product development and production in the hands of the man who made Apple into the most profitable tech company in history. It’s also a seasonal stock and there will be good entry points in the spring of next year after the winter run up off the product intros. But nothing like the numbers opined here.

    To see APPL at a 40% - 50% discount again will take another stiff recession. That recession will come but not until we see an inversion of the yield curve which, in my opinion, is 3-4 years off. To do tech analysis with AAPL is is essential to understand the statistical volatility of the stock.
    Aug 3 06:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Is It Time To Take Profits? [View article]
    I haven't run a DDM in a long time but when I was doing them regularly I rarely saw a stock trading above it's DD valuation, so this is unusual. The reason being that the DDM model is available to all traders and the history of dividend increases is common knowledge. So dividend stocks were generally fully valued.

    The caveat is that APPL has only 2 years of data to draw a dividend growth rate conclusion from and that's the value that determines the valuation. The market apparently disagrees with you but that doesn't mean you're wrong, just that you're planning for higher dividend increases than the market as whole.

    Nice job! I've been waiting for someone to make a DDM projection like this. Thanks for doing the work.
    Jun 1 02:55 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Bears Can't Walk And Chew Gum, Stock Heading To $700 [View article]
    MB has become so predictable that you know who wrote the article just from the headline. I gave up clicking on that clown long ago. There have been a few like him before on SA who eventually bit the dust. I expect in a year he and his histrionics will be history.
    May 28 02:14 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iPhone 6 Expected To See Robust Demand [View article]
    Agree. I got suckered too! Won't make that mistake again.
    May 22 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Watch The Gap: Apple's Long And Twisted Pricing Journey [View article]
    He teaches Valuation at NYU's Stern School of Business. I think you can get the answers you're looking for for about $150K.
    Apr 29 10:35 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Watch The Gap: Apple's Long And Twisted Pricing Journey [View article]
    Discounted cash flow analyses are a dime a dozen and generally worth about that much. But I’ve followed Damodaran for about 12 years and his work is rigorous and his spreadsheets are generally available for you to view and edit to do your own prognostication at his blog: http://bit.ly/18ia7lE. His work is the best available on Apple. Glad to see his perspective on Apple once again. He and Horace Dediu are the only authors who can speak authoratatively on Apple to me.
    Apr 29 07:14 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deep Dive Into Apple's Gross Margins And What It Means Going Forward [View article]
    @ Chuck,
    As I wrote in a comment last April on a Bill Maurer article when the decline in Apple's gross margins had commentators tearing their hair out over the drop from 47.37% to 38.63% (as reported), it’s good that you are also keeping an eye on the long term average gross margin. It was 39.81% over 5 years at this time last year. You’ve done something similar here which is enlightening to read.

    A sustainable gross margin of 40% or higher means that the business is operating almost as a monopoly with unrestrained pricing power in an industry with little or no competition. And I believe that is the case for Apple despite the bears’ prognostications. The only metric they can point to is market share when they should be looking at the gross margins for Apple and the competition. I think gross margins are the toughest metric for a business to maintain and points to a sustainable advantage over its competitors.
    Apr 29 11:52 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Every Dividend Income Investor Should Own Apple Now [View article]
    Surprising that no none has mentioned the new dividend reinvestment possibilities the split brings into play. This, I think, will be huge and is likely the main reason for the split. Combined with the promised annual increase in the dividend, the post split price per share finally makes dividend reinvestment in AAPL shares a reality for smaller shareholders.
    Apr 27 01:30 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will Apple's Stock Split Impact Its Shareholders? [View article]
    @ Mark Hyer
    No one anywhere that I've seen has mentioned the reinvestment of dividends to compound the value of your AAPL investment after the split except you. It is, I believe, the most important outcome of the split and absolutely benefits the small investor with a long time horizon immensely. Good for you!

    My wife and I own a goodly number of AAPL shares but they are split up across 4 IRAs so no possibility of dividend reinvestment until the board decided on the split. Assuming Apple can introduce new product lines that will return growth to the company, then this is a great opportunity.
    Apr 27 01:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The 5 Reasons Apple's Earnings Report Was Huge [View article]
    @vinchainsaw
    Not to get into an extended back and forth, but I have friends worth millions who won’t touch a stock over $100. I don’t agree with them but it is considered a valid investment theory by some who feel they can make money on the volatility created by lots of small investors. $550 is a lot of money for some people, say the price of an iPad mini, but $80 is just dinner out. Some investors play the psychology of this.

    My point was that the split may encourage some small investors to take advantage of what Apple's Board obviously thinks is a great opportunity in the company. Small investors who'd otherwise pass.

    BTW, my missed opportunity was in the days of the pit!
    Apr 24 11:40 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: What Do The Bears Say Now? [View article]
    @Zipper0
    Your points on the foreign debt markets are excellent.

    On China, Cook knows that real growth in the next ten years is going to come from Asia where the middles class is exploding, not the US or Europe where it’s shrinking. If Apple holds its own in the West and grows 10% per year in the East and the rest of the developing world, watch out.
    Apr 24 11:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: What Do The Bears Say Now? [View article]
    @HuFlungdung
    I stopped watching CNBC a month after they hired Melissa Lee. Been years now since I watched the show. Pointless waste of time.
    Apr 24 11:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ladies And Gentlemen, May I Introduce To You The Financial Engineer Of The Year: Apple Inc. [View article]
    The basic question for a company contemplating the purchase of another business is whether it’s cheaper to buy the other company or invest the money to build and compete with it. Apple obviously doesn’t see a better business opportunity for $100 billion right now than Apple itself, otherwise they would buy other businesses. Buy back your own shares is then the third option and Apple is doing just that.

    Since an honest board must perform due diligence in either case, Apple knows something the Street doesn’t, nor do we. “Financial engineering” has negative connotations but in this case I think it’s sound investment management.
    Apr 24 10:54 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: What Do The Bears Say Now? [View article]
    The Times actually changed the headline on that story. Last night it read, “Apple’s Profit Climbs but the Cracks are Showing”. Revisionist history on the fly from the paper of record!
    Apr 24 10:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 5 Reasons Apple's Earnings Report Was Huge [View article]
    @vinchainsaw:
    Many, many years ago I came into about $10,000. I was looking for an investment opportunity and I really liked Berkshire Hathaway which was selling for about $8,500 at the time. I was a very young investor and, as much as I loved the company, I couldn’t see putting all my eggs in one basket, so I passed. Meanwhile, Berkshire zoomed and I missed out on a 22 bagger.

    Years later, WEB created Berkshire’s B class at 1/30th the price of the A shares. I bought the B shares and made a few bucks but nothing like what I’d have had if he’d been regularly splitting the stock.

    I understand stock splits painfully well, but you’ll never understand the opportunity the split offers a small investor if you haven’t had that experience.
    Apr 24 10:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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