Yossel

10 Comments

    • ON: Fri Jun 13th 12:42 PM
      Commented on:
      ETFs For When Oil Falls
      An alternative and appealing (to me) strategy is to go long natural gas incrementally as oil declines, given the historical trend of gas prices to replicate those of oil with a nine-month delay!
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    • ON: Sat May 17th 14:33 PM
      Commented on:
      China: No, But This Time Really Is Different
      Michael: Timing is everything, and I fear the timing of your observations and analysis is propitious. Best, Yossel
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    • ON: Wed Apr 9th 12:19 PM
      Commented on:
      China's Agriculture Sector Is Ripe for Investment
      In re the five comments above: Confucious said that collective wisdom advances the cause. Thanks, guys!
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    • ON: Sat Apr 5th 11:36 AM
      Commented on:
      It's Not the Fault of Hedge Fund Managers That They Make So Much Money
      What a delightful, enlightened and balanced assessment! Many thanks and all good wishes!
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    • ON: Wed Mar 19th 12:38 PM
      Commented on:
      China Stocks: Risks Ahead
      Interesting post, followed by a comment from GAZ, whose website is indispensible for any investor wanting an unvarnished and up-to-date view of the larger Chinese economy. A real eyeopener, GAZ !
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    • ON: Sun Dec 16th 11:53 AM
      Commented on:
      A Top Secret Investment Opportunity: Don't Fight the Fed!
      Many thanks for a calm, quiet, rational, balanced and illuminating analysis of the circus!
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    • ON: Thu Sep 27th 11:47 AM
      Commented on:
      Understanding Contrarianism and Bubbles
      Dear David: I envy your presience, but would like to add an old man's personal perspective in regard to oil and the dollar: Back in the bad old days when we had an oil shock and were lined up pushing our cars to gas stations, it occured to some of us that we no longer "owned" our economy but were "renting" it from OPEC, working for the landlord or rather the energy lord. So we decided that we would find a way to recapture our exhobitant rents. We ground down the dollar, so that there was only one place left in the world where you could actually get good value for it: right here. And those petro-dollars came home to roost, in return for our bonds and bills and buildings and stocks and products. But given the huge difference in scale, we had more than enough bonds and bills and buildings and stocks and products to go around, so all that direct and indirect investment in reverted oil dollars simply served to better our own economy. That's how we got our groove back! Best, Yossel
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    • ON: Sun Aug 19th 11:43 AM
      Commented on:
      Barron's Debunks Cramer
      Over 50% of American households own equities, either directly or indirectly. In a society that generally eschews higher education, and is woefully less educated than its closest ten competitors, Cramer raises awareness. That is a social good. The fact that he's occasionally prescient is a bonus.
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    • ON: Sun Aug 12th 12:16 PM
      Commented on:
      The 'Plunge Protection Team' Working Overtime: A Play-By-Play
      Best narrative -- and most likely explanation of events -- I've seen in unclassified commentary.
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    • ON: Sun Aug 5th 10:56 AM
      Commented on:
      Friday's Action Was A Much-Needed Dose of Reality
      Dear Ed:
      I share your frustration and anger, but the answer is more complicated than program trading -- though that plays a major role in swift downdrafts. The fundamental flaw in the credit market was first described by a man named Ponzi. Mortgages are bundled and sold as a mixed bag with an attractive return on a putative price. That original price changes with the changing ability/willingness of the underlyting mortgage holders to honor their debts. But the credit market fails to indicate that changing value accurately (failing to "mark to market"). Meanwhile, the original bundles of mortgages are used as collateral for additional borrowing -- at their originbal putative face value. So you get an inverted pyramid of escalating debt bult on the foundation of an asset that is not marked to market, and asset whose value is in fact deteriorating. At some point, a kid in the crowd points out that the Emperor clothes are fast disappearing, i.e. that the value of the asset is crumbling, and the whole pyramid crumbles with it. That is horrible news for thosed leveraged into the pyramid's upper tiers. It's devastating for those who are going to lose their homes. But its not something the Fed can or should try to fix. When it runs its course, the equities market, which had nothing to do the the debacle except so far as in reflecting the values of the homes, the builders, and the morgage buyers, will stop acting irrationally and return to the normalcy of reflecting the strength or weakness of the underlying economy and the profit or loss of its corporate players. For those leveraged on equities rather than bonds, like me, the catch is that the market can act irratioinally longer than I can stay solvent. But so far its early days.
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