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Waldo Mushman

Waldo Mushman
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  • China-Biotics vs. Spreadtrum Communications: Why AIC Filings Matter [View article]
    Of recent vintage you might want to check other shorts I have championed?... CCA is being plagued by a juvenile impostor. Take note of the spelling.

    CSKI -SEC investigation
    ONP - Internal investigation, 5 class actions, underwriter suspends coverage
    CHNG - 1 class action, paid PR firm suspends coverage, discloses default on loans and posts a non-reliance notice in the 10-Q
    CMFO - Joke Juice fraud should collapse shortly

    CCA has been on CMFO and ONP. Trying to lure him into CSKI. Made opening investigations of LIWA, CBTO, and SKBI and have either let them rest or dropped them.

    Other obvious losers that I am not in are CGA and CCME.

    You now have my personal play list for China trash. I don't ever get so drunk to consider any of these RTO's worthy of a seconds look. Now you owe it to us to document the recent touts by the people who recommend this toad.

    John
    Sep 2, 2010. 11:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CHBT Store Verification Results Start Rolling In [View instapost]
    Thats the ticket. They had 100 stores but they closed them all and replaced them with 100 outlets. You are brilliant. What a nimble management team CHBT is blessed with. Lets shut down the miraculously profitable Stores and replace them with shelves in somebody elses convenience store.

    You seem to forget the reason for this exercise. CHBT responds to Citron's charge that they have no stores by posting a list of 100 addresses. Someone (CCA) is having people go to each of those locations and take pictures. You are rhetorically excusing CHBT for whatever is found.

    Granted the size of the revenue is not crucial but the misleading presentation of the retail operation hints very strongly that the bulk sales are equally misrepresented.

    The ultimate issue is whether the sales occured or not and it is clear to me that CHBT does not sell the product they claim. Retail or wholesale.

    John
    Sep 1, 2010. 07:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CHBT Store Verification Results Start Rolling In [View instapost]
    You seem to ignore the fact that they specifically used the word STORE in the 2007 - 08 10-Ks. Jason Evander references 111 stores which I believe is from a CHBT presentation. Does your flexible mind believe that these stores have morphed into outlets and no longer exist? It is very kind of you to allow them to modify the claims they make as we move forward.

    Next year will your flexible mind accept "113 electrical outlets" in our new building where we "store" our product?

    John
    Sep 1, 2010. 06:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CHBT Store Verification Results Start Rolling In [View instapost]
    It is a Chinese publication. They do not have any of the content in English.

    John
    Sep 1, 2010. 06:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CHBT Store Verification Results Start Rolling In [View instapost]
    And you will take note that they make it clear they own and operate the Yogurt STORE which has a front door, large brand posters, a clerk, and the general things that might be called store fixtures.

    In the second picture they clearly identify the object as a COUNTER. CHBT makes it transparently clear that they are making arrangements with the grocery chain for them to sell CHBT's product in a store that is not CHBT's.

    They are lying and you are scrambling to see how many variations of reality are in the thesaurus.

    John
    Sep 1, 2010. 06:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China-Biotics vs. Spreadtrum Communications: Why AIC Filings Matter [View article]
    I will repeat the cogent answer I provided you earlier.

    Past preformance is no assurance of future results. The reason for these forums is to provide adequate information for investors to make an investment judgement on. You are required to make up your own mind. No one is going to give you a guarantee.

    Read the posts. It takes extremely large risk tolerance to be in any of these Chinese RTO's much less one that is max-shorted and subject to continuing adverse press.

    John
    Sep 1, 2010. 06:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CHBT Store Verification Results Start Rolling In [View instapost]
    All good information but CHBT never described anything even vaguely resembling your scenario. The underlying issue is that CHBT lied about the existence of stores. It is a very pained contortion to now speculate that they were talking about anything other than stand alone store front dedicated retail outlets. They use exactly that language in describing what they operated. They prersent a full color picture on their web site with the tag "Retail Outlet" It is only now that the apologists see how obscure they can be to somehow make the previous CHBT claims fit the newly revealed reality.

    They are lying. They don't have the revenue. They don't have the money.

    John
    Sep 1, 2010. 05:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CHBT Store Verification Results Start Rolling In [View instapost]
    I am wrong about the list of stores/...I mean outlets... being gone. It is still there. Right underneath the full color picture of what CHBT describes as a "retail outlet" . I was taken with the doors on the front of the space and large street signs. The display window has a very large smiley picture of (I am sure) healthy users. I kept looking but I can't seem to find the shelving. I am easily confused but why would they show a picture of a 400-500 square foot storefront location if they really meant that an "outlet" was 3 shelves?

    John
    Sep 1, 2010. 04:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CHBT Store Verification Results Start Rolling In [View instapost]
    Seems that the longs are practicing revisionist history. CHBT has represented the sales channel frequently as being made up of stand alone retail outlets.

    2007 10-K......We opened our first store in Shanghai in March 2006, and plan to open additional Shining stores in Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shenyang, Harbin and Heilongjiang. We intend to open over 300 stores over the next two years. At the end of March 2007, we had opened a total of nine stores in
    Shanghai.

    2008 10-K ....sale of our products to the other metropolitan cities in China through a combination of the traditional
    distribution channels and dedicated Shining stores. From March 2006, when we opened our first store in Shanghai,
    we have a total of 60 stores as of March 31, 2008......

    2009 10-K.....At March 2009, we had 106 Shining branded outlets in Shanghai and 12 other major
    cities in China.....

    Jason Nevader ...."As of March 31, 2010, the Company had 111 retail stores to sell its Shining branded probiotics supplements, which is an increase of 1 store from its 110 retail stores as of September 30, 2008."

    Jason "The Evader" Nevader...."Given the low sales volume of the retail stores, increasing lease costs, and higher labor costs, the company has continued to close retail stores in this quarter. "

    You will also notice that the link Jason had to the list of stores has been zapped and it looks like CHBT pulled the list of stores from the web site. Now we can't even find the store in their imagination.

    The retail outlets do not exist. They never did exist. All the revenue from earlier years was a complete fabrication. They had no earnings, they had no cash. Investors are the only customers they have.

    John
    Sep 1, 2010. 02:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China-Biotics: Shorts Found a Way to Cover [View article]
    Last seasons batting averages are no indication of future performance. Your question implies a need for certainty that does not exist in the stock market. It is of little consequence if a company is ultimately guilty or not, the investor has to determine today if the investment will produce a profit. You are better advised to review the 32 analysts who cover Apple and see which ones accurately predicted the I-Phone margins.

    There are no assurances and the job an investor ought to welcome is looking at the information and making up their own mind. Are you going to do that or are you going to sit on the fence making pronouncements?

    John
    Sep 1, 2010. 01:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China-Biotics: Shorts Found a Way to Cover [View article]
    For your consideration...

    The claims of limited revenue (8%) from the "outlets" is as of this year. In 2008 "outlets" were the only source of revenue they had. In 2009 those "outlet" shelves were responsible for generating some mysterious percentage of the annual volume.

    Let us man up to the fact that CHBT is suggesting that virtually every one of the ballyhooed "outlets" is at best a retail reseller. How did these puny distribution channels generate the claimed volume in previous years? If the volume didn't exist, where did the cash??? come from?

    You can't deposit projections. CHBT didn't sell what they claim in earlier years and they don't have the cash or assets they currently claim.

    John
    Sep 1, 2010. 12:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 12 Signs and 158 Reasons Investors Should Avoid Chinese RTO Stocks [View article]
    You are opening the pages of a very convoluted story. The explanation used to justify an VIE (Variable interest entity) structure is due to the fact that the Chinese government precludes foriegn ownership of certain stategic business activities. Lets use CHNG which is involved in natural gas as the example. American investors are sold shares in the publicly traded US entity and what they own is a set of contractual rights to control and at their option purchase the China based operating entity. So the US parent can buy CHNG/china at a nominal price and control the business. But the threshold reason for the VIE in the first place was to allow outside participation in a restricted industry. In other words, the option to buy the operating company can never be exercised because foriegn ownership is prohibited in exactly the industry you have invested in.

    It absolutely astounds me that that this fact is lost on investors. The only thing they own is a non-enforceable claim on off shore assets. The only source of profit is selling that set of promises to a bigger fool.

    John
    Sep 1, 2010. 12:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China-Biotics: Shorts Found a Way to Cover [View article]
    So the list you post of their locations turns out to be shelves in the local A&P. I have to imagine that you are starting to feel very foolish.

    Isn't it great that they decided to stick exactly enough grocery store on the list to match the number of "locations" they bragged about in the SEC filings? I didn't see restocking clerks listed on the help wanted listings, but that is clearly the key employee in this organization.

    I just heard that they have cancelled the long awaited presentation at the Roth confab. Maybe they are busy making route sales and checking on product placement.

    This one has blown up in your face and I would suggest you rerun your traps and make very sure you want to keep your name prominently associated with this Hindenberg.

    John
    Aug 31, 2010. 01:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China-Biotics: Shorts Found a Way to Cover [View article]
    Let me just tackle one of your most egregious fantasies. The SAIC documents are extremely relevant and provide compelling evidence of what a Chinese company is actually doing. Today's article by CCA covers CHBT in detail and your cavalier approach to those official records borders on criminal negligence.

    Here is a link to a third party source without a dog in this fight that includes a written opinion from a Chinese practicing attorney.
    geoinvesting.com/forum...

    Your link on the SAIC might be worth reviewing. I am Birdman on the extended thread and I suspect that the writer has modified his position from the original post.

    Dismissing the SAIC's essentially requires you to accept management maintaining and submitting fraudulent records to someone. You are recommending a company that is willing to risk shareholders equity by submitting phony numbers to the regulators. The unanswered logic question I repeatedly ask is "Why would any company go to the time and expense, taking identifiable legal and financial risks, to file fraudulent numbers when they could file accurate numbers at no expense, no additional effort, and fulfill the reasonable expectation of honesty?"

    John
    Aug 31, 2010. 11:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China-Biotics: Shorts Found a Way to Cover [View article]
    Why do you dim bulbs always suspect that a poster uses multiple aliases. What possible value would it have? CCA's opinion is his. My opinion is mine and quite frequently far different. I am not anonymous and never have been. You can easily find my cell number, my e-mail address, my home address, pictures of sculpture in my back yard and links to several stories about me in addition to a federal lawsuit filed in NJ all "revealed" on the Yahoo board.

    Get over your infantile boogie man superstitions and try asking something relevant or more constructively, disprove something.

    John
    Aug 31, 2010. 10:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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