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Waldo Mushman

Waldo Mushman
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  • Ocean Rig Trades 50% Below Book Value [View article]
    The self interest by Economou might be the major plus in this thesis. Conversion to an MLP would provide him immediate capital, access to new equity and the improved likelihood of refinance. In addition the MLP structure regularly provides the "management" arm of the partnership 50% of the upside. Economou could follow the Richard Kinder plan and effectively own 50% of the new MLP as an individual in addition to the DRYS ownership.

    New MLP's are getting gobbled up by the market indifferent to the blatant flaws and outrageous fee structures.

    Looks to me like a reasonable shot when and if the MLP starts to jell.

    John
    Mar 19, 2013. 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AsiaInfo-Linkage: SEC Scrutiny And Concerns Over Financials Lead To High Risk Of Go-Private Deal Collapsing [View article]
    Ben-

    ASIA was a potential short target for me in late 2011. I had gotten all the SAIC's for the myriad of mail box companies they have and it was clear that the entire company is/was a house of cards. The reason we never pursued it was because of the purposeful complexity they had created. As you can easily see they have built a maze of inter-related entities (without rational business purpose). Trying to cogently present the data was an overwhelming task.

    The bottom line was that revenues were about 1/10 of what they tell the investors and they were losing substantial amounts of money.

    It is a conundrum when thinking about large investment houses buying out Chinese frauds. If the buyout actually occurs the investors are saved from a wipe out and the beating falls to better informed players. There is much anecdotal evidence that the deals as reported ignore additional underlying considerations that justify the seemingly stupid buyouts. Maybe the best resolution for all parties is a successful going private deal.

    ASIA hadn't crossed my mind for quite a while so I had to jump in just for old times sake. Thanks for the excellent article.

    John
    Nov 12, 2012. 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arbitrage Opportunity In China's Focus Media [View article]
    Are you completely addled?

    You are not suggesting any variation of arbitrage.... merely an unprotected long position. Your idiotic suggestion (your understanding of arbitrage?) is that the if the deal blows up the stock is a good buy anyhow.

    Prior to the buy out offer the shares were in the high teens and a rational assessment would expect that level to be a best case scenario if Carlyle walks. More likely you will be looking at 5 -6.

    John Hempton has recently been blogging about the trade (Bronte Capital) and Muddy Waters still has its extensive report posted. If any investor can read those extremely well informed papers and still put money in this toad...they deserve the brutal beating that is the highest probability outcome.

    And yes, I am short.

    John
    Sep 3, 2012. 10:01 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Price Spike Will Be Bigger And Come Sooner Than Expected [View article]
    Let me strongly second your warning against UNG and GAZ. If for some reason you like the long NG theme...DO NOT BUY UNG. Short GAZ and go long something like Linn or Copano.

    John
    Apr 25, 2012. 03:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Price Spike Will Be Bigger And Come Sooner Than Expected [View article]
    Rough guess is that there are 500+ drilling permits in the gas leg of the Eagle Ford that have been shelved. Some players are continuing to drill even though they know that todays market is uneconomic. The risk of losing the lease due to non-performance outweighs the losses they have to take by restricting production and selling at a loss. CHK will keep drilling as long as they have CNOOC money and acreage and won't care about the price.

    Any suspicion that the price of NG is heading north ignores the fire sale potential of billions of MMCF already drilled. Looks like a lousy bet to me. I love the pipelines though.

    John
    Apr 25, 2012. 03:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Indicators: Are We At A Turning Point? [View article]
    I won't bother pointing out how weak the numbers except when they are measured against last year. (A banner year for all) The underlying raw count is sickly. The portion of your position that I agree with is that it looks better. Certainly not good.Your optimism identifies this as a potential turning point.

    I am not that sanguine.

    The tepid numbers you report are achieved in the presence of a historic larding of the economy. Trillions have been expended over the last 3-4 years and we are looking at tepid? Absent the mortgage salves offered by the government, how do those numbers look? And this fall when many of the support programs are shuttered, how do the numbers look going forward? You can brighten up a fire tossing kerosene on the logs for only so long.

    I sorely wish your glimmer of rising hope mentality is correct but I see the gravy train leaving town and some very harsh realities ahead.

    John
    Mar 24, 2012. 09:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Oil & Gas Stocks Pumping Out Big Profits With Strong Mutual Fund Interest [View article]
    O&G ...

    The numbers suck and reflect some significant business model issues that have to be dealt with. As a shareholder I was disappointed and surprised by the bottom line. Don't let the business cloud your understanding of what propane can do.

    Assuming your are on the ground there are probably some very valuable tricks you can learn by understanding what they do.

    Quick question...This string was underwritten by a pump on four names. Do you agree with any of them?

    John
    Mar 17, 2012. 12:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Oil & Gas Stocks Pumping Out Big Profits With Strong Mutual Fund Interest [View article]
    I genuinely appreciate your cogent response....with the clear proviso that I disagree with your conclusions and many of your characterizations. GSF uses a non compressible gel not a gas. Higher production is not merely claimed but documented in a significant portion of the wells they have worked. Quicksilver has recently offered a well to well comparison that very favorably demonstrates GSF viability. There is not any relationship between the science and the stock price. The comfortable fits are constricted, as you point out, but there are numerous formations where propane is clearly a better choice.

    It is worth your time to read through the presentation on their website to better appreciate the science. I am in Austin and am always game for a good argument. john@raqii.com. My treat at Sullivan's.


    John
    Mar 17, 2012. 12:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Possibly The Best Trade Of 2012 Fast Approaching [View article]
    There is so much gas that the suppliers have to beg for pipelines. Enterprise just added significant capacity to thier Eagle Ford mains and it is 100% pre- booked. Until consumption explodes - doubling or tripling- there will be oversupply and operators scrambling hard for any long term contract they can land.

    Imagine having a 8mm well shut in....waiting for better prices..... Jan 05 futures are $4.40. It doesn't happen. Sell what you can now and hope the market catches up later. If you don't drill and you don't sell you start losing acreage that may have cost you $10,000+ per acre 6mil a section which is common spacing on the shales.

    Toss in deals like CNOOC where they have committed to drill another Billion dollars of wells on Chesapeake acreage, almost all of which is gas. As with all gluts, this one will also end and prices will go up significantly. But that event is five or more years down the road. I recommend pipelines. The bright ones are taking advantage of the situation.

    John
    Mar 15, 2012. 05:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Oil & Gas Stocks Pumping Out Big Profits With Strong Mutual Fund Interest [View article]
    O&G Investor-

    Obviously you are well connected in the industry and clearly understand what you are talking about. The comment about LPG which is basically a comment about GasFrac has me puzzled. Would you expand your thoughts on them? I am a shareholder and your mention of density doesn't make sense.

    Thanks in advance if you take the time to answer.

    John
    Mar 15, 2012. 04:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs' Golden Era Is Over: Part II [View article]
    The impact of the threats you describe is probably accurate but the likelihood of those events is the underlying question. Any player in this sector is critically aware of the double edged nature of the leverage. Suggesting that the rules are going to change is a bit far fetched. Suggesting that the spread is going to contract is very likely. I am long the sector and completely dismiss the threat of the mREIT structure being dismantled or the leverage being legislated away.

    Your words of caution of how rapidly the value can evaporate is very appropriate and leads to my question to others who are long.....What is the trip wire you are looking at to forewarn you of the tidal reverse? I am personally using the first Fed hike as my farewell but I don't like the 10-15% ding that equates to. Very interested in other plans.

    As a strong endorsement of the earlier warning.....DO NOT SHORT NLY. I also am expecting a low Fed rate environment well past the November elections. 2013 ????.

    John
    Mar 1, 2012. 11:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unraveling Universal Display [View article]
    Seeing how small a piece of language we can rely on to make a rather trivial point is not what I had hoped for. I repeat my contention that the fact set absent personal biases is virtually the same. Choosing what direction those facts lead is the nature of the stock market.

    Tonights CC was an example. I was delighted by the vagueness. The uncertainty. The seeming incompetence. Stanley was probably deliriously happy and convinced they would soon walk on water. We probably heard the same words but chose to attach completely differrent music. Not quite a death march but it sounded rather bleak. I can't imagine any long being pleased. Were you?

    I am maintaining my short...anybody buying more after that disaster?

    John
    Feb 28, 2012. 10:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unraveling Universal Display [View article]
    "blatantly false as I do not believe any PANL patents have ever been challenged in the U.S.A. "

    Maybe you are making a blatantly false statement too????

    John
    Feb 25, 2012. 07:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unraveling Universal Display [View article]
    Universities v. Fujifilm Corporation (Interference No. 105,771)

    Lead interference counsel for Universal Display Corporation in a patent interference proceeding involving an organic light emitting device.
    Feb 25, 2012. 02:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unraveling Universal Display [View article]
    Almost as if you are looking for every opportunity to reinforce my opinion. Sidney, you need a hobby or some counseling.

    John
    Feb 25, 2012. 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
384 Comments
648 Likes