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oscoutspa

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  • Brazil's OGX Petroleo Outlook As The Nation's Largest Private E&P Operator [View article]
    If you go to this page: http://bit.ly/ZnMaDw?idCanal=gtwTnJ1MEW912...

    Then look for the last item in list:
    Valores Mobiliários negociados e detidos (art. 11 da Instr. CVM nº 358)

    Click on that, then click download on the February report you will see Batista shareholdings. A BOVESPA listed company can't have more than something like 75% of its shares held by insiders. There has to be at least 25% free float for company to be listed.

    Also, from the Q32012 ITR, page 88:
    Centennial Asset Management [Batista]: 61.19%
    Others (shareholders with under 5%): 38.81%
    Mar 25 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil's OGX Petroleo Outlook As The Nation's Largest Private E&P Operator [View article]
    Updated my info on shareholdings for Batista/EBX. Based on OGX CVM filing for Feb 2013 the controlling shareholder (batista/ogx) owns 62.6% of the 3,236,002,290 shares outstanding.

    There's a chance this may have changed since lots of speculation in press (see Bloomberg) that he has pledged stock to banks in the past and is now facing collateral calls. Interestingly last year he purchased on open market roughly 17,000,000 shares at prices ranging from Br 5.85 to Br 6.65. The US$1 billion put he has given the company has a price of Br 6.30 (currently represents about 9.9% increase in shares or shareholder dilution but at a value equal to 1/3 of current market cap).

    Obviously, at least last year, he felt something in the 6.00 Br was a good deal.

    Fascinating to watch all this play out. Would be more so if it wasn't so punishing to my balance sheet!
    Mar 24 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil's OGX Petroleo Outlook As The Nation's Largest Private E&P Operator [View article]
    Thanks, look forward to your thoughts when done traveling. Very helpful to hear that cash squeeze re capex is pretty typical. Here are some updates:

    1) royalty battle, today Supreme Court justice suspended implementation of new royalty law until court can here issue. Presumably thus defers any risk of shut down for now.
    2) Paranaiba gas plant (mpx) commenced commercial production in January. First turbine fully synced with national grid. Second turbine came online in Feb. OGX reported about 2,300 boe gas production for this complex.
    3) offshore, while well #3 seems to be producing at 4,500 bpd first two wells seem to have fluctuating production freaking out market.
    Mar 20 12:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil's OGX Petroleo Outlook As The Nation's Largest Private E&P Operator [View article]
    You might also be interested to see:

    http://bloom.bg/14b6aBj
    Mar 20 12:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil's OGX Petroleo Outlook As The Nation's Largest Private E&P Operator [View article]
    Richard:

    Found your take on OGX interesting but a little confusing. My understanding is that the free float on OGX is more like 38% not 2.4% as you state in point 1. Given most recent articles that Batista may be undergoing margin calls on his stock there is a chance also those float numbers might revise.

    There seems to be a mixing of past information that is out of date. You refer to production to begin in Q3 2012 yet we are in Q1 2013.

    That said, very helpful as I follow this company, and associated X companies closely. Given your background in O&G industry I'm wondering if you have any insight into the problems OGX is having with its first field. Production from its first two wells, drawing on a hydrologically connected structure, have been problematic and all over the board. The third well surprised me in recent data in that it is pulling more than the market seemed to think (4,500 bpd). In my reading on development of Albian carbonate fields in Brazil it seems these structures can be tough to tackle. The market seems to assume that the problems in wells are permanent and unchangeable. I'm betting that will a lot more work (acidification, fracturing, water injection, et al) they may be able to substantially improve or at least stabilize output, perhaps in cooperation with a partner that has the right experience.

    Again drawing on your experience, in the bigger picture, it seems like the market is drawing a lot of conclusions from the first few wells of what will, if they can finance, be a many well, many year project over differing reservoirs. Do you agree? Is this typical of a company at this early stage of production?

    Any thoughts greatly appreciated.
    Mar 19 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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