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jjmc2001

jjmc2001
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  • Olin downgraded to Sell at UBS on dim view of chlor-alkali business [View news story]
    Very shallow analysis by UBS. I am long OLN (for many years) and it ran up recently on unfounded rumors. I will continue to be long but would not chase it above $28.00. Selling it now would be equally unwise.
    Mar 24, 2015. 12:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More Signs Diana Shipping Is Worth Considering (If You Have The Patience) [View article]
    I have owned DSX off and on for several years. Sold it all last week. As we all know the BDI is bouncing around very low levels with no clear upside on the horizon. DSX is doing a good job of hanging in there and resetting contracts albeit at very low levels. I just decided to get out and wait to get back in when things look better for the industry. The supply/demand situation for ships is still not looking good for the rest of 2015.
    Mar 9, 2015. 03:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Potash Corp. As Long-Term Fundamentals Are In Place [View article]
    The barrier to entry is several hundred millions of cost to develop a mine. Of course the mine also needs ready access to transportation infrastructure. Your last statement is correct but think about the billions of btus of oil, coal, oil sands that are just laying around. With all that stuff just laying there why does it cost so much? Cost of capital is a barrier to entry that exists and is real in the potash business. If potash went way up in price you would see a lot more reserves being exploited. That costs money. Brings to mind this quote: Mark Twain has described a mine as "a hole in the ground owned by a liar." There have been a few of those guys raising money on the Canadian stock exchanges over the years.
    Feb 19, 2015. 02:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Attractiveness Of Farmland And Other Alternative Asset Classes [View article]
    Thanks for the article. I think it is a bit of a stretch to look at the aforementioned asset groups and their historic appreciation. I prefer to look at farmland as a conventional real estate investment. i.e. you pay a price and get a return every year based on the lease. If the asset (farmland) goes up in value that is great but should be seen as a bonus. The trend in my area (Midwest) is towards "flex rent" wherein the owner has a base cash rent with some sharing of gross revenue or profits. Using that type of method both parties can weather (pun intended) the uncertainties of crop yields and commodity cycles. I have owned farmland since the seventies and have seen several consecutive years of losses (as a farmer). Now that I am on a flex rent as landlord I have a guaranteed return and may have some upside from the increased asset value. Farmland is a long term holding and is not liquid. I have yet to see a publicly traded entity that is worthy of investment but there are a number equity firms that manage a lot of farmland.
    Feb 12, 2015. 07:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Marathon Oil A Good Investment In The Long Run? [View article]
    @kermitH
    I believe you are referring to MPC assets not MRO. The companies split apart in June of 2011 and MRO took the downstream and MRO kept the E&P. MPLX has also been set up as an MLP to own pipelines.
    Feb 7, 2015. 04:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shorting Realty Income Is A Bad Idea [View article]
    @senBiden
    Although I am hesitant to agree with you based on your identity I have employed the exact strategy you espouse. O has done everything I could ask. I bought it for the safe increasing dividend and it has done that and also moved from $39 to 55. I have elected to sell covered calls at 55 to hype my yield. If the Buyer chooses to take my shares I will await the next buying opportunity and be happy. The last time I checked my total return was excellent on this fine company.
    Jan 30, 2015. 09:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Marathon Oil A Good Investment In The Long Run? [View article]
    @strob
    To elaborate on my comment: Based on their balance sheet and ability to divert cap ex MRO should survive without major problems. By survive I mean the risk of insolvency is low. In terms of being a possible acquisition candidate I view that as a potential win for a shareholder and not a risk. When you invest in a E & P you are betting on the reserves in the ground being exploited for a profit. I would prefer to see MRO do the exploiting but if XOM or CVX pays us above market share price to acquire those assets I will take my proceeds and move on.
    Jan 30, 2015. 08:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Marathon Oil A Good Investment In The Long Run? [View article]
    Thanks for the article and all of the comments. A commenter mentioned the Libyan assets. MRO has excluded them from their guidance for years now although the assets do have value when (if) Libya ever ceases their internal strife.
    I have been long MRO since the spin off of their downstream assets and if you look at their reserves and acreage they will survive a sustained period of lower oil prices due to a strong balance sheet and good production. They may curtail their exploration budget in the Bakken but the reserves are still sitting there. An old adage in the oil patch is that you can acquire reserves more cheaply on Wall Street than you can in the field. MRO could be one of the more attractive acquisition candidates.
    Jan 21, 2015. 10:22 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Black Friday Massacre [View article]
    Thanks for the article. I would point out one thing:
    "And the same can be said of other integrated majors such as Chevron and ConocoPhillips ." COP is no longer an integrated major but is an E&P name.
    Nov 30, 2014. 10:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dry Shipping Stocks: Is It Time To Throw In The Towel? [View article]
    @ Author.
    Your comment about GE is spot on. Unfortunately the retail investor does not get to invest with GE. We get to invest in the public companies that he can manipulate to feather his own nest. He is a master at this.
    Nov 30, 2014. 05:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty won't report Q3 until January [View news story]
    @Brian,
    A very good comment. The market seemed to want some good news to bring this stock back up. Now we will have to wait longer. David Kay is in a tough spot on these calls as he has the ambulance chasing litigators hanging on every word. I suspect we will hear very little from ARCP until the forensic CPAs are through. I continue to be long but nervous.
    Nov 14, 2014. 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital - Enough Already, Thoughts From A Shareholder [View article]
    Why don't we just have Congress appoint Barney Frank to investigate. He sure cleaned up the banking business.
    Nov 5, 2014. 05:53 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital - Enough Already, Thoughts From A Shareholder [View article]
    @stuyoung
    I tend to agree with you that Schorsch knew something was amiss prior to a few weeks ago. Why would the CFO take that responsibility on himself and risk his career and all his stock/options without telling someone?
    I am long ARCP but have been trading around my position trying to take advantage of the weirdness. Like a long tailed cat on a porch full of rocking chairs I am not sleeping well with ARCP.
    Nov 5, 2014. 05:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty's Properties Are Worth 70% Over The Current Stock Price [View article]
    @cfboller.
    "Bankruptcy only happens when assets value is less than the debt that has to be repaid"
    I would disagree in that bankruptcy often happens due to a liquidity crisis. Asset values many times are illiquid. An accounting restatement is just what it implies. Way too premature to ever mention the word bankruptcy in this case.
    Nov 5, 2014. 02:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty: What Investors Must Consider Now [View article]

    While well intentioned the article is somewhat out of touch with reality. I am not going to belabor the issue as to whether or not ARCP survives without major changes. However I am convinced that they have some really valuable assets that will result in great investor interest once the actual accounting issues are fully delineated.
    Since none of the so called writers & commenters on SA can influence anything at ARCP I will only disclose what I did: I am long ARCP (along with O & HTA) and had sold covered calls against most of my position several weeks ago. This was due in large part to my concern over how the Cole deal was structured. I chose to stay long and grab a little extra on the covered calls. Now I doubt that those calls (@$14) will be exercised. Much of my concern was articulated by Brad Thomas in yet another of his excellent articles. On the first hectic day of trading last week I bought Jan & Apr 2015 $10 calls when the market was selling off. During the conference call the stock rallied and I sold the Jan calls for slightly more than 100% profit. Yesterday I bought back the same number of Apr 2015 $10 calls and they are in the black as of this writing. I expect trading will be volatile and I will exit that position when (if) we get some good news. In the meantime I am holding my common and collecting the dividend until the news changes my mind.

    Note that this was a lot of work and although I frequently trade options I did not intend to trade ARCP. Rather it was a buy and hold play. It may be that again if they can right the ship and boot Nick out of the Boardroom as I suspect he has lost credibility with almost all investors. My advice to the longs is hang in there and see what happens over the next couple of weeks once the 3rd quarter numbers are out.
    Nov 4, 2014. 08:40 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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