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jjmc2001

jjmc2001
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  • Is Marathon Oil A Good Investment In The Long Run? [View article]
    Thanks for the article and all of the comments. A commenter mentioned the Libyan assets. MRO has excluded them from their guidance for years now although the assets do have value when (if) Libya ever ceases their internal strife.
    I have been long MRO since the spin off of their downstream assets and if you look at their reserves and acreage they will survive a sustained period of lower oil prices due to a strong balance sheet and good production. They may curtail their exploration budget in the Bakken but the reserves are still sitting there. An old adage in the oil patch is that you can acquire reserves more cheaply on Wall Street than you can in the field. MRO could be one of the more attractive acquisition candidates.
    Jan 21, 2015. 10:22 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Black Friday Massacre [View article]
    Thanks for the article. I would point out one thing:
    "And the same can be said of other integrated majors such as Chevron and ConocoPhillips ." COP is no longer an integrated major but is an E&P name.
    Nov 30, 2014. 10:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dry Shipping Stocks: Is It Time To Throw In The Towel? [View article]
    @ Author.
    Your comment about GE is spot on. Unfortunately the retail investor does not get to invest with GE. We get to invest in the public companies that he can manipulate to feather his own nest. He is a master at this.
    Nov 30, 2014. 05:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty won't report Q3 until January [View news story]
    @Brian,
    A very good comment. The market seemed to want some good news to bring this stock back up. Now we will have to wait longer. David Kay is in a tough spot on these calls as he has the ambulance chasing litigators hanging on every word. I suspect we will hear very little from ARCP until the forensic CPAs are through. I continue to be long but nervous.
    Nov 14, 2014. 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital - Enough Already, Thoughts From A Shareholder [View article]
    Why don't we just have Congress appoint Barney Frank to investigate. He sure cleaned up the banking business.
    Nov 5, 2014. 05:53 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital - Enough Already, Thoughts From A Shareholder [View article]
    @stuyoung
    I tend to agree with you that Schorsch knew something was amiss prior to a few weeks ago. Why would the CFO take that responsibility on himself and risk his career and all his stock/options without telling someone?
    I am long ARCP but have been trading around my position trying to take advantage of the weirdness. Like a long tailed cat on a porch full of rocking chairs I am not sleeping well with ARCP.
    Nov 5, 2014. 05:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty's Properties Are Worth 70% Over The Current Stock Price [View article]
    @cfboller.
    "Bankruptcy only happens when assets value is less than the debt that has to be repaid"
    I would disagree in that bankruptcy often happens due to a liquidity crisis. Asset values many times are illiquid. An accounting restatement is just what it implies. Way too premature to ever mention the word bankruptcy in this case.
    Nov 5, 2014. 02:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty: What Investors Must Consider Now [View article]

    While well intentioned the article is somewhat out of touch with reality. I am not going to belabor the issue as to whether or not ARCP survives without major changes. However I am convinced that they have some really valuable assets that will result in great investor interest once the actual accounting issues are fully delineated.
    Since none of the so called writers & commenters on SA can influence anything at ARCP I will only disclose what I did: I am long ARCP (along with O & HTA) and had sold covered calls against most of my position several weeks ago. This was due in large part to my concern over how the Cole deal was structured. I chose to stay long and grab a little extra on the covered calls. Now I doubt that those calls (@$14) will be exercised. Much of my concern was articulated by Brad Thomas in yet another of his excellent articles. On the first hectic day of trading last week I bought Jan & Apr 2015 $10 calls when the market was selling off. During the conference call the stock rallied and I sold the Jan calls for slightly more than 100% profit. Yesterday I bought back the same number of Apr 2015 $10 calls and they are in the black as of this writing. I expect trading will be volatile and I will exit that position when (if) we get some good news. In the meantime I am holding my common and collecting the dividend until the news changes my mind.

    Note that this was a lot of work and although I frequently trade options I did not intend to trade ARCP. Rather it was a buy and hold play. It may be that again if they can right the ship and boot Nick out of the Boardroom as I suspect he has lost credibility with almost all investors. My advice to the longs is hang in there and see what happens over the next couple of weeks once the 3rd quarter numbers are out.
    Nov 4, 2014. 08:40 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Bought American Realty Capital Properties [View article]
    I think an acquisition of ARCP is extremely unlikely simply due to scale. They have rapidly edged past O in size in their net lease category and there really isn't anyone out there that would be able to do the deal. More likely is that they continue to manage their excellent asset base and perhaps some opportunistic sales. They also need to revisit the Cole transaction as it is way too complex. In the meantime I cannot believe that Mr. Schorsch survives this mess.
    Nov 1, 2014. 08:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty down 7% in early action [View news story]
    I am long ARCP and agree that the problem is not large enough to dictate a sub $10 stock. However Nick Scorsch has to go to get credibility back. The insider dealings are just too opaque. The recent Cole deal has way too many moving parts. Further the secondary offering earlier this year left a lot of investors upset on the way it was handled. After I read the press release yesterday I went long on Jan & Apr 10 calls. More than doubled my money on the Jan as I sold during the conference call. Almost offset my losses on the Common. Still going to hold onto the April 10s for a few days as the drop this morning was probably related to the SEC investigation announcement. As I see it some of the big guys will stay out until the dust settles and the stock will find a new trading range below $12. In the meantime I will hold onto the common and collect my dividend.
    Oct 30, 2014. 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty bounces as error explained on conference call [View news story]
    It will be replayed on the ARCP site.
    Oct 29, 2014. 04:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Open Fire On These Dividend Stocks [View article]
    @dividend house.
    Having owned OLN for many years I can sympathize with your comment. I have bought and sold OLN several times in the last few years as it tends to run up with the other industrials and then come back down on bad news. Right now my OLN holding is slightly higher than normal and I am regretting not selling some when it was in the high 20s. This is a chemical/industrial play as the Winchester component makes up a minority of revenue and earnings. I would advise you to go to their website and read the last couple of quarterly conference calls to gain insight into what the outlook is. They are cutting costs but their revenue is very flat on the chemical side for the near future. OLN also has a tendency to sell off after earnings so I usually sell covered calls when the stock has a good day prior to earnings in order to enhance my yield.
    They are buying back stock but in past earnings calls they always avoid the dividend increase question. The good news is they have paid dividends for 352 quarters albeit with no recent increases.
    Oct 27, 2014. 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Look Out Above: Dry Shipping Stocks Are Finally On The Move [View article]
    Every dry bulk shipper I follow is down today. I am long DSX as I think it is the best of breed and it is down about 6% at mid-day. This sector continues to suffer from over capacity for a long time unless we have a bankruptcy or two and some vessel scrapping.
    Oct 27, 2014. 02:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Nokia Earnings - Impressive Q3 Beat, Telecom Equipment Is Not A Dead Business [View article]
    Is Karvinen a bear? Then we could have lions, tigers and bears. Oh my.
    Long NOK
    Oct 23, 2014. 05:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Dividend Growth Investing Epiphany [View article]
    Thanks for that excellent first article. I have followed the same path and came to the conclusion that as the rental properties grew in value my portfolio was just too heavily concentrated in real estate. Plus it was taking a lot of my time to manage-way too much for what started as a part-time job. As I got into my fifties I realized the importance of diversification. That is much easier to accomplish in the stock market than in real estate. Therefore I sold all my residential rentals (about 45 tenants) with a mix of duplexes, 4-plexes, and single families. Did some 1031 deals and paid some college tuition (for a daughter-one more round of that to go) along with some large tax bills and moved more aggressively into DGI.
    As in many investments timing is everything-I sold most of my residential rentals in 2004-2007 when there was a feeding frenzy for these types of properties in my locale. That was pretty lucky timing. With the 1031 proceeds I went into office space and have really enjoyed it. You deal with business people and can structure more long term deals with less daily aggravation. However when you have a problem it can be a large one.
    Best of luck in your strategy and keep up the writing.
    Oct 23, 2014. 01:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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