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jjmc2001

jjmc2001
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  • A Textbook Model Of Dividend Predictability [View article]
    @aardvark
    I am also long O for many of the reasons that Brad has espoused in his fine work over the last year. Don't forget that during the recent market selloff that interest rates declined to lower levels and that contributed to the strong showing of O as compared to the overall non-REIT market. Cheers.
    Oct 19 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. farmers seen cutting fertilizer use as crop prices slide [View news story]
    As a long time farm owner/investor I can assure you the last thing we will cut is fertilizer. We may defer equipment purchases or other capital improvements but we will spend as much money as necessary to maximize yield per acre. The headline premise is simply wrong for US Midwestern farmers.
    Oct 17 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wanna Bet The Farm? [View article]
    Author,
    I really liked your article as it was well thought out. I don't want to debate semantics but there is a high barrier to entry in the potash industry. It takes years of exploration, geology, permitting and land acquisition to secure a viable mine. It then takes billions to develop this exploitable resource. I realize that mining a commodity does not require years of research but it simply is a vast undertaking and not done quickly. Having said that there is currently plenty of capacity to supply forecasted needs so I do not anticipate a quick return to higher Potash pricing levels soon. I hope your short POT position was done with options so you do not have to cover the upcoming dividend. Keep up the good work and I am looking forward to your next article.

    Full disclosure I am long POT and long Illinois farmland. Both with low basis.
    Oct 6 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The SCOOP On Marathon's Massive Oklahoma Resource Upgrade [View article]
    SFTLR
    I need to revisit the growth prospects. MPLX has a pretty small footprint compared to some of the bigger names in this space. They started out at well under 3% yield and while they have raised it significantly it is still well below other pipelines. I think the market had the stock priced too low due to the paltry payout and then as they raised it the stock price went up. As I said I need to take a hard look at the numbers and growth prospects as there are higher yielding safer names in this space.
    Sep 24 03:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The SCOOP On Marathon's Massive Oklahoma Resource Upgrade [View article]
    Thanks for the excellent article. I have been long MRO since prior to the MPC spinoff. It has been very good to me. From purely an investor standpoint I sold my COP to add more MRO a while back. I gave up yield for growth and with the share buybacks we have seen the MRO price hold strong in the face of declining crude prices as you so aptly pointed out. By the way MPLX has been a great holding for those that bought a while back. Lower yield than the KMI family but good price appreciation and looks like solid dividend growth in the future.
    Sep 24 11:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Deere's Fundamentals And Expected End-Market Improvements Make It A Good Investment [View article]
    @bluepac
    Thanks for the excellent comment. RE tractor demand: What is your take on the continuing very strong US market for large used tractors. Everything I read confirms record used tractor prices even while new tractor sales are rising. One would expect some weakness in both sectors as farmers have been buying these unites so aggressively. Or perhaps the tax driven buying reached a peak in 2013 and we will see a large falloff in new purchases.
    Sep 3 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Reason Microsoft Is Losing Money On Its Surface Line Of Tablets [View article]
    Those are good points about security. However we (I work for the same co) have some pretty sophisticated protection to avoid this. I use my portable devices for other unrelated business activity.

    I am pretty happy with the 8" Dell Venue for less than $200. It runs all Microsoft Office and is way more functional than either an Ipad or a Kindle Fire HD. For just a few dollars more than an Android or Kindle tablet I have a lot more capability.
    Aug 14 08:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Stocks For Quality, Growth, Dividend Consistency & Reasonable Prospect Of Gain [View article]
    Large grain farmers normally have crop insurance. The Midwest in 2014 is going to have a bumper crop of Soybeans and Corn. No drought here. the problem with DE right now is the perception of low commodity prices driving down equipment purchases. I am a Buyer of DE in the low eighties.
    Aug 14 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Reason Microsoft Is Losing Money On Its Surface Line Of Tablets [View article]
    I will not comment on the financial side of this article. However I am a Windows user and have seriously considered the Surface. Instead I bought an Asus small laptop(about $300) with touch screen and a Dell Venue 8 ($194 on Amazon). Both give me everything I need and work seamlessly with my other two Windows laptops and Windows phone (NOK 920). The Surface just costs too much and if I had it to do over again I would just buy the Dell Venue with a Bluetooth keyboard. Anecdotally I was in the office of a CEO yesterday and she was using a Surface as her desktop with a large monitor and wireless mouse and keyboard. When she leaves the office she just unplugs it and goes mobile with full functionality.
    Aug 14 01:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comments On Plum Creek's Q2 2014 Results [View article]
    Thanks for the summary. I agree about the lack of housing recovery. I added to my PCL on the dip but only for the dividend. I see it as a long-term hold and a possible hedge against future inflation which seems further in the future than I predicted a year ago.
    Jul 31 08:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Invest In Farm Land? [View article]
    @martinfrosa
    Excellent comments. Particularly appropriate for the US Midwest near large cities. As in most real estate transactions it is all about, location, timing, and cash flow.
    Jul 30 11:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Plum Creek Timber Is A Hold [View article]
    Thank you for the article and your thoughtful replies to constructive criticism. I am long PCL and currently also consider it a "hold". I do not agree with your assertion that the housing market is rebounding. New construction is what will drive lumber prices and while housing has improved from it is well short of a rebound. That said, I think PCL has good management and a diversified asset base. They have entered into mining ventures and are doing a good job of land stewardship. I hold it now as an inflation hedge and a dividend payer.
    Jul 18 11:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nordic American Tanker +4% after reporting improved earnings, cash flow [View news story]
    Sounds like another secondary offering coming.
    May 12 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nordic American Tankers' 1Q2014 Report (NYSE:NAT) -- Cash dividend of $0.23 declared earlier. Strongly improved operating cashflow. Net income positive for the first time in four years. [View article]
    It has been awhile since I got my accounting degree but Herb always includes his undrawn line of credit availability in his cash position declaration. We didn't learn accounting that way. NAT keeps diluting shares by issuing equity to pay dividends and pay down the revolver. If the industry turns around this strategy may work. If not the stock price will keep sliding. I am still long NAT but I am starting to feel like I am on a train heading for a chasm and with luck we survive the leap. Should have jumped off long ago.
    May 12 11:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Your Risk Tolerance With American Realty Capital Properties? [View article]
    Thanks for the update Brad. The last few weeks have been interesting for O and ARCP stock prices (I am long both). Keep padding your list of publications as I find them insightful. There are some subtle market thoughts in this one that I found useful. I almost added some more ARCP on the dip after the rumor but also decided to wait until after earnings. A few more quarters of positive performance should be telling in the stock price of ARCP.
    May 1 11:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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