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jjmc2001

jjmc2001
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  • The ARCP Train Is Back On Schedule [View article]
    @tbalpha
    You are 100% correct. It is always a good idea to "fact check" the numbers on some of these sites like Yahoo. I sure hope someone new to investing will not be looking at ARCP. However I must admit I took some imprudent risks in my earlier investments. I am still long ARCP but this is like "Waiting for Godot".
    Apr 23, 2015. 12:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Marathon Oil on the move after Morgan Stanley upgrade [View news story]
    MRO is quietly adding to its proven reserve base by drilling in the Eagle Ford and selectively in the Bakken. Since they spun off the downstream assets they have really done a good job of redeploying their capital expenditures into domestic plays. One of these days a major oil player is going to wake up and buy MRO.
    Apr 20, 2015. 11:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: Citigroup Is Bullish [View article]
    I am long COP (and MRO) in the E & P sector. I was planning on buying more COP on dips. I may have to rethink my position if Citi is now pushing it. Weren't they forecasting oil below $40 recently?
    Apr 15, 2015. 01:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Olin - Compelling Math Behind A Huge Deal [View article]
    @kurtdabear
    In one of the 2014 quarterly earnings calls Mr. Rupp made comments about the problems with an outright sale being problematic for tax reasons. Remember OLN has owned Winchester for over a century so the basis is low. I am sure there might be creative ways to structure a deal but in the past management has quickly changed the subject when analysts pressed them on this issue. I think the author is correct in his earlier comment about leverage and dividend policy. I have owned OLN for many years and have only added to my position when the dividend yield was near 4% ($20 per share). As the dust settles on this deal it will be interesting to see the OPLN trading range. Perhaps in the 28-34 range?
    Mar 30, 2015. 12:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Olin - Compelling Math Behind A Huge Deal [View article]
    Thanks for the article. I am a long time investor in OLN. OLN management has proven to be a good low cost operator in low margin businesses. They have not been shareholder friendly with respect to the dividend. Perhaps the 50.5 % Dow shareholders will force the .20 per quarter higher.
    Mar 30, 2015. 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Olin downgraded to Sell at UBS on dim view of chlor-alkali business [View news story]
    So much for unfounded rumors. Apparently a few folks on Wall St. knew more than us average investors as the stock has been on a tear lately.
    Mar 27, 2015. 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Olin downgraded to Sell at UBS on dim view of chlor-alkali business [View news story]
    Very shallow analysis by UBS. I am long OLN (for many years) and it ran up recently on unfounded rumors. I will continue to be long but would not chase it above $28.00. Selling it now would be equally unwise.
    Mar 24, 2015. 12:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More Signs Diana Shipping Is Worth Considering (If You Have The Patience) [View article]
    I have owned DSX off and on for several years. Sold it all last week. As we all know the BDI is bouncing around very low levels with no clear upside on the horizon. DSX is doing a good job of hanging in there and resetting contracts albeit at very low levels. I just decided to get out and wait to get back in when things look better for the industry. The supply/demand situation for ships is still not looking good for the rest of 2015.
    Mar 9, 2015. 03:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Potash Corp. As Long-Term Fundamentals Are In Place [View article]
    The barrier to entry is several hundred millions of cost to develop a mine. Of course the mine also needs ready access to transportation infrastructure. Your last statement is correct but think about the billions of btus of oil, coal, oil sands that are just laying around. With all that stuff just laying there why does it cost so much? Cost of capital is a barrier to entry that exists and is real in the potash business. If potash went way up in price you would see a lot more reserves being exploited. That costs money. Brings to mind this quote: Mark Twain has described a mine as "a hole in the ground owned by a liar." There have been a few of those guys raising money on the Canadian stock exchanges over the years.
    Feb 19, 2015. 02:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Attractiveness Of Farmland And Other Alternative Asset Classes [View article]
    Thanks for the article. I think it is a bit of a stretch to look at the aforementioned asset groups and their historic appreciation. I prefer to look at farmland as a conventional real estate investment. i.e. you pay a price and get a return every year based on the lease. If the asset (farmland) goes up in value that is great but should be seen as a bonus. The trend in my area (Midwest) is towards "flex rent" wherein the owner has a base cash rent with some sharing of gross revenue or profits. Using that type of method both parties can weather (pun intended) the uncertainties of crop yields and commodity cycles. I have owned farmland since the seventies and have seen several consecutive years of losses (as a farmer). Now that I am on a flex rent as landlord I have a guaranteed return and may have some upside from the increased asset value. Farmland is a long term holding and is not liquid. I have yet to see a publicly traded entity that is worthy of investment but there are a number equity firms that manage a lot of farmland.
    Feb 12, 2015. 07:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Marathon Oil A Good Investment In The Long Run? [View article]
    @kermitH
    I believe you are referring to MPC assets not MRO. The companies split apart in June of 2011 and MRO took the downstream and MRO kept the E&P. MPLX has also been set up as an MLP to own pipelines.
    Feb 7, 2015. 04:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shorting Realty Income Is A Bad Idea [View article]
    @senBiden
    Although I am hesitant to agree with you based on your identity I have employed the exact strategy you espouse. O has done everything I could ask. I bought it for the safe increasing dividend and it has done that and also moved from $39 to 55. I have elected to sell covered calls at 55 to hype my yield. If the Buyer chooses to take my shares I will await the next buying opportunity and be happy. The last time I checked my total return was excellent on this fine company.
    Jan 30, 2015. 09:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Marathon Oil A Good Investment In The Long Run? [View article]
    @strob
    To elaborate on my comment: Based on their balance sheet and ability to divert cap ex MRO should survive without major problems. By survive I mean the risk of insolvency is low. In terms of being a possible acquisition candidate I view that as a potential win for a shareholder and not a risk. When you invest in a E & P you are betting on the reserves in the ground being exploited for a profit. I would prefer to see MRO do the exploiting but if XOM or CVX pays us above market share price to acquire those assets I will take my proceeds and move on.
    Jan 30, 2015. 08:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Marathon Oil A Good Investment In The Long Run? [View article]
    Thanks for the article and all of the comments. A commenter mentioned the Libyan assets. MRO has excluded them from their guidance for years now although the assets do have value when (if) Libya ever ceases their internal strife.
    I have been long MRO since the spin off of their downstream assets and if you look at their reserves and acreage they will survive a sustained period of lower oil prices due to a strong balance sheet and good production. They may curtail their exploration budget in the Bakken but the reserves are still sitting there. An old adage in the oil patch is that you can acquire reserves more cheaply on Wall Street than you can in the field. MRO could be one of the more attractive acquisition candidates.
    Jan 21, 2015. 10:22 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Black Friday Massacre [View article]
    Thanks for the article. I would point out one thing:
    "And the same can be said of other integrated majors such as Chevron and ConocoPhillips ." COP is no longer an integrated major but is an E&P name.
    Nov 30, 2014. 10:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,307 Comments
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