Best Bang For Your Buck: How Smith & Wesson Gets To $16 [View article]
When you can sell everything you can produce at a good margin for the foreseeable future I find that to be a good stock to invest in. The reality is the demand for guns and ammo is real and not just in a few rural areas. The gun ownership population has expanded greatly in the last several years and these people will keep buying both guns and ammo. At the present I do not own RGR of SWHC but have owned both several times. I am long OLN but it is more of an industrial chemicals play than an ammo producer. They report earnings on 4/25 after hours. I predict blowout sales for the Winchester segment (again). The chemicals side will be inline. I further predict the stock will sell off on Friday as it always does after earnings. But on the dip and collect the fat dividend. OLN is boring but just keeps chugging along.
Nokia As Comeback King: Using A Grassroots Approach To Win [View article]
@doggie, Don't forget that the US carriers operate on different systems so even if you had an unlocked 920 it would not work on Verizon. Therefore NOK is desigining a phone rumored to be the 928 which will work on Verizons network. Sprint is yet another network. NOK made a deal with At&T to be exclusive on the 920. They also had a phone for T-Mobile. I am not defending their marketing but they will be making different phones for different markets (and carriers) for specific reasons. Bringing the Asha line to the US would be a disaster as the US consumer does not want feature phones now. Rather they need to fill out the US product line with entry level smartphones to grab share from the lower priced Androids. For the record I will not be terribly upset if NOK spends its marketing dollars in Asia rather than the US.
Freeport-McMoRan Is Still A Strong Buy [View article]
@Mike, One of my dumbest moves was selling FCX around $30 before the split. At the depths of the financial meltdown I bought a sizable position of FCX around $18. When it met my target I sold and then watched it continue to rise and then split. I guess you will never go broke selling for a profit but that one still sticks in my mind. I bought some last week at $27.50 and will continue to nibble at the current levels. I have spent many years following the mining industry and really liked FCX but now with the oil assets the future is less clear but perhaps much better.
ConocoPhillips: Cashing In On The Eagle Ford Shale [View article]
Michael, Thanks for the article. I have been long MRO for a long while for some of the saem reasons you cited for COP and been watching COP for an entry point when we got a break in WTI. Interesting that both MRO and COP both have good Eagle Ford acreage and WI shares in the Shenandoah well. Both simpler stocks since the refining sides have bee spun off. I think MRO paid dearly for their Eagle Ford acreage but it looks like a winner.
You have to ask your buddy where he got those crawfish. they grow pretty big near that Waterford Nuclear Plant. Easy to find too cause they glow in the dark.
Bakken Update: Bakken Well Costs Are Decreasing Faster Than Companies Indicate [View article]
Michael, As always very nice work here. I share your view on oil pricing. I am still long MRO and waiting to pull the trigger on TPLM. Any opinion on a good entry price for TPLM heading into earnings?
Paulo, I was responding to the question posed. Most steam coal contracts tend to be long term in nature with minimum/maximum tonnages. Certainly short-term market forces will affect those negotiations. I think too many readers look at steam coal pricing as too similar to other industrial minerals.
I enjoy your work. Hope you revisit the shipping industry soon.
@6608281 Steam coal production is normally developed to serve specific clients under long term contracts. If you research BTU or ACI you will see that spot coal prices have limited impact on their near term outlook.
The Nokia Problem Remains Broadly The Same But There's Some Hope [View article]
Android conversion won't happen. Sailfish might. NOK went all in on WP and that isn't changing until the next wave of software change. Let's not waste energy debating that issue anymore.
@nemonemo Not sure of your point but let me elaborate on mine. The Patriot properties were sub standard and were destined to be a drag on BTU and had been shopped through the industry. The spinoff was one solution. I was responding to the commenter that asked if ACI had any similarities to Patriot. Very little similarities. I didn't forget the pension liabilities. Apparently that issue remains to be litigated and it has been a while since I reviewed that aspect of Patriot. As a further comment ACI has an excellent management team. However there are many risks in the coal business right now that they have limited control over.
Look at the history of Patriot Coal. Then look at where their reserves are and the markets they serve. They were spun off for very good reasons. The deal did not work out for shareholders.
Nokia's First Quarter, From Bad To Worst [View article]
@phemale, I apologize if my attempt at humor offended you. Regardless of our ideologies we need to reflect on politics and business with a sense of humor. Unfortunately the world (not just the US) too often relies on sound bites and charisma when selecting leadership. The last line of my earlier comment is way more important than the first.
Nokia Corporation's CEO Discusses Q1 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
Did I miss something or why have all the analysts neglected to inquire about the India tax dispute? Last I heard it was still not resolved. I know Nokia's position is that they did nothing wrong but I would have expected one of these analysts to ask for a status update.
Nokia's First Quarter, From Bad To Worst [View article]
Hope and change did not work for the US and apparently isn't working for Nokia. I have been long (too long) NOK for some time believing in a turnaround. I no longer believe that it will happen soon. I am a happy 920 user and have two Windows 8 computers that have been a refreshing upgrade from Windows XP & 7 but MSFT has a lot of work to do on the software side to get WP8 accepted. I am cutting some of my losses and moving on but will still retain a position in NOK. I fear that the whole smartphone sector will suffer from declining margins as the rats start to devour each other to stay relevant.
@noobie I think you are referring to the "Osborne effect" of preannouncing a new product that kills existing sales. This certainly could be argued about the announcement of the NOK/MSFT alliance and the subsequent effect on Symbian sales. Personally I think Symbian was dead already and NOK did not have a new generation of software ready. Asha is a different situation. I think Asha is meant as a "lite" version of a smartphone whereby value conscious users can achieve some of the smartphone results without costly data plans. The Nokia hope is that it will grab share form the low end Androids while appealing to the consumers moving up from feature phones.
Mr. Elop faced a daunting task when he took over Nokia and he had to cut thousands of employees to stop the bleeding while also coming up with a new smart phone strategy. Tomorrow we get to see another chapter in the turnaround story.
@popo You are a little late to the party on the Symbian issue. We debated the selection of Windows on SA ad nauseum a year ago. Nokia clearly articulated their reasons for choosing Windows many times. Symbian is dead. IOS has taken the high ground and if Windows can capture 3rd place (after Android) NOK does fine.
Best Bang For Your Buck: How Smith & Wesson Gets To $16 [View article]
Nokia As Comeback King: Using A Grassroots Approach To Win [View article]
Don't forget that the US carriers operate on different systems so even if you had an unlocked 920 it would not work on Verizon. Therefore NOK is desigining a phone rumored to be the 928 which will work on Verizons network. Sprint is yet another network. NOK made a deal with At&T to be exclusive on the 920. They also had a phone for T-Mobile. I am not defending their marketing but they will be making different phones for different markets (and carriers) for specific reasons. Bringing the Asha line to the US would be a disaster as the US consumer does not want feature phones now. Rather they need to fill out the US product line with entry level smartphones to grab share from the lower priced Androids. For the record I will not be terribly upset if NOK spends its marketing dollars in Asia rather than the US.
Freeport-McMoRan Is Still A Strong Buy [View article]
One of my dumbest moves was selling FCX around $30 before the split. At the depths of the financial meltdown I bought a sizable position of FCX around $18. When it met my target I sold and then watched it continue to rise and then split. I guess you will never go broke selling for a profit but that one still sticks in my mind. I bought some last week at $27.50 and will continue to nibble at the current levels. I have spent many years following the mining industry and really liked FCX but now with the oil assets the future is less clear but perhaps much better.
ConocoPhillips: Cashing In On The Eagle Ford Shale [View article]
Thanks for the article. I have been long MRO for a long while for some of the saem reasons you cited for COP and been watching COP for an entry point when we got a break in WTI. Interesting that both MRO and COP both have good Eagle Ford acreage and WI shares in the Shenandoah well. Both simpler stocks since the refining sides have bee spun off. I think MRO paid dearly for their Eagle Ford acreage but it looks like a winner.
You have to ask your buddy where he got those crawfish. they grow pretty big near that Waterford Nuclear Plant. Easy to find too cause they glow in the dark.
Bakken Update: Bakken Well Costs Are Decreasing Faster Than Companies Indicate [View article]
As always very nice work here. I share your view on oil pricing. I am still long MRO and waiting to pull the trigger on TPLM. Any opinion on a good entry price for TPLM heading into earnings?
Going Long On Arch Coal [View article]
I was responding to the question posed. Most steam coal contracts tend to be long term in nature with minimum/maximum tonnages. Certainly short-term market forces will affect those negotiations. I think too many readers look at steam coal pricing as too similar to other industrial minerals.
I enjoy your work. Hope you revisit the shipping industry soon.
Going Long On Arch Coal [View article]
Steam coal production is normally developed to serve specific clients under long term contracts. If you research BTU or ACI you will see that spot coal prices have limited impact on their near term outlook.
The Nokia Problem Remains Broadly The Same But There's Some Hope [View article]
Going Long On Arch Coal [View article]
Not sure of your point but let me elaborate on mine. The Patriot properties were sub standard and were destined to be a drag on BTU and had been shopped through the industry. The spinoff was one solution. I was responding to the commenter that asked if ACI had any similarities to Patriot. Very little similarities. I didn't forget the pension liabilities. Apparently that issue remains to be litigated and it has been a while since I reviewed that aspect of Patriot.
As a further comment ACI has an excellent management team. However there are many risks in the coal business right now that they have limited control over.
Going Long On Arch Coal [View article]
Nokia's First Quarter, From Bad To Worst [View article]
I apologize if my attempt at humor offended you. Regardless of our ideologies we need to reflect on politics and business with a sense of humor. Unfortunately the world (not just the US) too often relies on sound bites and charisma when selecting leadership. The last line of my earlier comment is way more important than the first.
Nokia Corporation's CEO Discusses Q1 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
Nokia's First Quarter, From Bad To Worst [View article]
Nokia: Take A Long-Term View [View article]
I think you are referring to the "Osborne effect" of preannouncing a new product that kills existing sales. This certainly could be argued about the announcement of the NOK/MSFT alliance and the subsequent effect on Symbian sales. Personally I think Symbian was dead already and NOK did not have a new generation of software ready. Asha is a different situation. I think Asha is meant as a "lite" version of a smartphone whereby value conscious users can achieve some of the smartphone results without costly data plans. The Nokia hope is that it will grab share form the low end Androids while appealing to the consumers moving up from feature phones.
Mr. Elop faced a daunting task when he took over Nokia and he had to cut thousands of employees to stop the bleeding while also coming up with a new smart phone strategy. Tomorrow we get to see another chapter in the turnaround story.
Nokia: Take A Long-Term View [View article]
You are a little late to the party on the Symbian issue. We debated the selection of Windows on SA ad nauseum a year ago. Nokia clearly articulated their reasons for choosing Windows many times. Symbian is dead. IOS has taken the high ground and if Windows can capture 3rd place (after Android) NOK does fine.