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jjmc2001's  Instablog

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Former banker to north american mining & energy industries and coal industry CFO. My initial training was as a financial analyst. My investment philosophy is to seek out fundamentally sound companies in industries that exhibit positive trends. Currently active in mortgage and real estate... More
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  • Nokia strongly up over the last 30 days
    As we see the changes at Nokia take on from the stock has firmed and is up approximately 12% from the low in April.  In an earlier post we speculated that the stock would get a boost prior to the ex-dividend date of May 4.  In NOK's case this date takes on a bit more significance as it is an annual dividend.  As we see them move forward with their MSFT venture in smartphones the story will get more interesting.  Clearly RIMM,AAPL and the GOOG based Android phones are going to continue to erode the once dominant Nokia market share but as the MSFT based Nokia phones emerge in late 2011 or ealry 2012 it may be a more interesting battle.  We look for an entry point in NOK after May 4 to play this name.  Currently Long NOK,INTC 
    Apr 28 12:37 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Midwest Community Banks may be a better play than the big guys
    I have long touted Community Banks as an ancillary play on the strength of the US Midwest agriculture markets.  As we enter Spring planting season in the upper Midwest Corn production commodity prices appear to be at solid levels and while farmers are rarely optimistic this appears to be the potential for a good year despite record high input prices.  While all of the ag chemical, equipment suppliers, and fertilzer cos. have had a nice run the past several months the local community banks have moved little.  My personal opinion is that some of these banks are better common stock plays than the money center names.  For example, Today after market close:
    First Busey Corp. (BUSE) Tops Q1 EPS by 3c
    4:49 pm ET 04/26/2011- StreetInsider

    First Busey Corp. (NASDAQ: BUSE) reported Q1 EPS of $0.09, $0.03 better than the analyst estimate of $0.06.

    As the local economies benefit from strong agricultural earnings some of these local banks should see better times.  Another name I like in this sector is Commerce Bankshares (NASDAQ:CBSH).  I am long BUSE.

    Apr 26 6:00 PM | Link | 1 Comment
  • Nokia-Time for a Leap from the burning platform with Management?
    The recent email written by Chaiman Elop of Nokia (NYSE:NOK)referring to the "burning platform"  was a graphic call to arms for employees to realize how the company had let it's once dominant cell phone market share slip away to the smartphone crowd.  Despite a strong balance sheet and still maintaining an outstanding balance sheet the investment community mercilessly sold off the stock in light of the announcement of a partnership with MSFT to use the Windows phone software as they phase out of the NOK symbian platform.  My opinion is that the court of public opinion is judging the stock too harshly.  While they continue to lose smartphone market share and see margins shrink NOK has abundant cash, world renowned manufacturing expertise, and several other good business segments.  These strengths, coupled with MSFT research money, should help them regain a strong foothold in the smartphone market. Further  this partnerhsip should help them regain alliances with North American cell phone service providers like T and VZ. 

    More food for thought on investing in Nokia in the near term. They have an earnings announcement on April 21 followed by Dividend in May. As they have been very quiet in the press regarding new phone development one would suspect some mention of upcoming products might be included in the April Earnings release. Since the dividend is annual and at a fairly high yield I look for a bump in price prior to the dividend but the earnings announcement/product info could be market movers. Although the press has focused on the smartphone strategy NOK is much more than that. I am long NOK common and very long LEAPS 2012 & 2013. My conclusion is that we saw a great buying opportunity recently.
    Tags: NOK, MSFT, T, VZ, S
    Apr 05 12:46 PM | Link | Comment!
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