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  • Why I'm Short Amazon - No Returns To Owners [View article]
    It's so fun to come to Seeking Alpha and read about what a terrible investment Amazon stock is. How the stock "should" be trading at a much lower price.

    Hello...the stock trades as a price people are willing to pay for it. And plenty of people will apparently pay over $300 a share for it.
    I particularly love statements like "Amazon is great for customers and employees, but it's not great - indeed it's terrible - for owners."

    Wow...I'm an owner (yeah, only 250 shares...but I'm an owner) and it has been GREAT for me. I bought at $50/share. Explain to me in clear terms how this is horrible for me, and everyone else who has bought and profited. It's only bad for people who don't buy the stock....or who short it.

    Will the price go down? Of course it does every year. But as long as it keeps growing at anything even CLOSE to the current rate, and the addressable market is still so huge, it will go up over the long term.

    You can apply all the technical analysis you want, but it won't change the fact that this is a key player that is defining its markets, kicking competitors to the curb, and grabbing an increasing share of wallet of many, many consumers. Do I want to own that? Hell yes.
    Jul 16 04:52 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Might Have Decided To Put Out Of Business [View article]
    If only there were a factual basis for that statement. It's a strong opinion, but only an opinion.
    Mar 13 12:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Growing Pains: Peter Lynch Would Say It's Time To Sell This Fast Grower [View article]
    Hmmmm...column author channeling famous investment manager. How about just making a compelling case for what YOU think instead of claiming to know the thoughts of Peter Lynch?
    Feb 11 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buying Amazon With A 20-Year Horizon [View article]
    Well....Walmart has 8X current Amazon sales, but is growing at slow single digit rate. And it projects to keep growing at that rate.

    Amazon is growing at a much faster pace, and with international expansion (plus the overall trajectory of ecommerce in current markets) seems reasonable to assume a similar growth rate for quite some time. (not talking profits...but revenue)

    It's about the addressable market, and Amazon's is simply so much larger. Because you also have to factor in multi-billion dollar revenue streams (and growth) from cloud services, as well as from the sales of digital content (where Walmart has already pulled out of the market). Walmart will always be big. In 10 years Amazon will be ginormous.

    Folks need to remember Amazon is not just a book seller, not just a general retail company, but also a company that provides cloud storage and data services to a wide range of clients. AWS is also a very fast growing piece of the business.

    It's a long play, and I probably won't be buying more Amazon stock without a split, but call me a happy long term investor.
    Feb 1 09:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Something Is Definitely Broken With The Market [View article]
    Meanwhile, at the weekly Amazon Bear convention.....

    Guys...nothing is wrong with the market. It's just that investors value Amazon differently than you do. Why is that so hard to understand? A stock price is determined by how much investors are willing to pay for it. And there are plenty of investors that value Amazon much higher than most here. That doesn't mean they are wrong and you are right...or vice versa. It means they will pay more for it. If you don't want to pay that much, don't.

    Now you can write all the articles you want about how everything Amazon does is wrong, but if there are plenty of investors who think Amazon is doing right, then the price will stay up where it is, or go even higher.

    I just don't understand why the Amazon bears of Seeking Alpha get so incredibly worked up over this. You're arguing with the market. The market isn't right or just is a reflection of investor sentiment.
    Jan 14 04:40 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has The Amazon Plunge Finally Begun? [View article]
    Full-blown retail revolt? That's just rich. A competitor has awakened to the fact that the Kindle will siphon off merchandise sales from Walmat to Amazon is not a retail revolt. And if Kindles are only sold at Amazon, they will still be hugely successful.

    Will the stock drop? Absolutely. Will it rise back up? Same answer. This is not a company for people who want to see fat quarterly earnings. It is for investors who want an ownership stake in a company that is transforming retail and doing so with paper-thin margins. Why this generates so much apparent disdain is beyond me. If the stock's not for you, it;s not for you. That doesn't mean it's a bad or screwed up company.
    Sep 21 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bear Hunting Along The Amazon [View article]
    Wow...good job. You brought out the bears in force.

    Nice analysis.
    Sep 10 04:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Rare Glimpse Into What It Takes To Be An Best Seller [View article]
    And this article is living proof that even though the era of vinyl albums is behind us, we can still hear the sound of a scratched record. "Amazon is broken...Amazon is broken...Amazon is broken..."
    Aug 27 08:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • With Amazon, Stop Paying For Mediocrity [View article]
    So if y'all don't like Amazon or how it's run, don't invest in it. The amount of angst and anger over how Jeff Bezos runs Amazon is amazing.....and kind of entertaining.

    Most folks claim to not own any Amazon stock (disclosure: I do), yet seem really, really worked up over the valuation the market has placed on the company. Personally, I bought a bunch of it to hold for the long term (20+ years)....and still have a ways to go. I will sell immediately as soon as Bezos starts worrying about hitting the quarterly estimates of analysts.

    I'm sure that is a horrible strategy to much of the investment commnunity. Yet it works for me.
    Jul 31 06:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • And There It Is, The Final Nail In Kindle Fire's Coffin [View article]
    And I doubt Amazon is worried about Google here. As you frequently remind us, the Kindle Fire is sold either at cost or a slight loss. Amazon is not selling them to make $ on hardware. It is to sell more digital content.

    People don't buy the Fire for general tablet awesomeness. They buy it for the ecosystem of digital content available from Amazon. Google doesn't have that level of digital content ecosystem.
    Jun 27 05:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon And Printing Books On Demand [View article]
    Publishers simply want to protect the old business model. While it may help them in the short run, it is not a sustainable path. Companies that successfully transition through changes of this magnitude only do so when they are willing to canniblize their own products....before someone else does. If they wait for aother entity to force changes, they tend to end up behind the eight ball.
    May 31 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Prime Has Improved My Life, And Will Improve Company Profits [View article]
    So Paulo, since you appear to hate everything Amazon (every post you make references how poor they are doing and pretty much everything is unprofitable) what is your motivation? I don't get it. If you don't like Amazon's business model, or their execution, why do you write about this company so often and freely?

    You say Amazon's margins are destroyed by Prime. Yet everything I read shows Prime has been a major success for Amazon bringing in a HUGE volume of profitable business.

    Did Jeff Bezos hit your dog, or something like that? I just don't get the amazing amount of animosity you have for this company.
    May 10 02:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vertical Integration Is Why Amazon Will Be Worth So Much More [View article] fan boys. Always so predictable. "Apple is gonna DESTROY Amazon." Dude...chill out.

    There is room for more than one successful company on the web. Apple is selling tablets to make $ on the sale of hardware. Amazon is selling tablets to make $ selling the digital content. Apples and oranges...

    Some folks make buying/holding/selling securities so difficult. Buy stock in companies you understand, are comfortable with, and are willing to hold for a while. If you're looking for a quick buck, or buying and selling based on some mythical chart or formula, you are just chasing a crowd.

    Buy and hold what you truly understand and you will be a much happier and successful investor.
    Apr 9 04:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • And The Netflix Pricing Conundrum [View article]
    "the heaviest users, through a process of adverse selection, flocked to it. This gave rise to the statistic that prime members buy three times as much stuff as other buyers. (This can also be stated differently - a group that buys three times as much as average sees gains in joining Prime.)"

    That's an interesting way of looking at Prime. But my non-scientific method of looking at me and 4 freinds who all joined Prime at roughly the same time is that we did and still do buy much more from Amazon now that we are members. Our experience (which I cannot say is replicated across Prime) is that we now buy more stuff, and will buy single items rather than waiting to purchase multiple items at once. With Prime, it;s much easier to make an impulse purchase from Amazon.
    Feb 23 05:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Is The Old Microsoft [View article]
    Well.....the article addresses the retail piece of the business, but totally dismisses AWS from the equation. And to dismiss a large and growing piece of the business means you have an incomplete picture.
    Jan 4 07:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment