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billyjoerob

billyjoerob
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  • Care.com Turning Losses Into Profits, Maybe [View article]
    New 13D from something called Tenzing Capital.

    Homepay is off the charts.

    http://bit.ly/1D89P5p
    Mar 27, 2015. 07:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Seeking Alpha [View article]
    As long as you brought it up, Chris, are you related to the Chris DeMuth who used to run the think-tank AEI?
    Mar 27, 2015. 08:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • T2 Biosystems: Impressive Opportunity With Sepsis Diagnosis [View article]
    What if the hospitals don't want to reduce expenses? You're saying this is cheaper. OK, but hospitals aren't in the business of reducing expenses, they're in the business of billing Medicare and insurers as much as possible. They may buy this machine and then see a major source of revenue disappear. $130,000 sounds like a lot of money.
    Mar 26, 2015. 09:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • T2 Biosystems: Impressive Opportunity With Sepsis Diagnosis [View article]
    So 1/200 patients die a preventable death so the hospital can save $100? See you in court, buddy. Good luck explaining p-values to the jury.
    Mar 26, 2015. 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • T2 Biosystems: Impressive Opportunity With Sepsis Diagnosis [View article]
    What happens if doctors continue to recommend anti-fungal medicines as a precaution just in case and thereby destroy the rationale for using T2?
    Mar 26, 2015. 08:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com Turning Losses Into Profits, Maybe [View article]
    You said that Care can't get a foothold in elder care. Why do you think that is? You're right that the economics of the "babysitter" market alone aren't necessarily that favorable. And what's your experience using Care, or hiring care providers? Thanks
    Mar 25, 2015. 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com Turning Losses Into Profits, Maybe [View article]
    Whoa buddy, step away from the computer. Take a walk. Get a little perspective.

    In fact, the care providers do pay fees to get higher placement and pay fees for other stuff. So depending on what "pay to be on the system" means, they do pay. You can verify that for yourself, of course.

    Right, the vast majority don't use a payroll service. But if the entire transaction occurs on care.com, including the payment, it makes sense that the taxes would too (and contrariwise). A soup-to-nuts transaction including payments and taxes is potentially quite lucrative. That's the whole business model. It might not work, but the model doesn't have to work for the stock market to price in some option value, which is arguably quite large, as your numbers suggest.
    Mar 25, 2015. 08:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com Turning Losses Into Profits, Maybe [View article]
    CRCM has just 14000 customers in the nanny tax business. The margins in that business are quite large. Any small percentage of the illegal nannies going legit would boost that number quite a bit. It's not simply that the nannies would want to get on the SS rolls, it's that the IRS would start to crack down on employers who don't pay the tax. That's a pretty large incentive.

    One of the basic problems with professionalizing the nanny business (which Care is trying to do) is that many of the professionals are illegal. DAPA solves that problem in one stroke. Marcelo confirmed that in the call.

    You note that the providers don't pay to be on the system. I'm not sure that's accurate. If it is true, then that's just another source of 100% margin revenue once Care dominates the industry.
    Mar 24, 2015. 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com Turning Losses Into Profits, Maybe [View article]
    But she hasn't shut it down. Good leaders know when to cut losses and admit mistakes. She hasn't been willing to do that. At this point it's either her or CL.
    Mar 24, 2015. 08:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com Turning Losses Into Profits, Maybe [View article]
    The Care bears have noticed the company *is losing money.* This is no deep insight. Everyone is aware of the losses. That's old news and is already fully priced into the stock. There are multiple prospective catalysts - acquisitions, DAPA/DACA, accelerating enrollments in payments, shutting down CL/reducing earnout, signing up large corporate clients like Bosch and Novartis, firing Marcelo, etc. Don't be a bear at the bottom.
    Mar 24, 2015. 05:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com Turning Losses Into Profits, Maybe [View article]
    Let's imagine that some version of DAPA/DACA passes and more than 5 million illegal aliens start to pay taxes, get a SS number and are finally working on the books. What's the first thing they're going to do? Go on care.com, set up a profile, and make sure the employer pays the SS and Medicare taxes. The implications of that change are massive. The stock could rocket $20 higher once the market realizes the implications for the Care business model. The Care bears wouldn't know what hit 'em.
    Mar 23, 2015. 05:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com's Executives And Insiders Jumping Ship Is Alarming [View article]
    I'd say JPM is a contrary indicator.

    http://bit.ly/1xLzQzL

    When you back out cash and the value of the Breedlove business, then the core matching matching business is selling for about 1x sales. That's not a bad price at all for a business with the leading market position and such a huge market opportunity. I think everyone can agree that care matching will eventually be a larger market than taxi matching.

    The comparison between SC and Care comes down to whether you think this a winner-take-all business. If it isn't, then maybe SC can carve out a profitable niche. If it is winner take all, then SC is doomed. This will always be an industry with huge marketing expenses. Can Sittercity keep up as a niche provider? I don't know, but it's already too far behind to make a run at #1. The funding gap between Care and SC is about $210M vs. $35M; I'd estimate that Care probably outspends SC at least 10-1 to acquire new customers. If SC is nothing but an online staffing firm for BFAM and corporate clients, then it will probably wither and die. There are cheaper ways to recruit nannies.

    Obviously Marcelo is not a great strategic thinker. She needs somebody to help her with that; Citrus Lane was a colossal and avoidable mistake. If Care acquires SC for say 5m shares of Care stock, then I think the stock is a cinch for $15.
    Mar 21, 2015. 01:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com's Executives And Insiders Jumping Ship Is Alarming [View article]
    What evidence is there that Sittercity is profitable? Highly unlikely, unless they've given up on acquiring new customers.
    Mar 20, 2015. 03:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com's Executives And Insiders Jumping Ship Is Alarming [View article]
    The core business is profitable, $2M this quarter. Obviously Citrus Lane has been a disaster, should be shut down. Anybody trying to compete with CRCM at this point would have to spend a lot of money. If CRCM is burning cash, Sittercity has to be in an even worse position. What investors want to see at this point is that CRCM losses diminish and demonstrates path to profitability, I think CRCM did that.
    Mar 20, 2015. 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com's Executives And Insiders Jumping Ship Is Alarming [View article]
    Results not disastrous. CRCM last woman standing. Will go to $15 once the new CFO makes a deal to acquire sittercity, and specifically the contracts with big clients like DoD.
    Mar 19, 2015. 11:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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