billyjoerob

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  • Care.com: Too Little Too Late?  [View article]
    No moat? The network is the moat. It would be almost impossible at this point to recreate the Care network on the scale necessary to be profitable. The Care brand is syonymous with, uh, care. Recreating that brand nationally would cost hundreds of millions. Competing in just one city would probably cost at least $10M. Urbansitter raised $15M and hasn't managed to build any momentum outside of San Francisco.

    There is a bear case to make against Care, that the unit economics are poor and ultimately the profitable business (tax) isn't scalable and the scalable business (matching) isn't profitable. And there is no reason to believe the matching business will ever show profitable unit economics. And seeing as Care hasn't hit the inflection point yet after 10 years, it never will, and is doomed to the long flat part of the hockey stick chart. That's a reasonable bear case.
    Feb 11, 2016. 03:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alea Iacta Est: Control4 Is Sure To Shatter  [View article]
    Here are the instructions to install a printer in a Google Chrome laptop. Not exactly "OK Google, install printer":

    To connect your classic printer, enable the Google Cloud Print connector using a Windows or Mac computer that's connected to the printer. You'll need Google Chrome to be installed on the computer. If you're using Windows XP, make sure you also have the Microsoft XML paper specification pack installed.

    Once Google Chrome is installed, follow the steps below to enable the Google Cloud Print connector in Google Chrome.

    Turn your printer on.
    Log in to your user account on the Windows or Mac computer.
    Open Google Chrome.
    Click the Chrome menu Chrome menu on the browser toolbar.
    Select Settings.
    Click Show advanced settings.
    Scroll down to the “Google Cloud Print” section. Click Add printers.
    If prompted, sign in with your Google Account.
    If you signed up for 2-step verification, you need to enter an application-specific password instead of your Google Account password. You can generate the application-specific password on your Authorizing applications and sites page.

    Select the printers you want to connect, and then click Add printer(s).
    The printer is now associated with your Google Account and connected to Google Cloud Print. You can print to this printer whenever you’re signed in with the same Google Account on your Chromebook.
    Feb 10, 2016. 08:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com: Too Little Too Late?  [View article]
    Care is currently spending 16% on R&D. Match.com spends 6% and Match is managing like 25 different sites across the world. Care is managing one relatively low-traffic site. My bullish assumptions on Care margins assumes that Care has little competition (Bright Horizons amputated Sittercity, competitors in UK and Canada are in decline) and can spend relatively little on R&D once it hits cruising altitude. Care is not Match (low moat) or LinkedIn (saturated market), there is huge latent demand out there, it just needs to be reached, and that is expensive at first. Based on my anecdotal observations, Care is increasingly benefiting from word of mouth. That's the advantage of a network business, customers attract customers.
    Feb 5, 2016. 06:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com: Too Little Too Late?  [View article]
    Maybe Care will start selling nanny liability insurance, that would be really high margin. Opportunity sometimes comes dressed as tragedy. One of Care's competitors in the UK is already doing that. But I don't see how the background check provider isn't the one that's liable. Suing Care is like suing the bulletin board where you found the flier. Craigslist isn't liable for Craigslist killers.
    Feb 5, 2016. 03:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com: Too Little Too Late?  [View article]
    Morgan Stanley analyst estimates 5c earnings in 2016.
    Feb 4, 2016. 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com: Too Little Too Late?  [View article]
    So Care is losing money, and if it continues to lose money, it will run out of money? No kidding. On the third chart it says Care will close 2017 with $40M. That seems like a safe cushion.

    Here is how Care gets the stock price to $30 in three years using perfectly reasonable assumptions:

    26% growth per year, revs double in three years
    2018 revs of $275M
    Care management has said the company can do 20%-25% ebitda margins in 3 years, compare with Match.com or Opentable or eBay
    Assuming conservative 18% ebitda margins*$275 = $50
    Assuming conservative 20x trailing ebitda multiple => 20*$50 = $1B
    $1B/33M shares = $30 stock price
    Feb 4, 2016. 05:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anavex: Rebounding With The Help Of A Glorified Stock Promoter Who Just Fooled The Bulls Again  [View article]
    Avanex was a hype stock promoted by George Gilder backs in the 00s. I can't see "Anavex" without thinking "Avanex."
    Jan 7, 2016. 03:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IDT Corporation: Upcoming Spinoff To Unlock Hidden Sum Of The Parts Value  [View article]
    The accrued expenses are the cost of delivering the calls. That's a fixed cost plus depreciation. There is little incremental cost to delivering more calls.
    Dec 29, 2015. 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IDT Corporation: Upcoming Spinoff To Unlock Hidden Sum Of The Parts Value  [View article]
    The customers buy cards and then the minutes on their account are expensed once the minutes are used. Because the expenses are largely non-cash, the negative working capital is mostly an accounting fiction.
    Dec 29, 2015. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Central Square: New Role At PICO Holdings  [View article]
    This is 20 years of PICO. Don't fall into the trap.

    http://bit.ly/1YKk1YO
    Dec 3, 2015. 06:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bright Horizons Is A Compelling Short At $68  [View article]
    The highest margin and growth (and lowest capital) business is backup dependent care. It was about 1/7 of revenues but 1/3 of profits in the most recent quarter. The biggest competitor in that business will soon be Care.com which ultimately has better economics and right now is trading at a fraction of the value of BFAM. This is a classic example of go with the digital disruptor not the bricks and mortar incumbent. Care doesn't have to do much to start to erode BFAM's huge margins. A large part of backup dependent care is a very simple business - send a nanny to an executives home on short notice. That business is easily disrupted by an app, which Care will release next year.
    Dec 1, 2015. 05:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IDT Corporation: Upcoming Spinoff To Unlock Hidden Sum Of The Parts Value  [View article]
    Ultimately IDT's clients are India, Cuba, Kenya, Mexico, etc. Those regimes see long distance as a source of foreign income. As long as that's the case, IDT probably has a decent business.
    Nov 28, 2015. 02:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IDT Corporation: Upcoming Spinoff To Unlock Hidden Sum Of The Parts Value  [View article]
    You're a little too optimistic on the telecom side (that business might not be worth more than 4x) and too pessimistic on Zedge and other, which includes a valuable building in Newark, NJ, though it probably washes out to the same result. The cash probably deserves a 40% haircut, but you're undercounting the cash, so that washes out too. I haven't heard anything about a special dividend.
    Nov 26, 2015. 11:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weakness In Radiant Logistics' Acquisitions Masked By Fair Value Of Contingent Consideration  [View article]
    The TNI acquisition was made for, what, around $1M altogether? Who cares? As for overstating the goodwill, the franchise is easily worth far more than the goodwill to an acquiror. So for that reason alone, the goodwill is probably understated.

    I don't know how the SBA and Wheels deals will do, they might succeed or not. The Wheels Canadian operation is high-margin and stable, the US truck brokerage is losing money. The success of that deal rides largely on the ability to increase the margins in the truck brokerage. Expanding from forwarding into truck brokerage is an unproven strategy and we'll see if Radiant manages to pull it off. But focusing on the arcana of accounting goodwill doesn't really get to the central issues with Radiant. Crain is probably better at making deals than running the business. At this point he has to run the business and that's the real challenge.

    Btw, good research on how much in earnouts Radiant actually paid. I always wondered about that.
    Oct 24, 2015. 09:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Help On The Way For Yelp?  [View article]
    Yelp articles are always immediately spammed by small business people complaining about the salespeople. Yelp is powerful, that's why it's making enemies.
    Oct 21, 2015. 03:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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