Seeking Alpha

billyjoerob

billyjoerob
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View billyjoerob's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Niska Gas Storage cut to Sell with $0 price target at Citigroup [View news story]
    good call hector
    Jun 15, 2015. 08:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com: Realization That Modern Sales And Marketing Programs Can Be Effective Is Progress? [View article]
    it's funny how emotional the reaction to care.com is. maybe it's the female ceo that vexes people. let's look at care's seo marketing. a search for 'pet sitting' turns up care at 2 in the search results after yelp. dogvacay and rover.com, which have received nearly 100 million in vc funding, are further down. and that's not even care's primary business. or let's look at homecleaning. care's result is just 3 down from homejoy, which has received 38 million in vc funding. ok, which would you rather own - dogvacay, rover and homejoy at roughly 138 million in vc funding, or care, which can be purchased in the open market for an enterprise value of less than 125 million. not to mention care's solid tax business, which is probably worth about 80 million. if care were still private it would probably be one of the hottest ipos of 2015. care is a vc investment at a discount to what the vc's paid. don't confuse a stock and a company.
    Jun 5, 2015. 05:40 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 1347 Property Insurance: Strong Long-Term Prospects [View article]
    right sorry got it mixed up with tfsc never mind.
    Jun 4, 2015. 04:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 1347 Property Insurance: Strong Long-Term Prospects [View article]
    did kingsway spin this out ? looks like it was a spac. the original buyers were also granted warrants at 10 dollars so they can sell at 8 and then keep the warrant as a lottery ticket. kingsway has a large tax asset so any transaction is going to be tax free for kingsway, meaning it wants to compound as quickly as possible without worrying about taxes. it's also canadian so it wants the money while us dollar is strong. the other comparables have relatively expensive stock - at 2x book - so a transaction at 1.5x book or 12 dollars could still be quite accretive for an acquirer, essentially the equivalent of selling shares at 1.33 book - bad for existing shareholders maybe but good for empire building management. the ipo was in last may so any transaction at this point is long term capital gain.
    Jun 4, 2015. 04:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Professional Diversity Network: Dilution Coming, Avoid From The Long Side [View article]
    can you explain how you can be bullish when the company generated $3 million of losses last quarter and is running low on cash with 15 million shares outstanding? I don't see the service that it provides and how it can survive. looking at the bod it looks like scam, to be honest.
    Jun 2, 2015. 07:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com: The Train Wreck Continues [View article]
    "Our combined US Matching and Payments businesses, which represented 80% of revenue in Q1, were breakeven from an operating loss perspective, and were profitable on an adjusted EBITDA basis"

    Not a joke.
    May 20, 2015. 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com: The Train Wreck Continues [View article]
    Care does need to be more candid about the marketing numbers, and the CEO has said that Care will lay out exactly what the numbers are for new members in the next earnings call. The only reason to disclose more is if the numbers are improving.

    When examining the results, it's important to compare apples to apples. The core business is profitable and driving down costs by 15% over 2014. The increased SG&A and marketing expenses are due to building out the European and B2B (and Citrus Lane) businesses. The gross margin declines are because lower margin payments is now a bigger share of revenues. Care has raised $278M and the market value of the stock is roughly $200M. That is not a massive destruction of shareholder value. I wouldn't worry too much about the used furniture or subleases. Those are not even side issues.

    It's not easy to get people to pay to use a website. The fact that Care manages to get ordinary (not just wealthy) families to pay an average of $167/year to use a website shows just how much latent demand there is for the service. As costs for web advertizing continue their inexorable decline and brand awareness of Care.com increases, it is highly likely that Care will emerge as a highly profitable and zero capital business with a massive market opportunity.
    May 20, 2015. 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com Turning Losses Into Profits, Maybe [View article]
    Hey guys I have some thoughts on Care.com here.

    http://bit.ly/1FkKhB6
    May 16, 2015. 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Niska Gas Storage cut to Sell with $0 price target at Citigroup [View news story]
    What is gas migration? And what about the loan due in 2016? Any chance NKA could be bailed out by the steeper curve? thanks
    May 15, 2015. 07:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There A Dividend Bubble: Kinder Morgan Edition [View article]
    No.
    May 11, 2015. 05:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pioneer Natural sinks 2.5% as Einhorn slams PXD, other frackers [View news story]
    That does seem like a big hole in his presentation.
    May 5, 2015. 09:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com Turning Losses Into Profits, Maybe [View article]
    Care isn't Twitter. It doesn't trade on inside baseball like mobile conversion rates. It trades on "does this company have a prayer of ever making money."
    May 4, 2015. 08:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com Turning Losses Into Profits, Maybe [View article]
    They'll probably have 20000 tax customers by the end of the year (for the tax customers, matching is included in the $800/year fee). Those tax customers have a NPV of $4000/per customer and should generate about $12M of cash flow. If matching is the razor blade, then the payments are the recurring, high margin razor blade. It's hard to go out of business when one of your businesses is a high-margin, recurring business like payments/tax preparation.

    The problem with the matching business is that it's competition is free. There is no cost to word of mouth or Craigslist or canceling the service and relying on one sitter once you find her. The payments is the need to have service that will cement Care's hold on the broad domestic services market, not just babysitting.

    I don't think it will take a long time to figure this out. There aren't a whole lot of high growth, high-gross margin companies out there with a real path to profits, and Care is one of them.
    May 3, 2015. 08:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com Turning Losses Into Profits, Maybe [View article]
    My CRCM call not looking so hot, lol.

    Add up Breedlove associates and Homepay search traffic and equals 100% more than the old Breedlove alone. A lot of traffic for the tax product. If Care ever acquired SC and then switched the power users from ADP to Homepay = $$$.

    I see Care is hiring a third person to do policy stuff. It's bigger than some think tanks. A VP, director and associate of policy. Hard to know what all those extra salaries are doing, must be in anticipation of new regulations surrounding the amnesty.
    May 3, 2015. 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TheStreet: An Interesting Play Below $2 [View article]
    TST also has a $150M NOL asset, so the cash is more valuable being invested in acquisitions than paying TCV an expensive ransom. And if TST management were really committed to boosting the stock price, it wouldn't be diluting shareholders by 2-3% per year. The real yield is closer to 3% than 6%.

    TCV is probably more interested in the financial info businesses than in the stock tips, that's safe to assume. The CFO has said the two businesses will probably be split. Maybe TCV will buy the financial info biz (in exchange for preferred stock) and leave TST shareholders the tax asset, the cash and the profitable subs business.
    Apr 27, 2015. 04:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
344 Comments
272 Likes