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billyjoerob

billyjoerob
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  • Special Situation: New IPO Crashes 90% Out Of The Gate On Unexpected Dump [View article]
    By what date?
    Oct 22 09:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Special Situation: New IPO Crashes 90% Out Of The Gate On Unexpected Dump [View article]
    $530k of accrued officer compensation. So basically the money that goes in will ultimately end up in the pockets of the officers, one way or another.
    Oct 21 12:32 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Special Situation: New IPO Crashes 90% Out Of The Gate On Unexpected Dump [View article]
    Established doesn't mean profitable. June quarter I see $267k revenue and $383k ordinary expenses. Unprofitable with significant debt. Headed towards zero.
    Oct 21 12:18 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Special Situation: New IPO Crashes 90% Out Of The Gate On Unexpected Dump [View article]
    You guys are being way too kind. This was a classic pump & dump scheme. "Consultants"? Please. Ordinary investors have been ripped off and if management is willing to defraud the 1st investor, what makes you think you're different? It's not as if management was some unwitting bystander while the stock got pumped up to 31x sales. I wouldn't pay a penny for this, much less 4x sales. The dumping just got started.
    Oct 21 12:00 PM | 26 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Penn West Survive The Free Fall In Oil Prices? I Think So [View article]
    Ha you're right DD I need some new material.
    Oct 11 04:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Penn West Survive The Free Fall In Oil Prices? I Think So [View article]
    That explains a lot, actually. Fit all the subprime properties in one stock, overspend the cash flow, and fund the dividend with more shares. Makes perfect sense. The investors won't know the difference because they just want the dividend. Of course it doesn't explain why everybody always says that Pee-wee has such prime properties.
    Oct 10 02:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Penn West Survive The Free Fall In Oil Prices? I Think So [View article]
    Are the longs going to consider why they've been wrong about this stock for most of recorded history?
    Oct 10 09:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West: Putting Its House In Order [View article]
    If shale oil costs are high and OPEC controls the market, how can shale be a ponzi scheme? It only makes sense to invest in excess of cash flow if incremental capacity is expensive. In that scenario prices are only going higher.
    Oct 5 06:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • From 2012's Fastest Growing To 2014's Deep Value, Transglobe Energy Is A Buy [View article]
    The chart of TGA looks pretty much like the chart of Brent crude, except more volatile. If Brent goes to $90 or below (and it just fell out bed) TGA could get crushed. I like the stock, the level of cash is very high (mostly in the receivables from EGPC) but there's no need to buy such an ugly chart. Anything below $6 is in freefall territory and would induce end of year tax loss selling.
    Sep 22 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Blyth Q2 Earnings Shows No Bottom; Stock Hits 20-Year Low [View article]
    Interesting color about withholding payments to promoters. I wonder if that wasn't the Blyth strategy, withhold payments while negotiating a way out of the deal.
    "Oh so you want your cash? No problem, wait here while I strangle your baby . . . " Good work by the Georgens, interesting to see what they do next.
    Sep 15 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • America's Car-Mart: A Subprime Lender Masquerading As A Car Dealer [View article]
    Why isn't the ROE higher? It generates only low teens ROE. For a company taking that kind of credit risk, you would expect better returns. $3 earnings on $25 BV is 12% ROE. OK but not great.

    Here is what management said in 10K:

    Management believes that the ultra-low interest rate environment combined with a lack of other investment alternatives is attracting excess capital into the sub-prime automobile market and increasing competition. In an effort to combat the increased competition the Company will continue to focus on the benefits of excellent customer service and the “local” face to face offering to the market in an effort to help customers succeed.


    It didn't do too bad during the recession, so I think that puts a dent in the idea that this is a cyclical business. In fact, it looks to be the other way around, the company does poorly in the face of increased competition from the traditional car dealerships. So while I agree that this looks overvalued, it doesn't look like the kind of business that has or will blow up. So far, management has actually done a pretty good job of credit quality. Remember that the company sells these cars at 100% markup, so if it needs to repossess the car, it still has decent collateral.
    Aug 30 11:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Penn West's Internal Review [View article]
    This could be management giving themselves a reason to lower the dividend. Interesting to see if/when management steps up and buys more shares or issues themselves options. It's been a while.
    Aug 16 08:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RadioShack: Buying The Stock Outright Is Still A Losing Proposition. But With Downside Protection, It Is Becoming A Viable Bet [View article]
    Speaking of retailers with cash problems, do you have any opinion on JCP? The bonds have been recovering nicely this year and the stock looks ready to head back to $15. I don't want to hijack this thread, but I imagine the same people trade RSH & JCP.
    Aug 10 06:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's The End Of The Coal As We Know It.. [View instapost]
    Any way to get that coal from Wyoming or wherever to China?
    Jul 26 02:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Blyth's Management Can't Be Trusted: Stock Drops 85%, Yet CEO Makes Millions Via ViSalus [View article]
    I wonder if it isn't just incompetence. The Jr. took over and was responsible for this deal, and he was just so desperate for a home run to show that he was a big shot that he got taken by a bunch of savvy salesmen. You have to remember, Blair and Mallen and especially Sarnicola are professionals. They are the .0001% when it comes to selling ice to Eskimos. They sandbagged the results, then reworked the deal so that they were guaranteed cash if the milestones were hit, and then hit every impossible milestone like clockwork. And the Georgens were on the hook and couldn't do much about it.
    Jul 26 10:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
289 Comments
228 Likes