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billyjoerob

billyjoerob
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  • TheStreet: An Interesting Play Below $2 [View article]
    The most likely outcome is that management drives the stock into the ground via acquisitions and/or poor results (letting Cramer leave?) and then when the price is in the pennies, management buys itself out (with help of TCV) and lives happily ever after. This happens over and over again with PIPE transactions. Once the PIPE deal is done, the buyer of the PIPE essentially owns the company, even if it does not technically run the company. It makes no sense that TCV (a private equity firm) would invest $55M in TST and be satisfied with owning just 10% of a website. It wants to own the whole thing. This is not being run as a public company, it is being run as a pre-private company. Management and TCV are conspiring against the shareholders.
    Apr 25, 2015. 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TheStreet: An Interesting Play Below $2 [View article]
    TCV purchased the preferred shares (and 1.1M of warrants) when the stock was in the teens. Assuming TCV shorted roughly 4.5M from that level, the investment has come out quite well. Now, however, it is dead money and a very small position, just $7M. I could see TCV authorizing a large repurchase at say $2 that might shrink the shares by 30%. Then TCV would own roughly 16%. Maybe TST management is sandbagging results to drive the stock down to a level where it makes sense to buy back a lot of shares.
    Apr 24, 2015. 05:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citigroup Earnings Normalization Yields 65% Upside And Optionality Via Warrants [View article]
    As long as dividends are under 10c/quarter there is no adjustment in the strike price. That means that in practice the dividend will never go over 10c/quarter, assuming C management doesn't want the dilutive warrants to trigger, which is reasonable.

    You seem to have reached your conclusion (warrants are cheap) and all evidence to the contrary (warrants trade at massive implied volatility, are not adjusted for dividends) is discounted.
    Apr 23, 2015. 09:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Citigroup Earnings Normalization Yields 65% Upside And Optionality Via Warrants [View article]
    I don't know what the right premium for really long dated options is (assuming that B-S undervalues long-dated options), but 43% volatility seems too high. We're not talking about a small amount, either. The different is about $5.
    Apr 23, 2015. 09:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citigroup Earnings Normalization Yields 65% Upside And Optionality Via Warrants [View article]
    Also keep in mind that the strike price of the warrants is NOT reduced for any dividends, unlike traditional options.
    Apr 23, 2015. 07:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citigroup Earnings Normalization Yields 65% Upside And Optionality Via Warrants [View article]
    2017 leaps trade at volatility in the low 20s vs the warrants which trade in low 40s . That may be worth it, as your calculation suggests, but 2017 leaps at around 21 looks like a better bet than the equivalent of 2019 leaps at 43 volatility.
    Apr 22, 2015. 10:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Injections And Higher Prices, Go Figure... [View article]
    Look at a long term charts (monthly) and it looks like a massive inverted head and shoulders.

    http://bit.ly/1Gc1rCR

    That makes sense if you figure that marginal natgas production is coming from oil wells. Shut down that production and natgas should rebound, plus the increasing demand from electric generation. So long term natgas looks bullish.
    Apr 20, 2015. 07:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com Turning Losses Into Profits, Maybe [View article]
    Homepay search traffic explodes, far outpaces "homework solutions" (no, not for math problems) and sittercity.com. It's pretty clear from 10K that management is betting everything on the payment platform. I could see the company split in two, with sittercity/care/BFAM as one company and Homepay as another.
    Apr 16, 2015. 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com Turning Losses Into Profits, Maybe [View article]
    Nearly $100M invested in doggy day care.

    "Rover.com of Seattle on Thursday announced a $25 million investment, bringing its total funding to more than $50 million. That puts it ahead of DogVacay.com of Santa Monica, California, which said it has raised $47 million."

    http://bit.ly/1BJFsLG
    Mar 31, 2015. 05:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com Turning Losses Into Profits, Maybe [View article]
    New 13D from something called Tenzing Capital.

    Homepay is off the charts.

    http://bit.ly/1D89P5p
    Mar 27, 2015. 07:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Seeking Alpha, From One Contributor's Perspective [View article]
    As long as you brought it up, Chris, are you related to the Chris DeMuth who used to run the think-tank AEI?
    Mar 27, 2015. 08:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • T2 Biosystems: Impressive Opportunity With Sepsis Diagnosis [View article]
    What if the hospitals don't want to reduce expenses? You're saying this is cheaper. OK, but hospitals aren't in the business of reducing expenses, they're in the business of billing Medicare and insurers as much as possible. They may buy this machine and then see a major source of revenue disappear. $130,000 sounds like a lot of money.
    Mar 26, 2015. 09:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • T2 Biosystems: Impressive Opportunity With Sepsis Diagnosis [View article]
    So 1/200 patients die a preventable death so the hospital can save $100? See you in court, buddy. Good luck explaining p-values to the jury.
    Mar 26, 2015. 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • T2 Biosystems: Impressive Opportunity With Sepsis Diagnosis [View article]
    What happens if doctors continue to recommend anti-fungal medicines as a precaution just in case and thereby destroy the rationale for using T2?
    Mar 26, 2015. 08:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com Turning Losses Into Profits, Maybe [View article]
    You said that Care can't get a foothold in elder care. Why do you think that is? You're right that the economics of the "babysitter" market alone aren't necessarily that favorable. And what's your experience using Care, or hiring care providers? Thanks
    Mar 25, 2015. 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
329 Comments
261 Likes