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EliteYoda

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  • Aerosonic Announces Increase in New Orders Including Multi-Year Altimeter Order from the Defense Logistics Agency [View article]
    Nice new contract for Aerosonic (AIM). Pleased to see management is performing well and landing these new contracts; the company needs the increase in revenues. The market cap stands today at about $10M so a contract over a couple years netting $15M should I would think at least give the EPS a boost and valuation a rise so the pps could move back up to about $4 over time, currently trading just under $3.
    Nov 28 11:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 11 Stocks in the $60s that Should Trade in the $80s [View article]
    Yes, great article, all very very good picks along with justifications for why these stocks are trading under fair value. I especially agree with how undervalued PEP and MON. I think both will have blow-out earnings and guidance for the next quarter. With the most recent earnings call both of these were sold off because of speculative traders playing earnings but the fundamentals are still intact there.
    Apr 24 05:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crop Progress: Planting Already Behind Schedule [View article]
    Oh, you know the future? Wow, cool.
    Actually, the 'bull market' pushing the entire grain complex up, up and away is a multi year move and will not slow down any time soon, in fact it is just getting started. Growing demand is pushing farmers to plant more wheat/corn/soy and with the pathetic crop for 2011, demand will sky rocket along with the prices for everything Ag.
    MOO will sky rocket along with the Ag stocks. It is amusing how 'experts' are complaining that the recent run-up in Ag prices are caused wholly by speculative traders and will soon be unwinding positions making prices drop have really no clue about how powerful the upcoming boom will be in the Agriculture space.
    In 20 years from now, new resource wars will be fought because of tightening fundamentals in Agriculture. We are already witnessing riots in the mid east because of food shortages and these moves are not just caused by one-off events like bad weather for one season. Get ready, buy some MOO and take the profit ride along with the boom in commodities and the Ag market.
    cheers
    Apr 24 05:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 9 Ways to Play the Agricultural Boom [View article]
    poconos27 - good question. Im sorry I dont know much about 'BG' so I cannot respond to that one but I do hold MOS and in my opinion, the price of gas/oil is NOT correlated or at least should not be correlated to the price of potash (MOP). It seems though that as the US dollar weakens it supports oil at elevated levels and so the rest of the commodity space seems to keep floating up, including wheat/corn/soy in that picture. And since potash prices move up generally when wheat/corn/grains prices move up then I guess you could say that it is generally correlated but the primary factors for potash pricing are dependant on the details of the upcoming contracts with China and India. Potash inventories are at record lows and dropping further while Potash demand continues to strengthen so I would imagine that current Potash prices at between $500/tonne and $600/tonne will not last long and possibly by the end of the year we will see further increases (usually up about $25 to $50 per tonne every other quarter unless there is a boom then the sky is the limit). Also, demand at around 60M tonnes annually will remain or increase so the earnings for MOS and the others in the space should rise dramatically in Q2/Q3/Q4.
    cheers
    Apr 24 04:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wendy's Poised to Prosper in Long-Term [View article]
    Yes good article and interesting view points about Wendys. I can safely say that in my humble opinion, Wendys is by far the BEST fast FOOD in the fast food industry. If I decide to actually eat fast food on a particular day, which is not often, then I will invariably do a drive through at Wendys. About 3 years ago I vowed to never again make a purchase at VOMIT McDonalds after eating the worst tasting and worst quality 'food' I have ever experienced at a McDonalds. The same goes for VOMIT KFC and Taco Smell; although Pizza Hut I boycotted for a different reason, one is time and again the delivery agents expected a tip and would get mad if I didnt give one and two Dominos has better tasting pizza these days. So Wendys is the only choice for fast food, the new natural cut fries with sea salt are FABULOUS. The spicy chicken sandwich is the best in the industry and the meat in the burgers is must higher quality than other brands. Also, having all the other choices like Frostys, baked potatoes, chili, etc makes it a clear winner.
    Wendys has always hit a home run the FOOD but the company itself just really cannot seem to turn a profit. What is going on over there?! Sell some high quality food that should be able to sell itself and turn a profit! It is that simple! But in recent years they just continue to underperform which is why I think the stock has just flat lined. BUT now however, since they may be dumping the Arbys brand, maybe finally the company can focus on making Wendys profitable and shareholders will profit. I posted a long time ago that they should just dump Arbys and let the Wendys stock soar and they finally look to be doing this and the stock indeed is showing a bump up; it has been obvious for years that Arbys SUCKS hard and it is a great business decision to DUMP Arbys ASAP.
    Just like in 'Demolition Man' the movie where Taco Bell became the only fast food in the future because of 'Franchise wars' (hehehe), I think that in the future, Wendys will be the number ONE fast food chain and eventually the population will stop eating at sickly McDonalds and KFC causing vomit and other organ damage.
    And I think that the commentors idea to bring back 'Wheres the beef?' ORIGINAL commercials would be a great strategic promotion for Wendys; in case any Wendys execs are reading - you can pay me back in a year gift card at Wendys thanks.
    GO WENDYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    WHERES THE BEEF???!!!
    Feb 5 06:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Agrium: A Cheap Way to Still Play the Fertilizer Boom [View article]
    Where to begin, oh where to begin with Ycharts.. sheesh.
    While I agree with the basic premise that AGU is a good buy, I have to stress that it is not a good buy BECAUSE of technicals but it is a good buy because of fundamentals. Disregarding the fundamental picture is why in my opinion, using technical charting to value a stock and predict future price action is nothing more than hocus pocus.
    In this vigorous analysis of technicals, at no point in the discussion was anything remotely close to a fundamental driver even mentioned.
    The fact about the potash, nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer producers is that the FUNDAMENTALS are what is driving the share price (valuations) NOT charts and short term traders. Sure, the volitility in these stocks you can account in some part to traders playing in the stocks, but only short term. The large annual moves of these fert stocks have nothing to do with traders or speculators, they are driven by very slow long term fundamental factors within the strategic industry of fertilizer. Not a single mention in the analysis of the fact that in Q4, potash bought from distributors who bought wholesale from companies like AGU, were LITERALLY driven in trucks direct to the fields and applied to the soil, NO fertilizer was left over to be stored and the farmers could literally not even buy anymore because none is stock piled and distributors are literally sold out! Potash Corp (POT) made a statement in their last earnings call that they are LITERALLY SOLD OUT of potash for the entirety of Q1 2011!!! The supply/demand picture is the most bullish for potash prices it has ever been (or at least in decades) and these kinds of fundamental market scenarios take long periods of time to unwind, so you will continue to see the share prices of an AGU, a POT, a CF going up and up and up in the next few years. They have shot up so dramatically (regardless of low ball takeover bids - POT for example)
    in recent months because only now are long term institutional investors understanding how tight the grain and fert markets are and the situation is getting even better for fert producers.
    To state that the ferts are over priced at current levels simply because the chart shows a sharp run up in share prices in recent months, completely disregards and does not account for the steepening fundamentals occuring in the global fert and grain markets.
    But hey, if you want to completely base your buy,sell,hold actions on stocks you are long or short on charts and technical analysis in order to pump the website, then please by all means if you think that AGU or POT or CF or MOS is overpriced here, please feel free to SHORT these names and in a couple months when they are all up 30% higher from where they are now you can give me and a lot of other smarter long term investors who focus on fundamentals all of your money, thanks!
    Good luck with the chart technical analysis and I suggest reading a crop report once in a blue moon in order to digest the long term fundamental drivers happening all over the world.
    Feb 5 05:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Fresh Start for Mosaic: Company an Attractive Takeover Target? [View article]
    Yep, any who sell fertilizer names right now are just plain fools, like you said. POT and MOS are primed to sky rocket for the next few months at the very least. I would though not look to much into the difference in the p/e ratios between the two Canpotex players because MOS is more leveraged to nitrogen and phosphates while POT is more leveraged to potash and potash is the real growth story for 2011/2012, Potash Corp has a much greater capacity to increase production to meet demand than MOS has (especially in the sky rocketing cost of potash per tonne) so the difference in the growth rates is why you see the difference in p/e ratios. Historically, the whole fert space forward looking p/e hovers around 40 so even for investors who think these names look expensive, they really are NOT expensive, they are cheap given the fundamentals and extreme growth they have for this year and next. Anytime any on this site have talked about the ferts getting too expensive and looking 'toppy' and they suggested to go short these names, I have just laughed at and privately snickered as I knew with their out of the money covers the pps would continue to sky rocket; buy some shares, buy the ETF, do anything just please do NOT get in front of these freight trains and short them, you will just get hammered.. good luck all.
    cheers

    Disclosure : Long just about every fertilizer name (POT, MOS, MOO, AGU, CF..... etc)
    Jan 31 08:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Delivers Fantastic Quarterly Profit and Guidance: More to Come [View article]
    Yea, according to Bill Doyle in the earnings conference call, the CEO of Potash Corp told investors that there really is NO demand destruction at all and there only exists an increase in demand looking into 2011. Even though China did get a very slight price discount on the 6 month contract of potash, the key is that going forward the Canpotex marketing arm and the entire market for potash is going to be smaller contract time frames so prices will have to be negotiated and renegotiated every other month which tells a very BULLISH tale for potash price per tonne in 2011 and 2012. They asked another executive about inventories and he said that Potash Corp was basically SOLD OUT for Q1 2011 !!!! Also, there is literally not even stock piling yet resuming because the soil has been unkept for so long, the buyers are literally buying it in the tons, putting it in the trucks and driving it out to the fields and applying the fertilizer without being able to store any at all! Doyle said only maybe by 2012 or 2013 will the world grain situation be in position whereby potash can be stored, for now the soil needs immediate application yet they are sold out and food shortages continue to be the story so the fundamentals for potash prices is starting to really firm up here, look for POT to sky rocket up past $200/share by mid 2011.
    On another note, it is amusing to me that we now-a-days must 'let the analysts catch up' with their price targets and expectations on stocks when is it not the case that they get paid to come up with decent projections of price action for the future? I mean, many of these firms and analysts still have not gotten around to increasing their price targets for Potash and other stocks while others pre-earnings had increased price targets but to price points which the stock has already blown through and others that are at $185 to $200, these guys are WAAAyyy to conservative and really never tell investors anything. Why do the analysts have to 'catch up'? Why not just leave them behind from now on, they are useless! LOL
    Jan 31 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nelson Peltz's Trian Fund Trims Tiffany Stake [View article]
    Interesting. I think it would be great news for Wendys if it could be broken away from Arbys. Arbys stinks and is just dead weight, WEN stock would fly sky high as well as the company if Arbys were sold. Great strategic thinking.
    Jan 28 12:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will China’s Potash Deal Stink Up the Fertilizer Market? [View article]
    The 'Real Reality' is that charts cannot predict a single thing and 'p/e' metrics tell an investor nothing of the fundamentals which are pushing these Ag stocks higher right now. Granted once a stock like POT is above say $190 or $200 pre Q1 earnings release, I will admit, 'technicals' are the driver and what matters in the price movement at that time. Im not a 'tough critic', Im a fundamentalist and this article was throwing technical metrics around to support a viewpoint for what is going to possibly cause a decline of POT pps. For now, 'technicals' amount to 'mumbo jumbo' when up against the fundamentals of the potash industry.
    'Reality'? Well, as of today (the then 'future') POT earnings have been a '..surprise on the upside..' with increased guidance to boot.. why? because of Ag fundamentals occuring in reality. Where is the stock trading? $174 ..
    " ..so can it get up to $180 or $185 ... sure it can "
    Hate to boast but ... I told ya so ...
    cheers

    Do or do not, there is no try
    Jan 28 12:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Fresh Start for Mosaic: Company an Attractive Takeover Target? [View article]
    Yes, Canpotex will control half of the worlds potash in 2011 and beyond and the two main players within this marketing arm are POT and MOS. Cargill getting out for their own reasons and with a tax break to boot, this only give MOS more flexible financial options as well as being a takeover target. With MOS shares still looking cheap and Cargill unwind not having any affect on share price, MOS shares still look cheap based on fundamental valuation. MOS is a screaming BUY here as well as POT and the other potash plays.
    Do or do not, there is no try
    Jan 28 12:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 9 Ways to Play the Agricultural Boom [View article]
    POT earnings sky high!! And revised guidance upwards, with current p/e at 33, it still looks cheap as historical p/e is about 40 not to mention that 2011 earnings will be much higher and forward p/e is only 19 right now! Current pps is about $174 and with current earnings estimates and normalized p/e the pps should be trading at about $182 (pre split)!! Get yourself some POT :P
    Jan 28 12:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Fresh Start for Mosaic: Company an Attractive Takeover Target? [View article]
    "... having trouble making sense of the price action [today] .. I took profits on MOS first thing this morning.."
    well, you answered your own question, everyone sold off because they act like you, they do not really know the value of what they hold so on any news they sell first and ask questions later. Understand now? tsk :-/
    Jan 19 06:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 9 Ways to Play the Agricultural Boom [View article]
    yeap, MOO all the way and POT as single best play of 2011 in my book.
    Jan 19 12:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will China’s Potash Deal Stink Up the Fertilizer Market? [View article]
    Yes, true, Canpotex includes MOS, POT and AGU and as MOS has told of 5 fold profit increases and POT is the industry space leader in that same marketing arm, it stands to reason that POT earnings will surprise on the upside. When fundamentals are so bullish in direction (up and up and up and. . etc) then 'technicals' really mean nothing other than taro card astrological mumbo jumbo; a better measure is the historical p/e which when potash is on fire, trades at 40x to 45x times earnings and right now sits at p/e 33x with a price tag near $174 so can it get up to $180 or $185 pre earnings release, sure it can. Once earnings of insane level proportions are reported, will it begin to trade above $190/share, well then the technicals come into play along with the broader market, I think though the fundamentals give valuations above $200/share for the next 12 months easily.
    Jan 19 12:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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