Dendreon's Provenge: Looking Past The Noise [View article]
eric.whitman:
2. Does p=0.01 indicates "maybe"? It is 4.5 MEDIAN SURVIVAL ADVANTAGE. Taxotere showed ONLY 11 weeks survival advantage. The second trial DID SHOW over 3 months of SURVIVAL ADVANTAGE but unfortunately it was underpowered, hence, it wasn't stat-sig. Please explain why P=0.01 is not stat-sig?
3. The question was CORRECTED so that it will be EXACTLY THE SAME as the efficacy questions that are being asked on every AdCom. Want to talk about Scher? Why don't you check his COI (Conflict Of Interests) here???
Shame on the FDA that overturned a drug with NO safety issue that a vast majority of the panel member found it to be efficacious. SHAME SHAME SHAME.
Dendreon's Provenge: Looking Past The Noise [View article]
One "minor" point has been forgotten here. Could there be another reason for this decision?
One has to ask himself whether a 17-0 vote that the product is safe; a vote made by a panel organized by the FDA that consisted oncologists and immunologists - the same panel that voted 13-4 that the product is effective will result in a negative decision by this same FDA IN A "VACUUM"??? or, in other words, is there a chance that the FDA wouldn't had approved Provenge in a "pressure free" environment?
Heck ... just check the HUGE short position on DNDN and the HUGE open interest in the option market to imagine that ~others~, non-medical/scientific considerations "might" have been involved in this decision ...
Dendreon: Revisiting the Risk/Reward Scenario [View article]
Just my 2 cents:
JMP's target price is $24 assuming 50% approval. Adam Feuerenstein's target is "in the 40's"
Assuming an approval, $1 bln revenues (2-3 years down the road) and a 10x sales multiple (as in today's MEDI's deal) as a future takeover value for Dendreon -- that's $125/share. Throw in 10% dilution and another 30% discount (2-3 years) and the expected bidding war (Roche, Novartis, Pfizer) could end at $60-$80 before the end of THIS year.
So -- the risk reward ratio is even better that described above -- can anyone name a better risk/reward play in the market?
Dendreon's Provenge: Looking Past The Noise [View article]
2. Does p=0.01 indicates "maybe"? It is 4.5 MEDIAN SURVIVAL ADVANTAGE. Taxotere showed ONLY 11 weeks survival advantage. The second trial DID SHOW over 3 months of SURVIVAL ADVANTAGE but unfortunately it was underpowered, hence, it wasn't stat-sig. Please explain why P=0.01 is not stat-sig?
3. The question was CORRECTED so that it will be EXACTLY THE SAME as the efficacy questions that are being asked on every AdCom. Want to talk about Scher? Why don't you check his COI (Conflict Of Interests) here???
Shame on the FDA that overturned a drug with NO safety issue that a vast majority of the panel member found it to be efficacious. SHAME SHAME SHAME.
This is all about money, money and more money!
Dendreon's Provenge: Looking Past The Noise [View article]
One has to ask himself whether a 17-0 vote that the product is safe; a vote made by a panel organized by the FDA that consisted oncologists and immunologists - the same panel that voted 13-4 that the product is effective will result in a negative decision by this same FDA IN A "VACUUM"??? or, in other words, is there a chance that the FDA wouldn't had approved Provenge in a "pressure free" environment?
Heck ... just check the HUGE short position on DNDN and the HUGE open interest in the option market to imagine that ~others~, non-medical/scientific considerations "might" have been involved in this decision ...
--- please correct me if i am wrong ---
thank you very much, corrupted world
Dendreon: Revisiting the Risk/Reward Scenario [View article]
JMP's target price is $24 assuming 50% approval.
Adam Feuerenstein's target is "in the 40's"
Assuming an approval, $1 bln revenues (2-3 years down the road) and a 10x sales multiple (as in today's MEDI's deal) as a future takeover value for Dendreon -- that's $125/share. Throw in 10% dilution and another 30% discount (2-3 years) and the expected bidding war (Roche, Novartis, Pfizer) could end at $60-$80 before the end of THIS year.
So -- the risk reward ratio is even better that described above -- can anyone name a better risk/reward play in the market?