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DougRonald

DougRonald
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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will 'Good News' Finally Be Good? [View article]
    Thanks for an interesting article, Jeff; yours are often the most provocative and well-supported on SA.

    In this one you seem a little giddy about bashing the Fed-bashers. That's Ok, I suppose, because I know you get bashed for your viewpoints frequently. But don't you think we're still somewhere in the middle-innings with respect to the Fed? Inflation (CPI or "Core" PCE) is nowhere near the Fed's target range, and is actually moving in the opposite direction. This suggests a possible problem that shouldn't be discounted.

    I think business growth means meaningful capital expenditures in plant & equipment, expansion of employment and growth on the top line. I don't think it means stock buybacks and cost-cutting to improve price-earnings ratios. If equity values aren't supported by underlying business growth, then we're blowing a bubble, aren't we? Climbing your favorite "wall of worry" won't seem so heroic if we pull the thing down on top of ourselves.

    Your take on lagging employment, personal income and retail sales? Your take on the last 2-3 years' disinflation? Are you confident that you can jump off the wall in time??

    Thanks!
    Jan 6 04:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rosengren explains dovish FOMC dissent [View news story]
    If there's no downside to the Fed's monetary accommodation, why worry about when to reduce or remove it at all? I suspect the Fed knows full well it is flirting with a big jump in inflation that cannot be contained without blowing up the bond markets.

    Or worse, with deflation that cannot be controlled.
    Dec 20 03:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Former head of QE blasts program [View news story]
    I agree with you Lakeaffect, about BBro's comment. However, the Fed's plan has worked to the extent the stock markets have climbed to unsustainable highs. Money had no place else to go. That's what Wall Street's big banks and investment houses wanted - and they got it, paid and received.

    It's a house of cards, and at some point it will come tumbling down, as the dollar (and other world currencies) cheapens against any hard asset.

    Remember too, that Yellen is literally the author of QE.
    Nov 12 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Same Story - 2 Very Different Titles [View article]
    Right and wrong, Jeff. BAML was named as the source in both headlines; from that standpoint, point well taken.

    However, the research note itself spoke to two subjects: the economy and the markets. Each headline grabbed a different part of the story.

    Headlines, including those here on SA, have frustrated me for a LONG time, because they almost always provide a slanted view rather than a more objective view. I wish SA editors would make a better example for other media sources to follow - but I realize it's all about getting "clicks" and "click-throughs" these days. Sad.

    Thanks!
    Nov 8 11:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Team Alpha Retirement Portfolio: A Dividend Gem Hidden In Plain Sight [View article]
    RS - Thanks for the ideas, as always.
    SON is a solid dividend stock, but investors could lose the yield to stock price declines. SON is near a many-year high, and I would like to buy it closer to the 200 DMA (or even 50 DMA). Insiders have sold, net, over 620,000 shares in the last 3 months (zero buys) and nearly twice that in the last 12 months.
    Lastly, something I like to look for, SON has very little opportunity for selling covered calls to enhance yield. No options activity, probably due to the low beta and volume.
    fwiw...
    Doug
    Nov 6 03:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On the hour [View news story]
    "White House says 'NO' to Republican proposal", unless GOP lets government re-open without conditions. This is a non-starter for GOP.
    Oct 10 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shutdown and CA computers behind jobless claims surge [View news story]
    SA Editor, you should lead with this item. NOT with "GOP waves white flag", which is premature at best, and possibly flat wrong.

    Come on, guys. This market is headline crazy enough without you inciting the players...
    Oct 10 11:09 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Road To October's New Highs [View article]
    Europe didn't happen.
    Syria didn't happen.
    Iran didn't happen (well, yet).
    China didn't happen.
    Fed's in no hurry to taper.
    We're not in a recession (apparently).
    If the Debt Ceiling debacle doesn't happen, than hell's bells, this must be economic paradise.
    I'm going all in....!

    [Thanks for your article]
    Sep 26 10:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Gold Rally Bites The Dust [View instapost]
    Robert, thanks for this viewpoint. I own gold, but I don't sleep with it.

    And seriously, what's to analyze about gold? The price is either bought up or sold down, and you can perhaps see where demand changes and supply changes are located. You can speculate about the correlation with the greenback, or debt, but that's about it.

    As opinions about the world's fiat currencies ebb and flow, so goes gold, imo...
    Sep 12 03:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The Syrian Crisis Mean For Stocks? [View article]
    You must realize that many of these people have been "educated" by those who only wish to tear down America. They have been taught that Agent Orange was chemical warfare by the US. Only one of many bits of misinformation now firmly embedded in younger generations.

    Your (or any) effort to provide the truth will fall on deaf ears...
    Sep 9 10:02 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Investors Know How To Interpret Data [View article]
    Jeff, thanks for the article.

    I think the point was not anything to do with money supply growth or GDP growth (which you added for context). Rather, that these sorts of graphs are being used to deceive unknowing investors, to scare them and then sell them something. If some can learn from this, it's of great value.

    Doug Short, who you regularly cite, does a great job of presenting and interpreting data in charts. I recommend his work to anyone who's interested.

    I read your work regularly for an overall context and interpretation of the data. Very important, because so much of the time even correctly presented and interpreted data can seem alarming. In fact, the demographic and cultural shifts that seem to be happening are quite alarming to me, given the apparent growing dependence on the government for basic living needs and more.

    I would like to hear your take on that latter - does it seem to be true, and if so, what are the ramifications?

    Thanks!
    Aug 30 10:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Preparing For The September Shuffle [View article]
    Kevin,

    I get that we don't know what will happen, nor how the markets may react. But it seems like your analysis could lead to a few probable outcomes for September (ie, short-term):

    Let's say there is no (significant) military action on Syria - the Obama folks seem to be walking this all back today, saying they can't be sure who was behind the chemical attacks.

    Let's say the Fed begins reducing bond purchases very slowly in September, with reiteration of its zero interest rate policy.

    Then what? Thanks.
    Aug 29 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Right And Wrong In The Markets [View article]
    Carl -- to paraphrase, if you look around the table and aren't sure who the genius's are, it might be you!

    Be careful.

    Kevin, thanks for a good read.
    Aug 22 02:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Charlie Munger Thinks Oil Is Absolutely Certain To Become Incredibly Short In Supply [View article]
    Good article, thanks. But have to say that as I read I kept thinking, so all one has to do is buy oil producers' stocks and hold it for 80 years.... I can't really afford to do that.
    Aug 13 11:09 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha fires a shot at Bloomberg, StreetAccount [View news story]
    Eli,

    Generally, I like the bullets and I like having the stock symbol. However, it seems like the Market Currents items have gotten longer and longer. For a recent example, please look at the 8/2 item on Maxwell (MXWL). It has 7 bulleted paragraphs, and seems too long.

    When an item like this shows up on my main page, it fills up the space and blows out whatever was there. It used to be that I could see the headlines of maybe 3-5 items in the Market Currents summary.

    I especially like to be able to see each individual item as it comes up on my main page. Lately there will be a whole "reel" of new items that spin through too fast to read.

    Maybe just the headlines? Or, maybe a headline and a summary bullet for each item? Whenever I see something of interest to me, I can easily follow it to the Market Currents page and read details.

    Thanks!
    Aug 2 01:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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