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dreadlordnaf

dreadlordnaf
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  • Is Bitcoin Really Any Different From Gold? [View article]
    I am neutral on bitcoins. I like the idea but still seems like just another fiat currency, albeit a better one than many of the current fiat regimes.

    I am a little disappointed about many of the “stock assumptions” the author makes about gold. They are very elementary and seem taken from the CNBC style guide for talking head commentators.
    Apr 9, 2013. 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Be A 'Doomsday Prepper' [View article]
    Howard’s article uses the typical strategy of painting anyone who doesn’t follow the talking heads on CNBC with a broad brush. If people who buy gold and alternative investments are “doomsday preppers” I would call the stock market cheerleaders who miss pretty much every downtown until it hits them in the face, “utopia preppers.” They envision a future where stocks always rise, where the DOW will hit 100,000 and where unlimited money printing always leads to prosperity.

    Also I love how Howard purposely conflates totally different issues to try and make his point. This is a sign of someone grasping at straws because they have no logical argument.:

    “Think of alternative investments like flood insurance: You need someexposure — no more than 10% of your total investable assets, the advisors agree — but you don’t want to mortgage your house to protect against a 100-year flood.”

    Buying gold is nothing like taking out a mortgage for expensive flood insurance, mainly because it’s very difficult to borrow money to buy gold. It’s not difficult to borrow money to buy stocks or real estate though. So your analogy is a complete fail because it actually highlights the fallacy of what most people who own no gold do.

    Also Howard clings to the juvenile critical analysis train of thought that if someone hasn’t happened yet, it never will, when he bashes Schiff and Faber. Inflation hasn’t happened yet, therefore it never will and everyone who predicts it is wrong. Well I just ate a Big Mac yesterday and Im not fat yet nor have I had a heart attack.
    Therefore by Howard’s logic, there is nothing unhealthy about this.

    Here is a some final food for thought:

    How many Doomsday preppers by Howard’s definition, such as those who hold primary hard assets such as gold, got screwed in the last two major stock market downturns, 1999, and 2008? Well given gold is up since both of those, very few.

    How many Utopia preppers who were in all stocks, especially those “hot stocks” being recommended by “investment experts”, got screwed during those same events? I’ll leave you with that….
    Apr 4, 2013. 05:11 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Gold As The Economy Gets Better, $1,400 Price Target Likely [View article]
    I second this. Not sure how borrowing money from china to spend and creating it out of thin air to spend somehow equals economic growth. If it were that easy every country in the world would be a paradise.
    Apr 1, 2013. 04:13 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's absolutely idiotic to own SLV for two reasons, says technician Peter Brandt. First, he believes fans of silver get a far deal better trading the futures, rather than the ETF. Second, the daily chart remains in a strong downtrend, and a break much lower puts long-term support of $25.50 in play. Beyond that, the next major support is $20.75. [View news story]
    I saw the title and thought this would go into questioning what really is behind SLV, like what are you getting when you buy it.

    He is right on one thing, you shouldn't own SLV. If you want silver, by silver, not SLV. Read their prospectus. Here are a couple gems I copied and pasted from the SLV prospectus:

    "As an owner of Shares, you will not have the protections normally associated with ownership of shares in an investment company registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940, or the protections afforded by the Commodity Exchange Act of 1936."

    "The value of the Shares will be adversely affected if silver owned by the trust is lost or damaged in circumstances in which the trust is not in a position to recover the corresponding loss."
    Mar 28, 2013. 04:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Fight The Fed: Investment Strategy For The Coming 'Unwind' [View article]
    Semp hit the nail on the head. Our economy and government finances are on life support right now with $1 trillion a year in Fed purchases. If they stop doing that, the whole ponzi scheme comes crashing down.

    There is no way the Fed can unwind.
    Mar 28, 2013. 03:53 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Country Risk For Mining Jurisdictions - March Edition [View article]
    Going to have to cite this article for poor writing due to lack of explanation. Nowhere is "risk" defined.

    Risk of what? Risk of losing some revenue and having a slightly worse quarter because the country's infrastructure is inefficient or requires a bribe here or there to get things done? Risk of having the entire mine nationalized? Risk of meddling from the local gov who may want higher royalties but aren't really interested in taking it over? What about the risk in developed countries? Is that measured here? "Windfall" taxes that have been proposed in many developed countries represent a confiscation of profits, which is no different than some third world government altering contracts and agreements to get a bigger share of the pie.

    If the response to my comment is to "read the reports" then I would say this article is pointless.
    Mar 28, 2013. 11:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Your Gold ETF Holdings Be 'Cyprused?' Yes [View article]
    To clarify and this is important, no gold was "confiscated" in the US in the 30's. Government agents did not go door-to-door searching houses for gold. People were simply asked to turn it in and while most did I am betting a lot never did. I would say people had far more faith in their government back then when they were "asked" to do something than they do today. How many people you think would adhere to a similar request today?
    Mar 27, 2013. 11:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget Gold $4,990: We Seem To Be Heading Towards $1,450 [View article]
    "This lack of extremely bullish articles does lead me to believe that we are clearly approaching a bottom in gold. "

    I stopped reading there. That is like saying the number of movies being released which are "based in winter" clearly means that it is going to snow next weekend. Epic elementary-school-level critical thinking fail....... Just wow..
    Mar 25, 2013. 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Leonard Melman: Are You Prepared For Hyperinflation? [View article]
    "DOW 30,000 by 2008, why it's different this time." - Robert Zuccaro, 2003

    "Real estate will never go down" - pretty much everyone in 2006

    I have more of these awesome quotes but am away from my main computer now so can't access them. But it will be nice to add your name to this mix.
    Mar 7, 2013. 01:58 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Leonard Melman: Are You Prepared For Hyperinflation? [View article]
    User 6707651,

    There is an easy answer to your question, think of these two scenarios:

    1) You found out there a was a shipwreck off some coastline which are you familiar with and can easily get to which contained numerous tons of gold bars.
    2) You found out there was a shipwreck off some coastline which you are familiar with and can easily get to which contained a few hundred million Prussian francs (thalers) in their paper form, which at the time was of equivalent value to that same amount of bold in scenario #1.

    Which would you put effort into salvaging and which would you completely ignore?

    Why does the gold still have value after all these years but the long dead fiat currency doesn’t? It’s called intrinsic value. Gold has several properties based on its chemical composition. It doesn’t decay, tarnish, or lose consistency over time, it’s hard (but not impossible) to counterfeit, it can be easily divided when needed, its rare in the Earth so it’s valuable in small amounts, and it’s easily recognizable. No matter how much you hate gold or dislike it, your emotional stance toward it will not affect its placement on the periodic table of elements giving it the atomic number 79 which for whatever reasons based on the physical laws of our universe, give it the above properties. This is intrinsic value - value that comes from its own physical properties, not value that comes from an artificial construct of some parliament or government ordering people to value it.

    Disliking or not having faith in gold will not take any of these physical properties away. Enough people disliking fiat money though can make it worthless. This is why you cannot spend Prussian francs anymore.

    Just like when you build a house, you need the materials you build it with to have certain properties, which are ideal for house building. Same with money. Whatever “thing” you are using as money needs to have certain properties suitable for this use. Oil wouldn’t be a good money because it’s hard to transport, you would need a huge truck to make a large purchase with it, and it can easily blow up in your face. Now, I’ll let you determine the flaws of using paper or digital 1’s and 0’s for money given my above analysis… I think if you put some thought into it you will come up with quite a few.

    In reality only a few materials on this earth have shown they have the physical properties suitable to be consistently used as “real money.” This is why time and time again, people gravitate toward those materials which have these properties.
    Mar 7, 2013. 01:53 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What It Really Costs To Mine Silver: The Pan American Silver Edition [View article]
    Is Navidad now considered a total loss? I thought they were still in negotiations to get this working again. Or is that just the years loss of production they are writing down?
    Feb 22, 2013. 04:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finally A Silver Lining For Gold Miners? [View article]
    What!!?? A stock is up 11% in one day, more than some other stocks are up over 3 years?!! Well then given that I can probably find a 100 different instances of a single stock being up one day and compare it to the 3 year return of an entire asset class and find this same example over and over,,, you're logic is mind blowing. I would encourge everyone to follow Macro's awesome lead. In fact I highly suggest you borrow on margin to your max limit and invest in DUST. Good thing he picked 3 years though to make his comparison, if he picked longer it might have conflicted with his point of view and the cherry-picked example he used.

    Anyway I was a little concerned today when waking up on if I would have my daily gold-bashing article to read on SA, but once again, Macro pulls through with insightful expertise-in-hindsight, confirmation bias, and conflated comparisons. It is articles like these that help reassure me there in fact is no bubble in gold, and that we are far from it. I will start to worry when people like Macro start suggesting gold.

    In the meantime, because I don't invest in leverage ETFs that suffer from high decay rates to their value the longer you hold them, this latest down turn in the precious metals and miners means only one thing: awesome time to buy more.
    Feb 15, 2013. 10:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Congress Could Fix Its Budget Woes, Permanently [View article]
    This author, like many Keynesians, believes in magic. If you believe this author’s point of view, you must also believe that dinosaurs were on Noah’s Ark, since that clearly explains and reconciles modern archaeology and biology with creationism right? Wrong… You must also believe in perpetual motion machines....

    Pumping more fiat money that serves as purely a medium of exchange into the economy does not increase the amount of good and services out there which is a real measure of our standard of living. Who would care if they were a millionaire if there were no good products to buy and no businesses providing useful services. Apparently the author thinks this would be great.

    Fiat money is purely a medium of exchange. It doesn’t matter what the money supply, it has no effect on actual production and standards of living. This is why the best performing stock market last decade was Zimbabwe, who also engaged in stimulus through monetary policy like this author is proclaiming. You can double, quadruple, or amply the money supply 10 fold. It is still chasing the same amount of goods and services and thus no real increases in the standard of living apply.

    So if this solution is so wonderful and magic, maybe the author can explain why everyone doesn’t simply print their way to prosperity? Why do we need real entrepreneurs and manufacturers since all we have to do according this this author is diminish the value of money that people already have and lower their standards of living, and through that we will be living in utopia.

    There is only one way increasing the money supply could help things: it gets around minimum wage laws. It lowers the real minimum wage and thus allows low skilled workers who have been kicked out of out the market because their productivity can’t justify the current minimum wage to get back in since inflation effectively lowers the real minimum wage employers have to pay them. If this is what the author wants to happen then just come out and say that.

    People like this author will one day be looked back at like those who persecuted Galileo for thinking *gasp* that the Earth revolved around the Sun.
    Feb 14, 2013. 11:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Gold Miners A Permashort? [View article]
    Macro never fails to disappoint. Once again he misses the obvious:

    “In any normal industry, if the unit cost of production was rising at 15% (especially in a low-inflation environment), pretty soon the industry as a group would go bankrupt. “

    Or just maybe, it is NOT a low inflation environment. They had an interview with the CEO of Sandstorm Gold, formerly of Silver Wheaton. He cited an example where 5 years ago when they were looking at an investment for a new mine, the mine was projected to be quite profitable when gold was around $1000 an ounce. Due to financial reasons they weren't able to make that investment though. Today gold is around $1600 an ounce and when he re-looked at that sane investment, it’s not profitable anymore even though gold is 60% higher. Costs for a brand new mine have risen more than 60%. This is because of inflation, not because of “ageing mining costs.”

    Why do you think subway foot long sandwiches are no longer an actual foot? Or that airlines don’t include free meals anywhere? They are responding to inflation in a way they think is more consumer friendly, by lowering the quality of their product versus raising the price. The inflation is quite real and 5 minutes of internet searching can reveal many people who’ve debunked the official statistics quite legitimately.

    I view this non-correlation with miners and gold a blessing. It is allowing me to accumulate more at a cheaper price.
    Feb 13, 2013. 10:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Hyperinflation Is A Myth (And What It Means For Gold Prices) [View article]
    Wow you really are on another planet.. You actually think the Fed will be able to sell all that crap? There are no private buys NOW when inflation is supposedly tame. The Fed is already having to buy 50-75% of newly issued treasuries. So what makes you actually think there will be more buyers when inflation is higher? No one is going to want to buy... The only way will be if they jack up interest rates to beyond ludicrous to where it crushes the US government's ability to maintain the debt. Then the only way they can maintain that is to print more money... There is no way out of this for the Fed. Once you start monetizing debt, game over.
    Feb 12, 2013. 10:54 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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