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dreadlordnaf

dreadlordnaf
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  • Should You Short Silver Now? [View article]
    I think you are trivializing for the purposes of re-assuring your own point of view, the "manipulation aspect."

    Whether you believe it or not, you can’t deny the obvious truth that the number of outstanding silver futures contracts greatly outnumbers what could be physically delivered. People are creating contracts out of thin air for silver, banking that most people don’t ever want to take delivery. Now saying that, I admit this sort of leverage can lead to manipulation on either side: either it artificially lowers the price of silver or raises it. It just depends on what’s being done with all those futures contacts that no one will ever be able to take delivery on. But that is the real catch though isn’t it? Here is some insight into what they are doing:

    http://bit.ly/11v4KjB

    You are telling me that when two times annual physical silver production can be sold in 15 minutes that this market is not artificial?

    What happens when enough people want to take delivery on these phantom contracts and finds out they can’t? The whole scheme will come crashing down. This isn’t so much a conspiratorial manipulation I am pointing out here but the reality of having this many claims on silver greatly outnumber actual silver.
    Jan 14 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Is A Dot Com, Love The Promise And Appreciate The Risks [View article]
    So by your logic, as long as the AMZN bubble hasn't popped yet, its still good to be in it. That is like saying it's fine to live in a house with a crack in the foundation since it's really not a problem until the house actually collapses. Since who knows it might collapse tomorrow, or take 10 years.

    Good luck to all those with that strategy. Still short AMZN....
    Jan 14 01:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In The Stone Age [View article]
    If you are really trying to help out the average person, then you need to take a step back even further. The average person will never have the time and dedication to sift through all the info about a stock or ETF, separate the BS from the truth, and weigh it all based on competing opinions from themselves and so called “experts.”

    The “average person” never had to do this historically though because they could just put money in a savings account in a bank and get anywhere from 6, 7 , or even 8+ percent interest. Over time with compounding that adds up. But with the Fed determined to crush savers and keep interest rates near zero, they have effectively destroyed the only safe means for an average person to save for their future. They have flung everyone into the wild west of the stock market with little regard if the average person is capable of handling that or not. I mean what’s good for Wall St. is good for America right? At the same time by crushing and dis-incentivizing savers we have destroyed our capital base and lessened the pool of savings to loan out to small business etc, which help fuel economic growth. It’s not surprising that if you look at the nations with the highest savings rate, historically and today, those are the countries with the most robust growth.

    One day in a future “history of economic thought 101” class they are going to look back at what we did today and ask themselves: WTF were they thinking back then?
    Jan 14 11:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why 2013 Won't Be Another 1973 [View article]
    You are right the comparison to 1973 is foolish because we were in way better shape in 1973. Our economy was more sound, the deficits lower, the debt lower, unfunded government liabilities lower, the trade deficit lower, regulatory burden lower, etc etc etc…

    Though there is one aspect that is sadly exactly the same as 1973: real wages - http://bit.ly/XkIofE

    2012 marked the 39th year in a row that real wages were below their 1972 high. I got a feeling 2013 will be year 40.
    Jan 9 02:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Refiners Are A Buy [View article]
    I was looking at NTI but I can't seem to find a good one-stop webpage on how MLP dividends are treated for taxes. Anyone have a good link? Are they basically treated like REITs and taxed at ordinary income rates or do they qualify for the lower dividend tax rate? Thanks.
    Jan 9 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Fails 3 Times [View article]
    If you like this article, you may like the author’s previous articles:

    Gold Bubble: Final Warning? - Date: 11-10-10 Gold price: 1390.50

    Is TV Signaling a Top in Gold? - Date: 12-8-10 Gold price: 1385.50

    How ETFs Have Spurred the Gold Bubble - Date: 7-25-11 Gold price: 1613.50

    Unemployment Picture Points To Gold Bubble – Date: 10-17-11 Gold price: 1682.00

    Gold's Technical Picture Is Broken; Collapse Coming – Date: 6-25-12 Gold price: 1570.00

    Today’s gold price: 1659.00

    Chartprophet: How does it feel to be completely wrong? Because it looks pretty bad…. You should probably change your name.
    Jan 8 12:52 PM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold's Technical Picture Is Broken; Collapse Coming [View article]
    If you like this article, you may also like the author’s previous articles:

    Gold Bubble: Final Warning? - Date: 11-10-10 Gold price: 1390.50

    Is TV Signaling a Top in Gold? - Date: 12-8-10 Gold price: 1385.50

    How ETFs Have Spurred the Gold Bubble - Date: 7-25-11 Gold price: 1613.50

    Unemployment Picture Points To Gold Bubble – Date: 10-17-11 Gold price: 1682.00

    Gold's Technical Picture Is Broken; Collapse Coming – Date: 6-25-12 Gold price: 1570.00

    Today’s gold price on 01-08-13: 1659.00

    Chartprophet: How does it feel on the inside to be completely wrong? Because from the outside it looks pretty bad…. I think you need to change your name.
    Jan 8 12:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Some will call it a back down, some a bow to reality, but the Basel committee approves a far easier liquidity rule for banks than had been proposed 2 years ago. Lenders will be allowed a wider range of assets that qualify as capital buffers, a lower assumed rate of fund outflows in a crisis, and be given until 2019 (rather than 2015) to implement the new regime. [View news story]
    If I am not mistaken, unless they changed it last minute the "wider range of assets " they are referring to includes bumping up gold's status in regards to how much of it banks can use as a capital buffers.

    This bodes well for gold's future if the big banks are now coming on board.
    Jan 7 01:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Believe The Hype In Gold [View article]
    "The stats I am looking at show deflation. "

    The stats you are looking at are wrong. The official CPI has transformed over the years to a cost of living index, not a price index. This means if steak goes up 10% but half the people switch to spam (which hasn't gone up at all) because they can no longer afford it, then it would only show a 5% price increase. So eventually if prices are so high everyone is living in a card board box, the CPI will stay flat because you effectively substituted living in a house for that box which had no price increase.

    That is why your stats are wrong. You can't eat hedonic CPI adjustments.
    Jan 7 01:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Sony Hand Over Fist [View article]
    Wait you think there are so many negative comments because of "herd mentality???"

    Just keep telling yourself that. Im sure everyone that writes a bad article does....
    Jan 4 07:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Sony Hand Over Fist [View article]
    Gonna have to call BS on you. If thats true about Toyota and for Japan as a whole why dont they just dramatically weaken their currency then? There may be a temporary boost in their earnings, but then once their current import contracts for raw materials expire and they have to renew at a higher price, there is no gain.
    Jan 4 06:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Sony Hand Over Fist [View article]
    Nope, i dont do drugs, and you didnt even counter my point. A weak currency helping a country is a myth or else every country with a crap currency would be exporting powerhouses and rich counties with strong currencies would have no exporters.
    Jan 4 06:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Big Gaping Hole In The Employment Report And Fed Folly [View article]
    You are on the right direction here, but really you are only touching the tip of iceberg.

    If what you are really getting at is, how many of the non-gov jobs in the BLS job numbers are really government funded or subsidized, then the number is even higher. Basically any consultant who has business with the government should be included in this since private consultants are now common in the government ranks. Along with any construction or service company that gets most its revenue from gov contracts or military defense contractor since they are in the same boat. Same with any organization that receives gov grants, loans, or bail outs, etc.

    I think after you subtracted all of these the number would actually be negative.

    Some research on this has indicated that even though official Federal gov figures show a few million on the payroll, the actual number is around 14.6 million workers including consultants contractors. Yet the real figure including all the indirect stuff mentioned above plus state and local is around 40 million workers who are paid from the taxpayer. http://bit.ly/VDAQDf
    Jan 4 04:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is $22 Silver Possible? [View article]
    Shrug, I thought this article would have some talk about the fundamentals of silver, but again its just technical analysis.

    The problem with technical analysis is that, well, it’s useless. If it was actually accurate everyone who could plot points on excel or use a basic forecasting program would be a multi-millionaire, and they’re not.

    Technical analysts are tarot card readers, nothing more. That doesn’t mean they are bad, they are good entertainment and sometimes a good read.
    Jan 4 10:21 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Sony Hand Over Fist [View article]
    This article clings to the false myth that somehow a cheap currency is good for a country, especially the exporters. If that were true Zimbabwe and every other country with a crap currency would be exporting powerhouses and countries like Germany, Switzerland, and Japan would’ve had next to no exports the last few decades due to the strength of their currency. But this hasn’t happened. Why?

    A weak currency will not help Japan or Sony. Apparently people who think this fail to understand that a weak currency also means your inputs are more expensive. All the raw materials, imported microchips from Taiwan, rare earths from China, silver from Canada, oil from the Mid east for energy costs, this all factors into the price of the production of Sony goods and it will all go up if their currency weakens.

    I grew up the 80’s and 90’s and have a cultural affinity for Sony and their products, but I would not invest a dime in them. A weak currency policy is going to crush them as their prices rise by significantly more than their export sales do.
    Jan 4 10:12 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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