Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
  • The Great Recession Is Over: Time To Back Up The Truck  [View article]
    If you like this author's article I also recommend you read: "DOW 30,000 by 2008" by Robert Zuccaro. http://amzn.to/WeTujw

    Jan 2, 2013. 04:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Bad News For Gold  [View article]
    "Go ahead, fight the Indian govt."

    This is kind of an ignorant response. Fighting the Indian government would be like fighting a chain link fence. It may look intimidating but it’s really easy to go around or simple to just cut a hole through it.

    India’s government is the definition of a mess. They do not have authoritarian powers like many third world dictators and they are trying to manage 1.2 billion people. If Indians want gold, they will get it on the legal market or the black market. And if its banks and Indian funds who are driving demand, then government rules will be no more than a speed bump in their way, which they will eventually just go around anyways.
    Jan 2, 2013. 04:07 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Amazon A Buy Or Sell In 2013?  [View article]
    The author seems not to realize that Amazon has missed most of their prior expected earnings in past years. Thus trying to predict their P/E for 2013 based on expected earnings is really just pure fantasy.

    Still short AMZN.
    Jan 2, 2013. 11:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Good Tax News For Roth IRA Investors  [View article]
    My friends consider me somewhat fanatical when it comes to saving money and planning ahead, and that is why I don't have any faith in the whole Roth IRA concept.

    If you are contributing to a Roth then you are making a deal with government that if you give them what they want for 30-40 years of your working life, with nothing in return, they will promise to keep their end of the bargain, hence no income taxes on the back end. This is a flawed plan:

    1) You could die before that happens and never get any of the tax breaks vs if you just do a regular IRA and are at least getting more after tax income while you are alive.

    2) Roths only protect you against income tax, not against any other taxes. If the future holds something like a national VAT or sales tax which is then implemented in conjunction with reduced income rates, then the Roth becomes pointless.

    3) Last but not least, the whole concept of a Roth IRA is not physical law of science, it doesnt have to exist. It's just a law, nothing else. Congress and president created it and they can change it just as easily with a few words on a piece of paper called legislation.

    The last point is the most significant. Most people contributing to Roth’s are doing so outside their work 401k, meaning they are contributing to the 401k, and then also to their Roth using disposable income. This is something most American can not do for financial reasons or a simple lack of financial discipline. And if the current mindset of the country has told us anything, its that, sadly, America seems very ok now with “sticking it to the rich.” Well, just remember everyone is rich to someone who makes less than them, and someone who can afford to sock away 5 to 6k to their Roth from their net income after their 401k contribution is considered rich to a lot of people.

    One day I suspect there will be a “Roth IRA surcharge tax” or something similar that will hit Roths on the back end when they are withdrawn. It will most likely be compared to the estate tax in that it will be framed as only hitting the rich. When that day comes the masses who fall for the cons of the politicians will not care that you paid tax on the front end and are getting double taxed. Just like they don't care about how you are getting double taxed now on capital gains or dividends in regular brokerage accounts, since you already paid tax on that money when you earned it in the first place to invest. Whats another double taxation to today's crop of congressman if it means getting re-elected?

    Good luck all with your Roth. But if you need to make any deal the government today then take your benefit now via the regular IRA. That way you are not dependent on politicians and the easily swayed masses to keep their end of the bargain when you are at retirement age. My bet is that they are going to break, I mean "alter" the deal.
    Jan 2, 2013. 12:06 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 8 Shipping Companies Profiting From The LNG Boom  [View article]
    Well done article. Much better than most the "noise" here on SA.
    Dec 29, 2012. 08:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Platinum Is On Sale And In A Deficit: How To Play It  [View article]
    I am once again going to play devils advocate on platinum, mainly because by looking at its uses it starts to become clear that it has a price ceiling caused by palladium. Unlike other commodities like gold, silver, oil, etc which could take off under the right circumstances because there isn't a good substitute for them, if platinum starts to get too high, industry will just switch to palladium which has many of the same uses, but is much cheaper. Given this I am not as optimistic on platinum.
    Dec 28, 2012. 02:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Prediction For 2013 - All Other Predictions Will Be Wrong  [View article]
    While I appreciate your article, it does follow the same pattern, and suffer from the same weakness as most articles on SA. Meaning that you have a pre-determined viewpoint you want to express to the world, then you cherry pick examples which support this, then come to the conclusion those cherry picked examples verify your hypothesis.

    It would be better if you had a fixed basket of analysts you were judging then looked how they all performed. Maybe if you did this you would see some were way off, but there may be a few that were spot on. Then use that same fixed basket the next year to compare against.

    Otherwise,, honestly while a good read, there isn't much new substance here. Anyone can come up with an idea, then find specific examples that support it - heck that is pretty much 75% of articles on SA. So "A" for effort, but it would be nice if you could break out of this 75% majority and take this concept to the next level and really see on a broader level if analysts were correct or not, rather than just looking at the ones that support the point of view you feel is right.
    Dec 28, 2012. 02:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stillwater Acknowledges Receipt of Shareholder Letter 
    You couldnt even summarize the letter? This whole article seems pointless.
    Dec 21, 2012. 02:35 PM | 1 Like Like
  • Buy Logitech, It Will Crush 2013 And 2014  [View article]
    So don’t get me wrong I like my Logitech mouse and keyboard, but let’s be honest, Logitech has no competitive advantage in the area of computer peripherals. Brand name is their main asset right now. Otherwise there are no barriers to entry for producing peripherals, some Chinese firm could make the same thing for cheaper, and there is no unique or patented functionality on Logitech products that really sets them apart.

    I think if they can continue making quality products that install easily they will do fine, but I don’t see an extraordinarily bright future for them in this area.
    Dec 21, 2012. 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Einhorn And Buffett Are Right: General Motors Is A Great Buy  [View article]
    I think the author underestimates how much car sales have been pushed forward due to cash for clunkers and the existing near zero percent interest rate. So if you are using recent numbers and extrapolating forward to gauge GM’s growth, you are going to be drastically off.

    These interest rates will not stay low forever and once they rise, I think it will be quite revealing when you see how long someone can actually keep their old car running when they aren’t being subsidized either directly or indirectly through the interest rate, to buy a new a new car.

    I would not want to be in any car manufacturer right now that depends on the US market.
    Dec 21, 2012. 02:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Endeavour Silver Drilling Extends High Grade Silver-Gold Mineralization on the San Sebastian Property in Jalisco State, Mexico 
    Cool,, as I own EXK.
    Dec 19, 2012. 10:16 AM | Likes Like
  • 6 Scary Charts On The Hyperinflationary Cliff  [View article]
    You article is good but misses one key point which I think is more important than all your charts in showing how bad things really are: unfunded future liabilities for promises of social security and health care. Problem is it’s harder to compute, but the low end estimates range from $87 trillion all the way up to over $200+ trillion. These numbers are net present value too. That means this is the amount we would need to come up with TODAY then invest it at a steady 4 or 5% return in order to payoff what we have promised.

    In other words we are f'ed....
    Dec 17, 2012. 04:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • $20 Silver, $1,400 Gold Coming In Market 'Flush'  [View article]
    Japan just committed to unlimited QE.
    Dec 17, 2012. 04:25 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Renter nation" is a myth, writes Trulia's Jed Kolko, as so-called Millennials have the same hopes about home ownership the previous generation had. A Trulia survey finds plenty of renters ready to buy, but not enough inventory. Rising prices may bode well for supply as it turns negative equity into positive equity - allowing homeowners to go ahead and sell.  [View news story]
    It still makes no sense and is real estate double speak. Homeowners of course only want to sell when prices are up, but no one is going to want to (or be able to) buy if prices rise too much more, so it's a moot point. Even with FHA allowing you to put only 3.5% down people still can't get mortages. Real estate prices are at an all time low and there is no shortage of houses on the market. If realtors can't get people to buy in this market, good luck when housing prices go up. Too many people got burned in the last bubble to fall for that "real estate prices will rise forever" mantra again.
    Dec 13, 2012. 11:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Renter nation" is a myth, writes Trulia's Jed Kolko, as so-called Millennials have the same hopes about home ownership the previous generation had. A Trulia survey finds plenty of renters ready to buy, but not enough inventory. Rising prices may bode well for supply as it turns negative equity into positive equity - allowing homeowners to go ahead and sell.  [View news story]
    A real estate pumping website thinks people aren't buying because inventories are low???? And that only when prices start rising will people want to buy again? OMFG.... Can you get any more idiotic....
    Dec 13, 2012. 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment