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superpatrol

superpatrol
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  • Beijing reportedly orders Chinese banks to begin rolling-over and extending maturities on loans to local governments, an attempt to push off the reckoning for its own debt issues. Analysts note banks are already not taking the appropriate marks on bad loans. "This is a bad regulation, but I don't think we are going to get a bank crisis," says one.  [View news story]
    Japan avoided a crisis like this in the late 70's because inflation turned bad debts into okay debts. Probably China will be fine, in the near term, thanks to inflation, but I think there are growing risks.
    Feb 13 04:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did The Liquidity Trap Cause The Hike In Gold? [View article]
    Negative real interest rates can happen even in a free market. It happens whenever there is a massive savings glut where people want to deleverage. Supply and demand. More people want to save than to borrow, and are willing to do so even at a loss.
    Feb 6 05:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: U.S. Unemployment Rises To 12.2% [View article]
    participation rate is a problem indeed
    Feb 3 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Are Rates Headed? 3 Scenarios [View article]
    part of the high valuation has do to the nice anti-correlation with the market (CAPM baby). as the price goes higher though, the anti-correlation weakens, because there is less and less upside.
    I see the yield curve steepening between 7&10 yrs, with the Fed policy being particularly effective at targeting up to 5-7 yrs.
    Feb 1 02:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TRW Automotive: Significantly Undervalued, 40% Return Possible [View article]
    TRW automotive was just another case of a PE firm enriching themselves by neglecting to fund the pension. Then they IPO'd it on unsuspecting market idiots, who were drawn by the cash flow.

    Fortunately, they managed to survive the crisis, and reduced costs significantly. The pension liabilities are coming down, and the debt has come way down.

    I am long TRW, but am more sober about the position than I was 1 yr ago. Fortunately I had the wherewithal to add to the position during the recent dip. It's been a good ride, but a very volatile one!
    Jan 20 06:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons to Buy Ancestry.com [View article]
    It might be too rich of a valuation, unless you feel that the earnings growth of the last few years will continue. In that case, this would be a supreme bargain. I think this thing is more cyclical than most people realize, and this might just be a good part of the cycle for them. For that reason, a PE of 24 is too high for me.
    I'd be looking to buy if the valuation drops to 800-900 million
    Jan 18 05:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • About Those 42,200 New Courier Jobs [View article]
    pretty much. my favorite part is that 3 people actually liked my comment
    Jan 9 07:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dec. Nonfarm Payrolls: +200K vs. consensus of +155K, +100K (revised) prior. Unemployment 8.5% vs 8.7% expected. Avg. hourly earnings +0.2% to $23.24. Workweek +0.1 hour to 34.4 hours.  [View news story]
    and what are they now?
    Jan 6 07:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • About Those 42,200 New Courier Jobs [View article]
    another liberal trying to make the numbers seem better than they really are. get a clue!
    Jan 6 04:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barnes & Noble (BKS) plunges 29.1% premarket after announcing it will explore plans to spin off its Nook digital business after its sales grew 70% Y/Y. The company also cuts its FY12 outlook: Sales are now projected at $7B-$7.2B vs. $7.33B consensus, and EPS loss is moved to $1.10-$1.40 vs. $0.63 consensus.  [View news story]
    As an investor you only need to ask whether the two pieces are worth more together or apart. I think they are worth more apart for simple risk-management reasons: if either the physical stores, or the Nook totally bomb, it'll take the whole thing down and shareholders are left with nothing. If the nook and the bookstores were separate, then the failure of one of them will not take down the other. If you really think the nook has a great future and that the brick and mortar stores are a liability, then this spin-off would seem to be a great idea (you can always hold onto the new Nook division shares that are created).
    To me it's really simple: the liabilities of having the two divisions together far outweigh any synergies that exist. I just don't think the synergies are that important.
    Jan 5 03:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Barnes & Noble (BKS) plunges 29.1% premarket after announcing it will explore plans to spin off its Nook digital business after its sales grew 70% Y/Y. The company also cuts its FY12 outlook: Sales are now projected at $7B-$7.2B vs. $7.33B consensus, and EPS loss is moved to $1.10-$1.40 vs. $0.63 consensus.  [View news story]
    this is a fantastic idea, because their brick and mortar stores are actually profitable. A friend of mine suggested to me *months ago* that BKS needs to spin off the nook ASAP. Are the synergies between nook and the stores really that big?
    Jan 5 02:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The ECB just expanded its balance sheet by 20% this morning, notes Louise Cooper of BCG Partners, putting today's funding operation in perspective. This comes on top of the past few months' galloping increase in bank footings. The wordmeisters in Brussels can call it what they like, but QE is underway in Europe.  [View news story]
    most people who think that the ECB needs to step in and behave like a lender of last resort also acknowledge that this isn't going to solve all the problems. The immediate problem after this is that austerity is killing Europe and ironically making budget deficits worse. They need to revisit Keynes and relearn the lessons of the Great Depression, rather than re-experience the Great Depression. The problem after that is that one-size fits all Euro doesn't work unless there is a more massive transfer mechanism of richer states to weaker states. This transfer mechanism in the US "works" such that economically strong states like CA, MN, NJ subsidize weak states like Alabama and Tennessee. http://bit.ly/vi8oS6

    MN and CA would probably be better off without the Deep South, but we crushed them during the Civil War for a moral reason, and if we want to make sure they follow ethical rules, we are stuck helping them out economically as well.
    Dec 21 08:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A EU free Saturday morning shall we? Michael Pettis (not yet available for publication) believes Wednesday's reserve ratio requirement decrease in China is more about the PBOC trying to offset what he believes are continued net outflows of speculative capital from the country. The yuan is no longer a one way bet, and in fact has been trading down sharply each day before the PBOC steps in to fix it.  [View news story]
    i believe china will push on the gas again (pettis would agree), and people will forget about this soft spell at least for a couple yrs.

    but pushing on the gas only works while inflation is under control. i believe china is heading for US in 1970s style problems.
    Dec 16 01:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A EU free Saturday morning shall we? Michael Pettis (not yet available for publication) believes Wednesday's reserve ratio requirement decrease in China is more about the PBOC trying to offset what he believes are continued net outflows of speculative capital from the country. The yuan is no longer a one way bet, and in fact has been trading down sharply each day before the PBOC steps in to fix it.  [View news story]
    pettis is almost the only person worth reading. him, and "shareholders unite" although they don't talk much about china. (and krugman)
    Dec 16 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amid all the gloom and doom about unemployment, signs are emerging that things actually may be getting better. The drop in weekly jobless claims to 2008 levels is one indicator pointing to a slightly improving employment picture; others include gains in small business hiring, a pickup in online job advertising and an increase in job openings.  [View news story]
    i've never understood why people view economic data through a political filter. In fact, it seems to be only republicans who do this. Democrats, including Obama, have long acknowledged the employment data sucks. Even when the unemployment went down to 8.6%, democrats such as Brad Delong were ranting about how this was bad news as the decline happened because of a fall in the participation rate. The truth is, republicans only care about economic data in so much as they want it to be bad. They actively want the economy to do poorly because they care about winning the election more than they care about the country.
    Dec 15 06:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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