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Michael Stavy

Michael Stavy
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  • Arotech's Massive Equity Raise Foretells Bleak Future; Business In Rapid Decline; Stock Headed To $1.75 [View article]
    What is an automatic sale?
    Aug 15 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstone Turbine Shareholders Have More Pain Ahead [View article]
    •Russian sanctions targeting the energy sector will affect its Russian distributor which represents over 10% of sales.

    Of all the sanctions that President Obama will not put on Russia is a technology that will increase Russia's ability to reduce its flare gas carbon emissions.
    May 6 06:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstone Turbine Shareholders Have More Pain Ahead [View article]
    In 2013 there were 43 C 1000 that sold at a total price of 35.6 million. The C 1000 cost per MW was US$827,907/MW or US$827.91/kWh. I used my levelized cost of electricity spread sheet to compute the LCOE generated by a C 1000. If the discount rate is 9%, the C 1000 lasts 20 years, the capacity factor is 95%, the fixed opex is 3% of the capex, the variable opex is US¢0.75/kWh and the cost of the flare gas is zero, the LCOE is US¢2.14/kWh. When the cost of the flare gas and the thermal efficiency are both included in computing the LCOE generated by the C 1000, the LCOE is US¢5.76/kWh. The additional assumptions are that the C 1000 has 40% efficiency, the price of the flare gas is US$4.25/mmBtu and the US average heat rate for NG generation is 3,412Btu/kWh. Check my math! If the C 1000 is FOB at US$827/kWh and it cost $300/kWh for shipping and installation, then the LCOE are $2.66 and $6.27 respectively.
    May 6 06:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valence Technology (VLNC) files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The company, a developer of lithium-ion batteries for vehicles and other high-power equipment, had already disclosed board resignations and a delisting notice yesterday afternoon. Rival A123 Systems (AONE +1.7%), which has its own cash flow problems, isn't showing any ill effects.  [View news story]
    Carl Berg, the 44% equity owner and 100% owner of the long term debt has decided, for some reason, not to continue funding the company any more. He has funded VLNC with LTD and equity purchases for many years. The LTD is 83% of the total debt. The question is why Carl stopped funding the working capital needs of the firm just now when it appears that VLNC is about to breakeven (3 more years) and when the EV market is starting to mature. The current assets are 27.2 million while the current liabilities are 14.4 million so that the unsecured creditors will be paid off. The LTD will replace the current equity and then the questions are where the next 3-5 years of working capital will come from and will the current “56% minority” equity owners get anything. This assumes that the firm’s technology and patents hold up and it will have significant positive cash flows in 3-5 years.
    Jul 13 12:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lithium Phosphate A Lead Acid Replacement [View article]
    These conditions that you have pointed out have existed for years but Carl Berg, the 44% equity owner and 100% owner of the long term debt has decided, for some reason, not to continue funding the company any more. The LTD is 83% of the total debt. The question is why Carl stopped funding the working capital needs of the firm now when it appears that VLNC is just about to breakeven (3 more years). The current assets are 27.2 million while the current liabilities are 14.4 million so that the unsecured creditors will be paid off. The LTD will replace the current equity and then the question is where the next 3-5 years of working capital will come from. This assumes that the firm’s technology and patents hold up and it will have significant positive cash flows in 3-5 years.
    Jul 13 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Research Dissects Lithium-Ion Battery Mythology [View article]
    Hello John: Do you have a worksheet or an explanation of how you arrived at the following statements.
    1. A Toyota Prius uses 1.4 kWh of batteries to save about 140 gallons of gas per year.
    2. A Nissan Leaf uses a 22.6 additional kWh of batteries to save 260 additional gallons of gas per year.

    If you already explained it, I am sorry but I missed it.

    I understand how you computed your statements:
    1. That works out to 100 gallons of additional gas savings for each additional kWh of batteries (concerning the Prius). It is 140gal/1.4 kWh
    2. That works out to 11.5 gallons of gas savings for every kWh of batteries (concerning the BEV). It is 260 gal/22.6 kWh.
    Apr 2 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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