dsrtwriter

Bill Gross: Anything But 0.01%

The problem with Mr. Gross' prediction of a "significantly lower-returning world" is that China and India are not listening.

They are not listening to doomsayers. They will increasingly develop a consumer class which can absorb more output rather than relying on the U.S. foolish spending consumer (aka "sure it is not made in USA but it is cheaper, and, after all, my own job will not be outsourced for a year or so"...)

They are not listening to Al Gorleone or the world preoccupation with mythical man caused "global warming" ( here in Montana we have lots of geological fossils of tropical plants- oh, sorry, it has always been cold in Montana,Al--go back to polishing that Nobel Medal)

It is true that investors will have to be more selective, and, in fact, some smart money managers have done quite well this past year even with a 25% cash position.

No, if we look at the future opportunities, they are going to be largely commodity based long term.Sure, there will be temporary "bubbles", but the fact is that, unlike labor, resources are not fungible. You can't "outsource" copper, for example. You can mine it in a cheaper country, but in the end it faces a world price based upon the inherent challenge of mining and production. In the latter challenge, labor input costs are only part of the equation.

I would like to stay patriotic and support U.S. investments. But for now, the "people" have spoken, and we have an Administration clearly bent on an agenda which makes no economic sense.

At this point, the economic future appears to be overseas..What this shift of economic power will ultimately do to the cause of world freedom is certainly disturbing if one reviews the history of rising nations and their quest for "lebensraum".

How to Participate in the Asset Bubble Safely

I agree that for low risk tolerance, the suggested portfolio of the late Harry Browne is a good option. I would only say that a large portion of the cash should be in currencies other than the U.S. dollar.That is for long term, not worrying about a dollar resurgence and a paper "loss" as a result of holding Can dollars, SFs, Aussie dollars, etc..
Same goes for the commodity based currencies, such as Can,. and Aussie; if commodities drop, these will drop in tandem, but fundamentally they represent a more "real" resource based economy.

In contrast, the U.S. dollar does not represent any known long surviving economy. Manufacturing has been largely lost to overseas for many reasons. Ironically, China has grown rapidly while violating most of the economists' tenets of the merits of "free trade". We have done the opposite. Obama is for the unions, he has hired economists who are Keynsians, and the U.S. dollar will pay the price.

In fact, apart from confiscatory taxation, Obama and friends can only achieve a mission of income redistribution by destroying the dollar. After all, who has dollars? Working middle class and of course the "rich" (maybe).

So I would say, of the 25 percent allocated to cash, I would go:

ten percent Canadian/Aussie dollar (I prefer Canadian)
ten percent Swiss franc or Euro
five percent U.S. dollars

Copper, Gold and Coal Poised to Break Out

Fitz 919 probably misunderstands Trader Mark and his blogs.
I don't think Mark's intent is to give Cramer fatal stock tips.

I have never looked to Mark for buying and selling advice. He trades often very small portions of a portfolio (eg 0.1% pilot positions, etc),which are not practical for most investors.

I look to the site as a treasure trove of information on trends, views of analysts that Mark gleans and publishes, and moreover, when his interest in certain classes of stocks happens to match mine,when his view on where the economy is going coincides with mine, I take it into consideration when investing. He is certainly right on the ever expanding money supply, but it is up to each reader to decide the consequences, and the "term" of time it will take for it to play out. The dollar may crash, but when? It is down now, but may rise again and burn all the shorters. The long term trend is down, but it is the reader's responsibility to decide how to play it.

Verizon: iDon’t Not Want the iPhone

Verizon should stop the "there's a map for that" ads. Obviously a slam at the iPhone and usually negativity does not work.

The fact that they are mimicking the "app for that" phrase means that they want the iphone. It would be a win/win for Verizon and Apple.
Hopefully they will see it that way. I have not traded up my three year old LG Verizon flip phone and I won't until Verizon gets the iphone.

How Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500, Part 1

Really what we are seeing is Apple's move in the past few years from a computer company to an information lifestyle company which seeks real breakthroughs in technology, but more importantly pays homage to the Industrial Design of Raymond Loewy.

Jobs knows that the "look and feel" of a product is critical. Of course consumers expect breakthrough innovation from Apple.

But is the "experience" of the product that builds the brand loyalty.
Consumers learn to trust Apple, to take the leap to a new offering, and rather than be disappointed, the consumer is usually seen to be rapidly trading up as Apple follows on the initial product launch with improvements.

Steve Jobs has in many ways returned to the industrial design roots of the thirties and mid fifties, taking the "edges" off of the computer boxes, the Ipods,the Iphones and laptops.

Who ,three years ago, would have ever thought that Apple, with no experience in the cell phone business, could create a product superior to most phones built by the titans such as Nokia?

So who knows what the future price will be, and who cares. The reality is that Apple has learned from failures such as the Lisa computer and the Newton, built upon them, and tests boundaries.
That will lead to a long growth curve, and moreover, if you look at the laptops the young people are carrying, with Ipods plugged in to earphones, the future of Apple is very secure in all economic cycles.

Gafisa: Think American Housing Market in the 1950s

It is way too high above its 200 day MA to bite at this point.Better to park in a basket of good currencies for a while. Brazil has too much buzz at the moment.

Nominal vs. Real Gains

Many years ago, a very successful Canadian investor, in his book "Anyone can make a million" (ok, the title is a bit much), said that when it comes to the future valuation of a currency, you "just need to read today's newspapers". Everyone reads the news but few really think about what it means.

The Obama Administration and its Democratic congressional majority are making it clear in news story after news story: they are not in favor of entrepreneurship, they believe government is the answer, and their various support groups believe it is now their time to "take back America" from working taxpayers, by taxing them more and devaluing their dollar assets through massive debt.

They do not believe that the United States should be an economically or militarily strong country; in fact they feel that we are the source of most of the world's problems (the apology tours).

So read the papers. They are telling you what to do. And placing a portion of one's assets in gold and other currencies is probably not a bad idea, in addition to some multinational firms

Jim Rogers on the Next 10 Years

It is indeed remarkable that Mr. Rogers cheers a country which has developed most of its technology through stealing and reverse engineering. Our situation is much our own fault for buying into the economists' mantra of the benefits of "free trade". Americans loved cheap Chinese goods as long as they still had the jobs in their own companies, as long as they did not work for slave wages and hours like Chinese children.

Now we see the economic consequences. The greatest tragedy is that as we assault the very character of our founding fathers, as the courts reinterpret a Constitution which was unique in the world in preserving individual freedom, people like Mr. Rogers glorify the economic success of a country which still sells the organs of political prisoners on the black market, and crushes freedom of expression as in Tiennamin Square.

Even the uber liberal Google founder Sergei Brin turns a blind eye when it comes to doing business in China; freedom of information, the mantra of Google, is "relative" when the temptation of the Chinese market beckons. Hypocrisy reigns rampant.

This may not end well for the West; just look at the growth of the Chinese military. If China decided to seize Australia for its resources, would we come to the defense of the Aussies?

Really, you think we would?

Oh, I forgot, we have the U.N., and our President just won the Nobel Peace Prize.

I feel much better now.

What's Next for Gold and the Dollar?

uncontrolled borders, massive entitlements expanding, free trade ,cap and trade. It all equals a lower dollar,debased pension real value, etc.. All the theoretical justifications for socialist spending have never fooled the markets, nor have they fooled the very socialist autocrats who siphon public funds to their Swiss accounts.

As it always has been in history, so it always shall be. Hope and change never made it rain.

Cramer's Stop Trading! Is Starbucks' Instant Coffee Better than Sanka? (9/29/09)

I tried the Starbucks, it is surprisingly good, does not taste at all like instant.

Canada: The Industrialized Market for the Coming Decade

I do not see that it is in Canada's long term interest to decouple itself from the United States. Canada has absolutely no capacity to defend itself from military invasion and seizure of its assets. It takes a free ride on the shield of the U.S..

For Canada to decide that its economic interests are better served by moving under another sphere of influence such as China would ignore its long term interests in preserving democracy and freedom. Canadians and Americans would do well to spend some time reading the history of world conquests and the subjugation of peoples before they throw out strategic partnerships in favor of economics. The Chinese take a very long term view;they are not known as a merciful people to those they have subjugated.

Cramer's Mad Money - Paul Krugman Is Wrong (8/10/09)

I stand corrected. Krugman is not a top advisor to Obama. I guess reading the extreme socialist bent of his columns which range well beyond economic theory,we could call him a "leading indicator" of Obama. Certainly if he worked for Reagan at one time there is no trace of that in his writings.

Actually for those with a leftist orientation, you need to know that people who take a conservative position are not "haters". That label is getting really old. Paul Krugman is not at all stupid, but there is a reason that Economics was once called "Political Economy". The Keynesian set of theory constructs reflects a sociopolitical orientation very different from Frederick Hayek. Who is "right" depends upon one's view of government as either the parent or the servant of the people.

Krugman, from his writings, clearly believes that the people need a government acting as the parent.

At least for the balance of 2009, the federal government of Barack Obama may allow some of us the freedom to disagree, even with economic policies and health care issues.

Next year, who knows?

Cramer's Mad Money - Paul Krugman Is Wrong (8/10/09)

I agree with Dr. Benway. When Cramer says Krugman is wrong I get nervous, but since I know that Krugman is much more a Marxist oriented economist, it is necessary in the Krugman/Rahm Emmanuel world for continued economic downspin,so as to further empower government.

I do not feel sorry for Kramer. Krugman is a top adviser to Obama and the Chicago gang, and Kramer voted for Obama. When you drink the Kool Aid, don't complain,Cramer.

What a Difference a Year Makes! Endowment, Buy and Hold, and Tactical Returns

very good point. I would also like to see that gold analysis.It might provide some helpful clarity as to how to position gold in a market which is currently in recession but has the possibility of trending into inflation, just when everyone has ruled it out.

Time to Buy the Canadian Dollar?

there certainly is an oil price correlation,which seems clear without a regressin formula, but the dollar is more broadly based on a basket of oil, potash, minerals. Commodities may be volatile, but they are going to be needed by others even if the U.S. does not get its industrial base back up to speed.

So I would say that the market knows the Canadian dollar is fundamentally stronger and the the Canadian dollar is likely fairly priced right now, may have some variability, but will likely slowly rise against the U.S. Dollar as the world economy recovers.I would rather have part of my cash in the FXC than sitting in U.S. dollars, as a hedge.The rest is 1/3 U.S.,1/3 Swiss franc, and 1/5 Euro ETFs.
If there is a drop in the market and Canadian stocks and the Can dollar drop, certainly worth investing in some good Canadian companies, where recovery would bring a rise in the shares and a currency benefit also.

Again, the time horizon is probably three years, but Canada is looking like a better bet than the U.S.