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dsrtwriter

dsrtwriter
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  • Yellen Nomination Makes Breitburn Energy Partners A Better Buy [View article]
    excellent analysis.Solid management.
    Oct 11 11:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron Remains A Buy [View article]
    every time I have tried to trade CVX, anticipating a drop, I have been wrong. Now it is a long term keeper. Will add in the teens.
    Oct 11 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bubble Continues To Form In The Stock Market [View article]
    Excellent article. The "nowhere else to go" viewpoint is probably going to be the biggest driver of a bubble.With interest rates inevitably trending up from historical lows,the traditional asset allocation models ( eg 60/40 stocks/bonds) do not make sense. Why hold bonds when the prices are going to trend downward as rates march up? Sure, yields will rise, but prices fall.Bernanke's concern after his first remarks on tapering scared the bond market, was that there could be a rapid exit from bonds.

    Financial institutions are now trying to calm investors, bringing out the traditional allocation mantra of having bonds in the portfolio, but I don't see the rationale. What it will do however is increase the "nowhere else to go" view, and investors will go to stocks increasingly, not wanting to hold cash at zero return.

    The Fed's massive liquidity injection is unprecedented, we don't really understand the long term impacts, but a flight to equities will at some point become unreasonable. Meantime, some relative shift to equities may be warranted for those who have been on the sidelines, but there is probably more of an argument to get out of bonds and park an allocation of low interest yielding cash, than to shift those funds all into equities.

    Sure, zero interest on cash is a negative return, but earning 2 or 3% on bonds which have equal or greater annual price declines is self-deception.
    Aug 3 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Team Alpha Retirement Portfolio: The Only Retirement Strategies Guaranteed To Work [View article]
    excellent article. I am one year from retirement, my current holdings are about 50 percent cash (sold bond funds last month),50 percent various stocks. I like the simplicity of your approach with the 20 stocks listed above. Can I duplicate your approach with any ETF or mutual fund? I know that such a portfolio would need rebalancing over time, and that some stocks may drop out and others join the list, and I don't want to be managing that myself.
    How has your approach done historically compared to the SP500 index? I am trying to compare to passive investing with index funds.
    I am looking at possibly asset management by Schwab or Vanguard, or Tilson, but there is of course the management fee.

    I would appreciate your thoughts. Thanks!
    Jul 20 08:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Team Alpha Retirement Portfolio: The Only Retirement Strategies Guaranteed To Work [View article]
    Excellent article. I am one year pre-retirement, and have an assortment of stocks, and now about 50 percent cash.Trying to decide whether to just put the stock portion in an SP500 index fund,small cap,international, and bond fund, or switch to your strategy of these 20 dividend earners. Problem is that I really don't want to spend time rebalancing if one stock begins to dominate over another in percent of portfolio, and also,as you indicate, over time,some of these will drop out of portfolio and others replace them.
    Can you recommend any ETF or fund that mirrors this strategy?
    Also how has it performed compared to the SP500 over time?
    Finally, do you think I could do better with this strategy than turn my money over to an asset manager like Schwab or Tilson or someone else and pay at least 1 percent for their expertise?

    I know, a lot of questions, but I see that your choices of stocks are solid players,(some, like NEM, I would wonder about currently with gold low). I like the simplicity.
    Jul 20 08:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caught up in the Linn/LinnCo downdraft is BreitBurn Energy Partners (BBEP -8.2%), which Hedgeye slammed this morning as "Linn Energy junior" whose fair value is $2-$8/unit and whose distribution is "largely a mirage." EV Energy Partners (EVEP -0.7%) and QR Energy (QRE -3.2%) also are mentioned as companies that "may significantly understate maintenance capex, and as a result, overstate DCF." [View news story]
    Nice bear stampede try. This company is solid.
    Jul 2 03:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Hits $400: Is Now The Time For Dividend Growth Investors To Get In? [View article]
    Appreciate your detailed review on a day when I am feeling pretty down about my AAPL shares.These shares should be trading in the 440 range.

    I am not selling my shares, and I hope at some point the short sellers get burned.
    Jun 27 12:00 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 9.8% Dividend Payer Breitburn Energy Partners Turned In An Ugly Q1 - What's The Outlook? [View article]
    This company has a very seasoned management team. I am holding BBEP long term.If it takes a real drop I will add to holdings.
    Jun 24 04:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tim Cook's Improbable Victory In Washington [View article]
    First, it is legal. "spirit of the law" and "tax dodge" are terms of art. If the Congress, including Mr.Levin, want to change the laws they are free to do so.

    The United States has one of the highest corporate tax rates in the worlld, almost double that of our neighbor,Canada, and infinitely greater than the highly productive countries of Asia.

    I suggest that the Congress spend more of its time trimming wasteful "make work" and welfare programs, figure a way to get the majority of Americans good jobs so they may become taxpayers, and control our borders.

    And perhaps also pass a law banning former Congressmen, Senators, and President/Vice Presidents from serving on lucrative Boards of Directors or serving as lobbyists.
    May 22 09:51 AM | 26 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple And Goldman Sachs Are An 'Effective Team' [View article]
    Apple does not need to acquire another technology giant. It has the right approach, nibbling away small start-ups with new innovations before the others do.

    While the iPhone has been the latest revenue success, it is not because it was a cellular telephone.The development of the software, the iTunes library, the synergism with other Apple products,made the difference.

    Actually, Apple has never been a "hardware" company. That was Dell, starting with building PCs out of components in Michael Dell's dorm room originally.Apple was first and foremost about software. In the late 90's it was persuaded to license out manufacture of hardware to Motorola, but wisely stopped that process, realizing that it was more profitable to have its own proprietary software/hardware combination. It didn't need a huge market share of the personal computer industry, just a slowly growing, loyal customer base,with the best margins in the business.With that, it could layer on the iPod,the iPhone, into that "ecosystem".

    Steve Jobs realized that ultimately, Apple is a media/entertainment company for its future, and if any acquisitions of major companies are made in the future, it would be better to consider something like Disney/Pixar. No matter what the economy, people today want to be entertained.
    May 11 06:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Is Becoming Irrelevant [View article]
    Apple will likely bow to pressure and produce larger screen,and it will not be a big seller. I think the demographics of iphone users is to some degree different from Samsung and the other Androids.

    Really, the issue becomes "Is that a smartphone in your pocket or are you just happy to see me?", to paraphrase Mae West.

    Many people just don't want to stuff a clunky large screen "phone" in their pants pocket, their sportsjacket, or hang it off their belt.
    There is an argument for elegance in design and functional size.
    The basic laws of physics say that if you want a larger screen, the device has to be larger.

    Some Apple users may want to go that route. But then, what is going to be the argument-that the iphone is now not as large as an iPad?
    Apr 30 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The San Francisco Bay Area's Housing Micro-Climates: A Microcosm Of A 2-Speed Recovery [View article]
    While no doubt some of the all cash buyers are Silicon Valley software types, a significant portion of this market is bought, often sight unseen, by cash buyers from China and India. This has distorted not only the Bay area market, but also Vancouver, Canada and coastal S.California.

    We tend to forget that all buyers in a market are ranked by their ability to pay, not where the money is earned.Income earners in this country are limited in their buying power by income and other taxes significantly higher than in Asia,yet they are competing in a world market for property within their own country.

    Bottom line: it doesn't matter where or how you earn money as an overseas entrepreneur (eg.the Bangladesh sweatshops), if you can make enough, you can buy on the West Coast for cash.It is one of the dirty little secrets of what fuels this buying.
    Apr 29 03:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Waiting Patiently For A Blue Chip REIT Pullback [View article]
    Brad, excellent article.Really knew nothing about REITS, but you are now a great source. I may take a pilot position in a blue chip, but will wait for better prices or just average in over next six months.
    Apr 26 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: How To Admit You're Out Of Ideas [View article]
    AAPL has a loyal following because it had the foresight and creative people to include its own operating system with the "hardware".

    The loyalty is to the user experience as provided by the OS. Samsung can hang all the chrome it wants on its products,it is just a hardware manufacturer.

    AAPL is all about the OS and the seamless integration of its products.Having said that, I would have preferred a major dividend increase along the lines of INTC to the buy back.
    Apr 24 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Takes Back The Crown [View article]
    Maybe we will see even more relationships between Intel and AAPL.
    As for the AAPL :"cool" factor, I don't know, but go in any Starbucks and most of the students are using AAPL, not just iPADS, but frequently laptops. With "Intel inside".

    Recently a major surgical equipment manufacturer came and gave a presentation on Operating Room design, changing optional features on the fly with their architectural software, projected on a screen...from an iPad, not a Galaxy. So I think there is more than a "cool" factor. There is an integration and ecosystem factor.AAPL may be down, but it is by no means out, and the relationship with Intel maybe greater in the future.
    Apr 22 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
351 Comments
524 Likes