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  • Saudi oil production to average 10.5M bbl/day in Q3, PIRA says [View news story]
    This is actually very bearish. So it takes all these outages to keep the situation balanced, else we have a massive glut.

    "Without U.S. shale, Q3 global supply would be short ~1.5M bbl/day and prices would be dramatically higher" .. whats the point of that statement? Is there an imminent danger of US supply being discontinued? I could claim "Without Saudi Arabia, supply would be short ~10M barrels" and even that would be a slightly more relevant statement.
    Aug 29 04:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Still Trading At Elevated Levels [View article]
    Dear Mr. Stewart, can you please elaborate? From reading your article, I can see only one line of reasoning: US demand is rising because there is global supply disruption.

    Frankly, I don't understand the line of reasoning here at all.
    Aug 14 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Too Cheap To Ignore? [View article]
    Hmm.. perhaps we are talking about different time frames of reference. I am talking about the decline from $700 to its current price, and how and AAPL may mark a stop to its decline (a bottom).

    Ofcourse this depends on fundamentals, but also on technicals to a large extent. If AAPL is still the most-written-about of stocks I know, and 9 of 10 writers are bullish, many with actual positions in the stock, then I don't think there is much dry powder left to buy it strongly and reverse a decline.

    Individual stocks, especially ones so large and so fervently owned and followed like AAPL, can most definitely have flushouts and capitulations. They happen all the time.

    So here, I will throw out a prediction, AAPL will not "bottom" and mark a stop to its current multi-month slide till the market itself has a correction and bottoms. In other words, the next overall market correction will see more liquidation in AAPL, which *may* finally lead to AAPL and and the market both bouncing off together.

    And no, I haven't shorted AAPL now or ever before. Just responding to investor behavior I see around me :-)
    Mar 7 08:24 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Too Cheap To Ignore? [View article]
    Can you elaborate? Didn't understand what your reply comment meant.
    Mar 7 07:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Too Cheap To Ignore? [View article]
    I don't really have a comment on whether AAPL is fundamentally cheap. But I just don't see the "extreme pessimism" that people think there is; falling stock price doesn't equal pessimism.

    I have subscribed to receive emails about new articles being published on SA for 5 different stocks, and AAPL by far generates the biggest flurry of new articles, 90% of whom are bullish.

    This doesn't mean AAPL won't go up on fundamental strength, just that most people are still betting on the up side. I don't yet see a flush of the longs that typically marks a bottom.
    Mar 7 07:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Brent crude oil, despite today's blip, is moving inexorably toward $120/bbl, the point where fears of demand destruction bubble to the surface, according to Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen. Keith Schaefer, editor of Oil & Gas Investments Bulletin, explains why he thinks the price gap between Brent and WTI will widen further this year as U.S. crude prices tank. [View news story]
    This is funny. Why do demand destruction fears "bubble to the surface" at $120? Do you think motorists around the world are glued to their screens watching Brent futures prices, just waiting to cut back on their fuel usage as soon as we hit $120?

    The fact that US gasoline prices are now higher than when an all-time-high was reached for Brent or WTI ($147/bl in 2008), and that automotive and alternative technologies have had 5 more years to catch up since, means that demand destruction is already ongoing rapidly. I look forward to down-revisions of forecasts calling for a slight increase in US oil usage in 2013; we will instead see faster demand destruction than the ~250kbl/day we saw in each of the last two years.
    Feb 11 11:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Even as the price of benchmark Brent crude surges to nine-month highs above $118/bbl, OPEC's Persian Gulf members are not inclined to increase production to help ease prices. In fact, Platt's says the Saudis cut production again in January. But if Brent hits $120, thoughts of demand erosion might start to creep in; with Europe's economy still on its sick bed, higher oil prices could prove too much to bear. [View news story]
    Demand destruction is already well underway. Prepare for a "surprise" reduction in US bbl/day usage, below IEA nad EIA forecasts.
    Feb 8 10:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel In Mobile: Large R&D Makes Victory Inevitable [View article]
    CPU R&D cannot be spread accross families. Processors for Servers, PCs and Mobile are very different. Mobile processors are built differently from ground up - different foundry process, power supply, efficiency mechanisms. R&D can be shared to the same extent that Toyota can share research between a Prius and a Tundra truck. Again, I would like to point out that Intel would need a huge burst of innovation to jump two generations ahead of existing players just to peel off OEM customers.
    Feb 7 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel In Mobile: Large R&D Makes Victory Inevitable [View article]
    I will highlight some reasons why optimism about Intel and mobile is misplaced:

    1. Software: Yes the author cites software as a reason Intel might succeed, but I see the opposite. Qcom etc entrenched companies which have relationships with major mobile OEMS spanning several generations. It takes a huge commitment of platform software design resources to make these OEMs change suppliers. Intel would have to come up with designs are two generations ahead of Qcom to peel off any customers.

    2. R&D costs don't correlate to success. Not even close. Yahoo was an internet behemoth with a well-established search engine when Google was just a fledgling company. AMD was able to clean Intel's clock with 1/18th the R&D budget back in 2004-2006 as Intel stumbled on high power consumption Pentium designs. Qcom and Intel have the same market cap. Qcom has the luxury of being an entrenched mobile-only player without any manufacturing capacity overhang, Intel has to spread its R&D dollars between foundry process, PC microprocessors and then Mobile.
    3. INTC is indeed very late to the party. There is consolidation going on in the space, and even Qcom is scrambling to keep designs as the big two OEMs talk about making their own apps processors and DSPs.
    Feb 6 06:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • "Not buying health insurance is not an activity," says Richard Epstein on Scotus blog of the Supreme Court opinion on the individual mandate. "I am not aware of any tax imposed on individuals for not buying gasoline and not earning income, or not taking a bath or not working in a home office." To allow it to stand as a tax is absurd, Epstein thunders.  [View news story]
    If this law is really so self-paying and will just transfer the cost of uninsured from one party to another, then why does government need to generate so much revenue by increasing investment income tax? I would think that would be the first question debated on a site called "Seeking Alpha". They are chipping away a little more of your hard earned Alpha.
    Jun 28 07:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook's (FB) poor IPO showing and the resulting fallout "will hurt the funding market for earlier stage startups," warns Paul Graham, co-founder of major startup incubator Y-Combinator. Graham expects many hot startups will have to accept funding rounds with lower valuations than the ones granted in prior rounds. He's far from alone in expressing such concerns.  [View news story]
    Wow, thats tragic. 21yr old kids will no longer get $1B valuations for building a little applets that push social-media polygons around on a smartphone. The horror!!
    Jun 5 11:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economy In Transition: Be Careful [View article]
    OK. I have now done more than an "initial consideration", and the idea sounds even better!

    1. As an investor, I would love to buy a house with HPIM and leverage the mortgage/rental income difference that exists in many markets now.

    2. This greatly limits profits/losses incurred by the home buyer due to price swings. By removing the speculative "investment" piece from home purchase, HPIM can enable home buyers to get all the advantages of home ownership vs renting while not taking on a large gamble. If combined with technology-induced lowering of buying/selling costs it would enable many people to own vs rent even if they are unsure of their medium-term plans. In a changing economy that is a big plus. Essentially the decision-making process becomes similar to buying vs renting a car, with all the attendant efficiency of the latter.
    Apr 20 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economy In Transition: Be Careful [View article]
    Thank you Inflation Trader, I had not heard of HPIMs. From reading your views and upon my initial consideration of it, it does sound like a good idea.

    Besides getting some buyers off the sidelines, it would make loans with less than 20% downpayment from buyers possible (with equally attractive loan terms) as there is less risk due to index-adjustment. That enables many more buyers as well.

    I look forward to more commentary from you on HPIMs. They really do sound like a better idea to me, than any of the programs that the white house has put forward thus far.
    Apr 20 10:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • File under perhaps the less I know, the better: Starbucks (SBUX -1.1%) draws fire from vegans over how it puts the red into its Strawberry Frappuccinos. In January, the company moved to using crushed up cochineal beetles - instead of artificial flavoring - with a goal of removing unnatural ingredients. Despite the shock value, the bugging-up of food products is common practice and government-approved.  [View news story]
    Lawsuit city. McDonalds was sued successfully for having animal fat in its fries and hash browns without disclosing.
    Apr 19 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The SEC approved Egan-Jones as a credit-rating agency in 2007, but sources say regulators had serious concerns about the firm's internal procedures and staffing levels. Egan-Jones sparked a sell-off in November of Jefferies Group's shares after downgrading the company in a report that may have contained inaccuracies.  [View news story]
    Regardless of how sloppy Egan Jones' procedures were, I find it extremely troubling that retaliation was so blatant and swift after they downgraded US. That must mean the big three are also being muzzled.
    Apr 19 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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