BillCust

19 Comments

    • MBIA vs. The Evil Short Sellers [view article]
      OSTK anyone? Feb 14 01:40 PM
    • Fannie Mae's Decline Is Disheartening [view article]
      Eddy, you there?
      You see what I mean?

      Lots to learn, friend.       Nov 20 10:23 AM
    • Fannie Mae's Decline Is Disheartening [view article]
      Eddy, think outside the box just for a little while. The dumbass running the book in Fannie Mae has 45 basis points capital on credit portfolio heading into a COLLAPSE in the housing markets of CA, FL, NV, AZ. To top that off , the spread of FNM debt to the mortgages are shrinking and that's GONNA CRIPM Q4 numbers in REAL TERM, not just unrealized Fair value crap.

      The damage IS already in. It's just waiting to be reported. You wait and see FRE report tomorrow which will show an utter collapse.       Nov 19 02:24 PM
    • Fannie Mae's Decline Is Disheartening [view article]
      What you said is very ignorant of the fact that Fannie Mae LEVERAGED 250x on credit and 40x on interest rate. Credit itself is leveraged 10-20x to house prices assuming 5%-10% down.

      There are already talks in the Bush gov't about "Conservatorship&... Now you go ahead and dig what it means cuz I sure as hell know you just don't have a skin enough in this game, Jr.

      Thanks to people like you I will continue to make big money. Comparing $ earnings to stock price? You are funny sir.       Nov 19 09:14 AM
    • When Will Citi Get it Right? [view article]
      Thanks to people like these I made a lot of money. Keep on chugging the kool-aid friend. Nov 01 03:53 PM
    • Proposal to Correct Resource Misallocation in the Housing/Lending Sector [view article]
      Gibberish aside, the difficulty on its implementation, as Malkiel failed to explain, would be on preventing fraud. In other words, how can all the parties (bank/lender, borrower, marginal home buyers, gov't) somehow not further distort reality - so how would you get their interest aligned?

      The borrower wants the highest possible selling price, ok. The banks too. The government is neutralized in your scheme by legislation. And the rest of the power balance is the marginal home buyer, who wants the lowest possible price. It could theoretically work if this balance holds. Chances are, they don't - or they still take more than one year, as you said, to balance themselves out. Plenty of risk in your strategy but I trust your logic.       Oct 23 11:19 AM
    • Baidu's $400 Target Reminiscent of Dot.com Valuation [view article]
      Yeah, I hear you. Someone I know is almost broke now going against my advice not to short CPSL, heheh. The guy said a PE of 700 was bad. Well, I said, so were 100, 200, 400, and 600 - for a steel mill no less. He didn't get my drift unfortunately. Oct 03 12:39 PM
    • Understanding Contrarianism and Bubbles [view article]
      It's not clear how bubble starts though, although financing does help carry the weight for a while.

      Having lived through several, here is my conclusion:

      * Bubble cannot be engineered. Encouraging borrowing by itself is not enough.

      * Bubble starts randomly, and on random subjects. Every single one of them almost started right out of a joke, a bet gone awry, or some rather menial thing. Just like the Boogeyman.

      * Bubble cannot be stopped. Once that random sparks ignites the barrel, then nothing can stop it until the fuel runs out. Now part of that fuel can be easy financing, but I have seen many that isn't.

      Someone should start a formal study of bubble and incorporate that into asset pricing theory.       Sep 27 11:05 AM
    • Chicago Fed National Activity Index Shows Subpar Growth [view article]
      CFNAI uses 85 indices. I think this is too complex and the effect/weight of each indices changes through time, conditional on the information most relevant of that time. For now, you can drop 84 of the indices and use one instead, the one for housing. Sep 26 12:03 AM
    • Currency Analysts Expect Dollar To Strengthen [view article]
      Yeah, otherwise u may have caught a few lies and rumor with bogus chart that I posted last night around the message boards, bud. Sep 20 04:48 PM
    • Miracle: Bush To Part The Bankrupt Sea [view article]
      So assuming 150k loan balance, about 80k people will be 12 Billion US$ of new mortgages per annum. The troubled portion of the subprime (with high LTV and at least 50% payment increase) within a year is 500 Billion US$.

      Plus the usual finelining like no 95LTV for this and that borrower, definitely only owner occ- and primary home, etc will be enough to just guarantee that less than the meager $12 B "bailout" will be deployable. Plus the other filter that they're likely to use: geography , loan limit, and income, which will cut out the FL, CA, NV, MA, and AZ loans making up 90+% of the blowups right now.

      This Horowitz guy isn't looking out for his investors.       Aug 31 02:52 PM
    • Shanghai 2007 vs. Nasdaq 2000 -- Deja Vu? [view article]
      This is more tricky than you say! Let's say you have a time machine back to Dec 1999. The new year's gala's on big time and Nasdaq was at its peak. But the current peak is 7,000, not 5,000.

      For some reason history changed and the Chinese went to buy tech stocks instead of bonds, adding to the chaos bubble. What will you do? Sell everything cuz in your "universe" it was supposed to be 5,000 going down to 1,500?

      But then you realize this is a parallel universe. The psych limit is 10,000 and you may well get burned if it does go there before turning to say, 1,500, like your original universe?

      Real supply and demand is of course, dictated by Real economics, I agree. But kindly take a look at Chinese history back 3,000 years and see if you can find excesses, tragedy, accomplishments, or unusual activities that are NOT universe-boggling when they occured in China.       Aug 28 10:44 AM
    • Bank of America Invests $2B in Countrywide: Who Wins? [view article]
      In my opinion BAC will most likely make very little money in return for a sound guarantee of losing none of its previous investments with Cwide. The 30% capacity is about right: I calculated that at 30% current rate of "burn" that combined 13B might last them 4 weeks. The question is since they have 65,000 people would they rather keep 100% resources for 30% utilization, or a really massive workforce adjustment is in the works? Keep in mind the US adds a net 100k job monthly these days, so that number if done in a day is huge. One last thing, don't you all see the irony of it all? Cwide gets a subprime loan from BAC. Hahahaha. Aug 23 10:13 AM
    • Freddie Mac To Purchase More Alt-A Loans From Lenders [view article]
      Read carefully. The "credit box", or the stuffs they would like to accept as Alt-A just got immensely tighter. This is a "do not enter" sign disguised as a welcome mat. Just to give you an idea, 80% of the stuffs that banks delivered to them would get cut and rejected for funding. The herd? Well, there's cow Fannie and cow Freddie. You'd get trampled thinking they do some bailing out. Aug 15 04:01 PM
    • Why I'm Thinking Like Eddie Lampert [view article]
      I think Eddie Lampert shouldn't think like himself and thus the problem is going to be circular with you all who like thinking like him. The direction is pretty sure downwards tho. Aug 15 03:24 PM
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