BillCust's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/74705/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/64552-mbia-vs-the-evil-short-sellers?source=feed#comment-116316 116316 Thu, 14 Feb 2008 13:40:52 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/54559-fannie-mae-s-decline-is-disheartening?source=feed#comment-102492 102492 You see what I mean?

Lots to learn, friend.]]> Tue, 20 Nov 2007 10:23:26 -0500 You see what I mean?

Lots to learn, friend.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/54559-fannie-mae-s-decline-is-disheartening?source=feed#comment-102366 102366
The damage IS already in. It's just waiting to be reported. You wait and see FRE report tomorrow which will show an utter collapse.]]> Mon, 19 Nov 2007 14:24:55 -0500
The damage IS already in. It's just waiting to be reported. You wait and see FRE report tomorrow which will show an utter collapse.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/54559-fannie-mae-s-decline-is-disheartening?source=feed#comment-102308 102308
There are already talks in the Bush gov't about "Conservatorship". Now you go ahead and dig what it means cuz I sure as hell know you just don't have a skin enough in this game, Jr.

Thanks to people like you I will continue to make big money. Comparing $ earnings to stock price? You are funny sir.]]> Mon, 19 Nov 2007 09:14:27 -0500
There are already talks in the Bush gov't about "Conservatorship". Now you go ahead and dig what it means cuz I sure as hell know you just don't have a skin enough in this game, Jr.

Thanks to people like you I will continue to make big money. Comparing $ earnings to stock price? You are funny sir.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/52411-when-will-citi-get-it-right?source=feed#comment-100580 100580 Thu, 01 Nov 2007 15:53:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/50949-proposal-to-correct-resource-misallocation-in-the-housing-lending-sector?source=feed#comment-99447 99447
The borrower wants the highest possible selling price, ok. The banks too. The government is neutralized in your scheme by legislation. And the rest of the power balance is the marginal home buyer, who wants the lowest possible price. It could theoretically work if this balance holds. Chances are, they don't - or they still take more than one year, as you said, to balance themselves out. Plenty of risk in your strategy but I trust your logic.]]> Tue, 23 Oct 2007 11:19:51 -0400
The borrower wants the highest possible selling price, ok. The banks too. The government is neutralized in your scheme by legislation. And the rest of the power balance is the marginal home buyer, who wants the lowest possible price. It could theoretically work if this balance holds. Chances are, they don't - or they still take more than one year, as you said, to balance themselves out. Plenty of risk in your strategy but I trust your logic.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/48824-baidu-s-400-target-reminiscent-of-dot-com-valuation?source=feed#comment-97571 97571 Wed, 03 Oct 2007 12:39:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/48311-understanding-contrarianism-and-bubbles?source=feed#comment-96994 96994
Having lived through several, here is my conclusion:

* Bubble cannot be engineered. Encouraging borrowing by itself is not enough.

* Bubble starts randomly, and on random subjects. Every single one of them almost started right out of a joke, a bet gone awry, or some rather menial thing. Just like the Boogeyman.

* Bubble cannot be stopped. Once that random sparks ignites the barrel, then nothing can stop it until the fuel runs out. Now part of that fuel can be easy financing, but I have seen many that isn't.

Someone should start a formal study of bubble and incorporate that into asset pricing theory.]]> Thu, 27 Sep 2007 11:05:42 -0400
Having lived through several, here is my conclusion:

* Bubble cannot be engineered. Encouraging borrowing by itself is not enough.

* Bubble starts randomly, and on random subjects. Every single one of them almost started right out of a joke, a bet gone awry, or some rather menial thing. Just like the Boogeyman.

* Bubble cannot be stopped. Once that random sparks ignites the barrel, then nothing can stop it until the fuel runs out. Now part of that fuel can be easy financing, but I have seen many that isn't.

Someone should start a formal study of bubble and incorporate that into asset pricing theory.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/48237-chicago-fed-national-activity-index-shows-subpar-growth?source=feed#comment-96878 96878 Wed, 26 Sep 2007 00:03:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/47816-currency-analysts-expect-dollar-to-strengthen?source=feed#comment-96499 96499 Thu, 20 Sep 2007 16:48:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/46169-miracle-bush-to-part-the-bankrupt-sea?source=feed#comment-94894 94894
Plus the usual finelining like no 95LTV for this and that borrower, definitely only owner occ- and primary home, etc will be enough to just guarantee that less than the meager $12 B "bailout" will be deployable. Plus the other filter that they're likely to use: geography , loan limit, and income, which will cut out the FL, CA, NV, MA, and AZ loans making up 90+% of the blowups right now.

This Horowitz guy isn't looking out for his investors.]]> Fri, 31 Aug 2007 14:52:59 -0400
Plus the usual finelining like no 95LTV for this and that borrower, definitely only owner occ- and primary home, etc will be enough to just guarantee that less than the meager $12 B "bailout" will be deployable. Plus the other filter that they're likely to use: geography , loan limit, and income, which will cut out the FL, CA, NV, MA, and AZ loans making up 90+% of the blowups right now.

This Horowitz guy isn't looking out for his investors.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/45707-shanghai-2007-vs-nasdaq-2000-deja-vu?source=feed#comment-94650 94650
For some reason history changed and the Chinese went to buy tech stocks instead of bonds, adding to the chaos bubble. What will you do? Sell everything cuz in your "universe" it was supposed to be 5,000 going down to 1,500?

But then you realize this is a parallel universe. The psych limit is 10,000 and you may well get burned if it does go there before turning to say, 1,500, like your original universe?

Real supply and demand is of course, dictated by Real economics, I agree. But kindly take a look at Chinese history back 3,000 years and see if you can find excesses, tragedy, accomplishments, or unusual activities that are NOT universe-boggling when they occured in China.]]> Tue, 28 Aug 2007 10:44:08 -0400
For some reason history changed and the Chinese went to buy tech stocks instead of bonds, adding to the chaos bubble. What will you do? Sell everything cuz in your "universe" it was supposed to be 5,000 going down to 1,500?

But then you realize this is a parallel universe. The psych limit is 10,000 and you may well get burned if it does go there before turning to say, 1,500, like your original universe?

Real supply and demand is of course, dictated by Real economics, I agree. But kindly take a look at Chinese history back 3,000 years and see if you can find excesses, tragedy, accomplishments, or unusual activities that are NOT universe-boggling when they occured in China.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/45424-bank-of-america-invests-2b-in-countrywide-who-wins?source=feed#comment-94398 94398 Thu, 23 Aug 2007 10:13:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/44590-freddie-mac-to-purchase-more-alt-a-loans-from-lenders?source=feed#comment-93747 93747 Wed, 15 Aug 2007 16:01:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/44592-why-i-m-thinking-like-eddie-lampert?source=feed#comment-93749 93749 Wed, 15 Aug 2007 15:24:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/36473-new-home-sales-up-but-beware-double-digit-monthly-gains?source=feed#comment-86951 86951 Thu, 24 May 2007 16:09:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/34911-consumer-slowdown-retail-conference-calls-say-not-yet?source=feed#comment-85753 85753 the timing this time is unique, but not the outcome.

Looks to me that the spending lagged a bit this time relative to "wealth" and "credit". The mentality was accustomed to available credit and non-production wealth creation (read: home value). But consumption always respond to the asset side of consumer balance sheet in a big way, although predicting the fluctuation in the asset value is a hard thing to do.

But the most recent data (consumer credit, home equity withdrawal $, and just the trade "dispersion" across stocks of the same industry - esp. if there is buyout rumors) suggests that the lag is not infinite from here on. :)]]> Tue, 08 May 2007 17:11:31 -0400 the timing this time is unique, but not the outcome.

Looks to me that the spending lagged a bit this time relative to "wealth" and "credit". The mentality was accustomed to available credit and non-production wealth creation (read: home value). But consumption always respond to the asset side of consumer balance sheet in a big way, although predicting the fluctuation in the asset value is a hard thing to do.

But the most recent data (consumer credit, home equity withdrawal $, and just the trade "dispersion" across stocks of the same industry - esp. if there is buyout rumors) suggests that the lag is not infinite from here on. :)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/32198-yen-carry-trade-predicting-a-july-end?source=feed#comment-84805 84805 The question is then how much is too much? Consider this:
Japan is an actual country with actual people. They don't all trade the yen to invest in Australian$ or Brazilian bond, or Chinese stocks. They need yen to buy food, housing, cars, and the good things in life. A real crisis can happen when speculative yen demand interferes with the real economy demand of yen.

Take the M2 supply: deposit, cash, and quasi money - that number is 700 Trillion Yen, or 6 Trillion US$, or 6000 billion US$. A rule of thumb would suggest that a crisis could be in the making if the business/public suddenly compete with speculators to get Yen!

Currently we are at about 10-15% Yen money supply in terms of the amount being speculated! Common sense suggests to me that there is beginning to be a competition of demand for yen not just among speculators but business as well. I would say if we ever reached 100% of the money being loaned for speculation, there will be serious consequences in terms of regional monetary stabilities.

It's up to the Japanese government to determine whether there should be a stampede today or a monumental stampede later.]]> Mon, 23 Apr 2007 23:04:29 -0400 The question is then how much is too much? Consider this:
Japan is an actual country with actual people. They don't all trade the yen to invest in Australian$ or Brazilian bond, or Chinese stocks. They need yen to buy food, housing, cars, and the good things in life. A real crisis can happen when speculative yen demand interferes with the real economy demand of yen.

Take the M2 supply: deposit, cash, and quasi money - that number is 700 Trillion Yen, or 6 Trillion US$, or 6000 billion US$. A rule of thumb would suggest that a crisis could be in the making if the business/public suddenly compete with speculators to get Yen!

Currently we are at about 10-15% Yen money supply in terms of the amount being speculated! Common sense suggests to me that there is beginning to be a competition of demand for yen not just among speculators but business as well. I would say if we ever reached 100% of the money being loaned for speculation, there will be serious consequences in terms of regional monetary stabilities.

It's up to the Japanese government to determine whether there should be a stampede today or a monumental stampede later.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/32923-what-would-create-a-repeat-of-1973?source=feed#comment-84804 84804 The question is then how much is too much? Consider this:
Japan is an actual country with actual people. They don't all trade the yen to invest in Australian$ or Brazilian bond, or Chinese stocks. They need yen to buy food, housing, cars, and the good things in life. A real crisis can happen when speculative yen demand interferes with the real economy demand of yen.

Take the M2 supply: deposit, cash, and quasi money - that number is 700 Trillion Yen, or 6 Trillion US$, or 6000 billion US$. A rule of thumb would suggest that a crisis could be in the making if the business/public suddenly compete with speculators to get Yen!

Currently we are at about 10-15% Yen money supply in terms of the amount being speculated! Common sense suggests to me that there is beginning to be a competition of demand for yen not just among speculators but business as well. I would say if we ever reached 100% of the money being loaned for speculation, there will be serious consequences in terms of regional monetary stabilities.

It's up to the Japanese government to determine whether there should be a stampede today or a monumental stampede later.]]> Mon, 23 Apr 2007 23:01:08 -0400 The question is then how much is too much? Consider this:
Japan is an actual country with actual people. They don't all trade the yen to invest in Australian$ or Brazilian bond, or Chinese stocks. They need yen to buy food, housing, cars, and the good things in life. A real crisis can happen when speculative yen demand interferes with the real economy demand of yen.

Take the M2 supply: deposit, cash, and quasi money - that number is 700 Trillion Yen, or 6 Trillion US$, or 6000 billion US$. A rule of thumb would suggest that a crisis could be in the making if the business/public suddenly compete with speculators to get Yen!

Currently we are at about 10-15% Yen money supply in terms of the amount being speculated! Common sense suggests to me that there is beginning to be a competition of demand for yen not just among speculators but business as well. I would say if we ever reached 100% of the money being loaned for speculation, there will be serious consequences in terms of regional monetary stabilities.

It's up to the Japanese government to determine whether there should be a stampede today or a monumental stampede later.]]>