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David J Cohen

David J Cohen
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  • Five Ways the Verizon iPhone Will Change the Mobile Landscape [View article]
    Quoting information from a blatantly biased source like apple insider does very little to convince anyone of the original argument.

    Anecdotally, I have used both Droid and iPhone, and see little difference in phone hardware or software. I prefer my current Droid X, but that is mostly due to ATT being a total failure as a carrier. I currently have Verizon and receive vastly superior performance than ATT, both in phone and data service.

    Verizon as a company spends more capital on their network than anyone, and cares more about quality of service, and customer service. People notice this, and are switching to Verizon; only the 2 year lock downs have kept the damage down at ATT. The iPhone on VZ will only accelerate this process.

    Droid sales will likely drop temporarily, but that doesn't matter much to GOOG stock, 90% of their revenue has nothing to do with the mobile space. I suppose it could hurt some of the Droid manufacturers, but honestly, the smartphone space is big enough for multiple players.
    Jan 10, 2011. 05:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Optimistic Analysis Illustrates What's Wrong With Typical Investment Approach [View article]
    Google, Microsoft and Amazon all have larger data center capacity than Apple that much is clear. Apple is playing catch-up, which is why they are building such a large center. You think the others aren't building Data centers as well? In particular Google is very secretive about it's data centers so hard numbers about capacity are hard to come by. If someone has exact numbers I'd love to see them.

    I think I am not alone in asking the question. What is Apple doing with it's cash? It is a perfectly valid question to ask, and somewhat suspect of you to only make jokes in response. Many other investors have discussed this issue. Building data centers is all well and good, but represents a tiny fraction of available capital.

    Speaking of Steve Jobs, is any company more at risk of a significant drop if, heaven forbid, he falls ill again. The loss of their CEO would be catastrophic to apple stock, and Jobs has had significant health problems in the past. I hope he stays healthy, but it is a risk, albeit low probability.
    Jan 4, 2011. 03:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Optimistic Analysis Illustrates What's Wrong With Typical Investment Approach [View article]
    That article only considers ATT and Verizon. Clearly there are other carriers, who currently can only offer their customers Android phones. Also I do not recognize the source of that data, or the website, making me slightly suspicious.

    The Verizon iPhone is the best known rumor on wall st. It is totally priced in, and assumed in the analyst estimates.

    I dunno guys, I keep hearing about things that are all in the past. Things that are already priced in. It would take significant earnings beats, new products... something that isn't already priced into Apple's stock.

    Someone above mentioned that they think apple will sell 200 million iPads in one year. That is absurd. That is the type of silly estimates that I am arguing against.

    I should repeat, I think Apple can go up. I think they will equal the Nasdaq's performance, but not outperform, over 2011. I wouldn't even consider shorting the stock. Judging by the reactions around here it is heresy to not put an 'ultra conviction buy now' analysis out there.
    Jan 4, 2011. 02:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Optimistic Analysis Illustrates What's Wrong With Typical Investment Approach [View article]
    You kidding me? I don't like Microsoft. Don't put words in my mouth pal. Oh, and nice job as the grammar police, I have better things to do than watch my apostrophe usage.

    Many independent reviews of the iPhone vs the better Droid smartphones rate them the same.

    Market share doesn't lie. If Droid's are so bad... why are so many sold? According to Gartner, as of Q3, Symbian 36.6%, Android 25.5%, iOS 16.7%, Rimm 14.8%. Also Apple market share dropped from 2009 to 2010.

    Hey, if I were an Apple shareholder I'd be cheer-leading and pumping the stock frantically too, since it has stopped outperforming.
    Jan 4, 2011. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Optimistic Analysis Illustrates What's Wrong With Typical Investment Approach [View article]
    On another issue. Everyone loves to talk about Apple's cash pile and how great that is. Well thats fine... assuming Apple actually is doing something with their cash. Oh wait, they are doing nothing with that money. If I were a shareholder (I'm not) I would be very upset with a company which was not putting such a vast amount of cash to work.

    Pay a dividend, make a major acquisition (Netflix maybe?), do something! I did hear that they build a new data center. Yeah, I'm not terribly impressed, tech companies like goog, msft, and amzn have data centers falling out their pockets these days.

    Look at Google, they have a lot of cash too, but they are using it. They tried to spend 6 billion on Groupon, but got spurned. They recognized the value of good employees to a tech company and increased salaries significantly. They bought out the building they used to rent in New York (at a significant discount to its long term value).

    Apple is doing nothing we can see. Steve Jobs is on record saying something vague like 'strategic opportunities'. Well, get cracking on that.
    Jan 4, 2011. 09:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Optimistic Analysis Illustrates What's Wrong With Typical Investment Approach [View article]
    Lesson learned, never say anything but nice rosy things in the presence of the apple faithful.

    Seriously though, American's are really simple. Presented with two nearly identical products, which do they buy? The cheaper one. I have a Droid X right here, and I've used iPhones. There is virtually no difference. A rigorous technical analysis of the two devices actually shows the droid is better.

    Just as there is little fundamental difference between PC and Mac. At least not to the largely tech deaf public, who don't notice little details. They notice the price tag.

    Profit side apple is dominating, yes. That is priced into the stock already though. Massive growth estimates are priced in. optimistic forecasts are priced in. In fact what has apple stock done lately? Barely been able to keep up with the overall nasdaq.

    Apple stock can go up, but it will not outperform the larger index in any serious way. I certainly wouldn't short it either, sentiment is too high.

    Consider this though, given the obvious sentiment present in the stock (read these comments!) what happens if / when apple misses an earnings report? I have this entertaining image of a train going off a cliff in my head.
    Jan 4, 2011. 09:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Optimistic Analysis Illustrates What's Wrong With Typical Investment Approach [View article]
    These forward ipad / iphone sales estimates are insane. Android is eating marketshare very rapidly in the phone space, and has already passed apple. The same thing will happen even more rapidly in the tablet space because apple refuses to compete on price.

    Look back to the PC vs Mac war long ago. Today its Android vs iOS. Android will win.

    Apple can only succeed and reach these insane price targets if A) they innovate something truly new or B) do something stupendously awesome with their horde of cash.
    Jan 3, 2011. 05:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Service Restaurants Poised for Even Quicker Decline [View article]
    Let's see, an individual bill at Chipotle is about 10 dollars, who doesn't order a soda these days? So that works out to roughly 43 customers per hour on average through a 12 hour day. Seems reasonable to me.

    The stores I've been too have a line... constantly. Doesn't matter what time of day, there is a line. One I went too in Ft Lauderdale while on vacation had 25 people in line, at 2 pm on a Wednesday afternoon. Every seat in the restaurant was taken. This was with about 8 employees working to move the line as quick as they could (and they kept that line moving). That store easily served over 100 people in the half hour I was there. Lot's of people did take out.

    The popularity of these places is staggering.
    Jan 1, 2011. 07:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Service Restaurants Poised for Even Quicker Decline [View article]
    I have difficulty believing that current sky high Ag commodity prices will hold through 2011.

    The reason is simple. Why are prices so high? Supply shortages, due to a string of disappointing crops across the world for the past year. Why did the crops fail? Weather.

    Now weather is truly random. What is the probability that weather will be so terrible for farming again next year? Kinda low, there are a lot more possible outcomes that produce better weather, and better crops next year.

    Also farmer earned impressive profits this year, which they can reinvest in the form of farm equipment, fertilizer, and higher quality seed. This supports the potential for greatly increased supply next year, compared to 2010.

    That said, it will likely take some time for ag prices to start to drop. At minimum I would expect them to remain elevated through winter and quite possibly well into spring.

    Unfortunately for CMG, the technicals have clearly broken down, and it's like trying to catch a falling knife now. Clearly until the technicals look better, CMG has to be avoided on the long side, and remains a potential short for the aggressive trader.

    I plan to wait for a clear bottom on CMG, then buy in as a longer term investment. I think in the multi year sense, they will be a big success.
    Dec 31, 2010. 03:18 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil ETF vs. Oil Stocks? No Real Choice for Individual Investors [View article]
    See when I trade UCO (double oil bull) I don't expect double return on oil. I understand the etf and it's real performance compared to oil.

    Just because a fund says it does something doesn't mean it will do that. Any investor should trade based on real performance, not some fantasy.
    Dec 28, 2010. 09:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil ETF vs. Oil Stocks? No Real Choice for Individual Investors [View article]
    For shorter term trades also consider UCO. It is a double leveraged bull etf that tries to track oil.
    Dec 27, 2010. 01:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pre-Holiday Market Outlook: Mixed Bag of Signals, More Risk Than Reward [View article]
    See I don't believe the whole 'muni and states will default in droves, run for the hills' storyline. Why? Federal bailouts of the states and munis will happen before the damage piles up too much. How can the federal government not bail them out after helping wall street and the auto industry?

    In any case, what near term catalyst is there for a catastrophic crash? US based debt issues will not come to a head anytime in the next few months. We can kick the can down the road for years more. Europe is a mess but likely stable for a quarter or two. Asia is perhaps tightening, but generally doing well. The US economy is clearly improving. Our banks are sitting on very conservative balance sheets. The Stock market needs a reason to crash.

    If the 'omen' isn't intended to be a short term indicator... then I'd say it is useless. If the prediction is for sometime in the next year, then what good is it? Markets crash periodically, that is normal and expected. The trick is to know when.

    Think of it this way. If someone says, every day, 'the markets will crash!', eventually, if they keep saying it, they will be right. If the message doesn't include specific timing, it doesn't help a trader like me. I'm certainly not going defensive on my portfolio for an indeterminate length of time, sacrificing profits along the way. Keeping tight stops on your positions is just good practice, everyone should do that.
    Dec 20, 2010. 03:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pre-Holiday Market Outlook: Mixed Bag of Signals, More Risk Than Reward [View article]
    Perhaps someone can correct me, but my understanding was that last weeks 'omen' was a false signal. This was because most of the 52 week lows were not actually stocks. They were exotic etfs, largely bond related. Clearly most etfs should not be considered when looking for this sort of technical signal. At minimum bond etfs, and leveraged etfs should be ignored.
    Dec 20, 2010. 09:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bulls have seized momentum, but Richard Suttmeier sees little upside now, with "a lot of good news priced in" - QE2, the GOP midterm victory, the tax-cut extension. "All the bullish events are there," with 2011 no better than a "trading-range year." He would buy undervalued names CSCO and BBY, and sell overvalued stocks like F, TRW and FWLT.  [View news story]
    F is overvalued? oh really? PE Multiples of 9.4 are overvalued now?

    And he suggests buying two stocks which just got hammered after an earnings report (CSCO, BBY)? And both have higher PE multiples than ford.

    Somehow I doubt this guy makes much money.
    Dec 17, 2010. 09:02 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Jim Chanos Short Netflix? [View article]
    NFLX now has machines stuffing envelopes, and in any case is moving more revenue to streaming. Now the PE multiple is still too rich in my opinion, but let's get the facts straight at least. I have no position long or short the stock.
    Dec 16, 2010. 10:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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