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David J Cohen

David J Cohen
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  • Black Friday Disappoints [View article]
    Perhaps some thought before giving out the doom and gloom.

    Shoppertrac watchs MALL traffic. It does not account for online retail, which anyone paying attention will know is where the vast bulk of growth is occurring. More and more consumers shop online. More and more ignore malls and department stores.

    Also this doesn't count for vastly increased revenues on Thursday, which is unprecedented.

    The more accurate sales figures released on Tuesday will prove me right, holiday sales are BOOMING.
    Nov 28, 2010. 06:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will We Have a Merry Christmas? [View article]
    In Central PA, the stores seem quite crowded lately. There have been huge amounts of traffic on the roads with many retail stores.

    An upscale supermarket called Wegman's (sorta like Whole Foods, but local, and not organic only) has been particularly busy, with massive sales since this branch opened a year ago. It has even driven one other local supermarket out of business.

    All the usual stores seem to be doing well, Best Buy, Costco, even Wal-mart. However the local Borders, and Barnes and Noble, look quite empty.
    Nov 19, 2010. 08:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's the Oil Imports, Stupid! [View article]
    So the author wants us to both switch to using Natural Gas transportation (a non-existent technology), which would drastically increase Nat Gas demand... while at the same time limiting Hydraulic Fracturing... which would drastically decrease supply. Basic economics anyone?

    I can agree though on going long oil companies though, once the recent correction is over.
    Nov 17, 2010. 07:44 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nov. Empire State Survey: Manufacturing -11.14 vs. 13 expected, 15.73 prior. Employment 9.09 vs. 21.67 prior. New orders -24.38 vs. 12.9 prior. Prices -2.6 vs. 8.33 prior.  [View news story]
    New York is not exactly our center of manufacturing... and the state government is terrible, not a business friendly environment. It doesn't reflect manufacturing across the US. I've always thought this survey got too much attention.
    Nov 15, 2010. 08:42 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why the Market Is Not a Forward Looking Indicator [View article]
    We all have a choice: try to stand in the way of the Fed or jump on board and profit from the ride. I'll take the latter.

    Most commodities other than gold have fundamental supply and demand causes for their increase. QE may help amplify that, but trying to blame QE entirely for commodities price increases is foolish.

    Just to pick cotton, demand is soaring due to foreign growth. At the same time many producers stopped growing cotton, combined with a disappointing crop in China. In fact cotton production will be the lowest in 20 years... right when demand is at record highs. Consumption has outpaced demand for several years now, steadily drawing down inventories. Of course the price will spike in this situation.

    Similar stories can be told for copper, wheat, sugar, etc.
    Nov 8, 2010. 07:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starcraft Could Propel Activision Shares Further [View article]
    I agree that Cataclysm will keep subscriber numbers up in the short term. But in the long run it is worth paying attention to. Blizzard is many years from their next MMO, and to maintain revenue they need to keep all those players paying until they can attempt to entice them over to the new MMO.

    And so far the subscription model of game revenue only applies to one game, World of Warcraft.

    Also keep in mind that a lot of those subscriptions are in China. The Chinese government has caused Blizzard huge problems and delays in the past with getting new expansions approved.

    Anyways, short term (next 2 quarters) ATVI looks solid, but for a longer term investment, keep a close eye on it. Everquest looked bullet proof too, right up until their subscriber base collapsed rapidly within a few months. Sony was largely unable to recover those customers into Everquest 2.
    Nov 7, 2010. 09:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starcraft Could Propel Activision Shares Further [View article]
    I would be very cautious with ATVI. Warcraft's subscriber base could collapse quickly, as happened to Sony's Everquest. Keep a close eye on those numbers and bail if they drop.
    Nov 7, 2010. 05:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment