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David J Cohen

David J Cohen
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  • Nov. Empire State Survey: Manufacturing -11.14 vs. 13 expected, 15.73 prior. Employment 9.09 vs. 21.67 prior. New orders -24.38 vs. 12.9 prior. Prices -2.6 vs. 8.33 prior.  [View news story]
    New York is not exactly our center of manufacturing... and the state government is terrible, not a business friendly environment. It doesn't reflect manufacturing across the US. I've always thought this survey got too much attention.
    Nov 15, 2010. 08:42 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Service Restaurants Poised for Even Quicker Decline [View article]
    I have difficulty believing that current sky high Ag commodity prices will hold through 2011.

    The reason is simple. Why are prices so high? Supply shortages, due to a string of disappointing crops across the world for the past year. Why did the crops fail? Weather.

    Now weather is truly random. What is the probability that weather will be so terrible for farming again next year? Kinda low, there are a lot more possible outcomes that produce better weather, and better crops next year.

    Also farmer earned impressive profits this year, which they can reinvest in the form of farm equipment, fertilizer, and higher quality seed. This supports the potential for greatly increased supply next year, compared to 2010.

    That said, it will likely take some time for ag prices to start to drop. At minimum I would expect them to remain elevated through winter and quite possibly well into spring.

    Unfortunately for CMG, the technicals have clearly broken down, and it's like trying to catch a falling knife now. Clearly until the technicals look better, CMG has to be avoided on the long side, and remains a potential short for the aggressive trader.

    I plan to wait for a clear bottom on CMG, then buy in as a longer term investment. I think in the multi year sense, they will be a big success.
    Dec 31, 2010. 03:18 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bulls have seized momentum, but Richard Suttmeier sees little upside now, with "a lot of good news priced in" - QE2, the GOP midterm victory, the tax-cut extension. "All the bullish events are there," with 2011 no better than a "trading-range year." He would buy undervalued names CSCO and BBY, and sell overvalued stocks like F, TRW and FWLT.  [View news story]
    F is overvalued? oh really? PE Multiples of 9.4 are overvalued now?

    And he suggests buying two stocks which just got hammered after an earnings report (CSCO, BBY)? And both have higher PE multiples than ford.

    Somehow I doubt this guy makes much money.
    Dec 17, 2010. 09:02 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's the Oil Imports, Stupid! [View article]
    So the author wants us to both switch to using Natural Gas transportation (a non-existent technology), which would drastically increase Nat Gas demand... while at the same time limiting Hydraulic Fracturing... which would drastically decrease supply. Basic economics anyone?

    I can agree though on going long oil companies though, once the recent correction is over.
    Nov 17, 2010. 07:44 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why the Market Is Not a Forward Looking Indicator [View article]
    We all have a choice: try to stand in the way of the Fed or jump on board and profit from the ride. I'll take the latter.

    Most commodities other than gold have fundamental supply and demand causes for their increase. QE may help amplify that, but trying to blame QE entirely for commodities price increases is foolish.

    Just to pick cotton, demand is soaring due to foreign growth. At the same time many producers stopped growing cotton, combined with a disappointing crop in China. In fact cotton production will be the lowest in 20 years... right when demand is at record highs. Consumption has outpaced demand for several years now, steadily drawing down inventories. Of course the price will spike in this situation.

    Similar stories can be told for copper, wheat, sugar, etc.
    Nov 8, 2010. 07:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Optimistic Analysis Illustrates What's Wrong With Typical Investment Approach [View article]
    These forward ipad / iphone sales estimates are insane. Android is eating marketshare very rapidly in the phone space, and has already passed apple. The same thing will happen even more rapidly in the tablet space because apple refuses to compete on price.

    Look back to the PC vs Mac war long ago. Today its Android vs iOS. Android will win.

    Apple can only succeed and reach these insane price targets if A) they innovate something truly new or B) do something stupendously awesome with their horde of cash.
    Jan 3, 2011. 05:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pre-Holiday Market Outlook: Mixed Bag of Signals, More Risk Than Reward [View article]
    Perhaps someone can correct me, but my understanding was that last weeks 'omen' was a false signal. This was because most of the 52 week lows were not actually stocks. They were exotic etfs, largely bond related. Clearly most etfs should not be considered when looking for this sort of technical signal. At minimum bond etfs, and leveraged etfs should be ignored.
    Dec 20, 2010. 09:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Jim Chanos Short Netflix? [View article]
    NFLX now has machines stuffing envelopes, and in any case is moving more revenue to streaming. Now the PE multiple is still too rich in my opinion, but let's get the facts straight at least. I have no position long or short the stock.
    Dec 16, 2010. 10:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Black Friday Disappoints [View article]
    Perhaps some thought before giving out the doom and gloom.

    Shoppertrac watchs MALL traffic. It does not account for online retail, which anyone paying attention will know is where the vast bulk of growth is occurring. More and more consumers shop online. More and more ignore malls and department stores.

    Also this doesn't count for vastly increased revenues on Thursday, which is unprecedented.

    The more accurate sales figures released on Tuesday will prove me right, holiday sales are BOOMING.
    Nov 28, 2010. 06:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starcraft Could Propel Activision Shares Further [View article]
    I agree that Cataclysm will keep subscriber numbers up in the short term. But in the long run it is worth paying attention to. Blizzard is many years from their next MMO, and to maintain revenue they need to keep all those players paying until they can attempt to entice them over to the new MMO.

    And so far the subscription model of game revenue only applies to one game, World of Warcraft.

    Also keep in mind that a lot of those subscriptions are in China. The Chinese government has caused Blizzard huge problems and delays in the past with getting new expansions approved.

    Anyways, short term (next 2 quarters) ATVI looks solid, but for a longer term investment, keep a close eye on it. Everquest looked bullet proof too, right up until their subscriber base collapsed rapidly within a few months. Sony was largely unable to recover those customers into Everquest 2.
    Nov 7, 2010. 09:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starcraft Could Propel Activision Shares Further [View article]
    I would be very cautious with ATVI. Warcraft's subscriber base could collapse quickly, as happened to Sony's Everquest. Keep a close eye on those numbers and bail if they drop.
    Nov 7, 2010. 05:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Optimistic Analysis Illustrates What's Wrong With Typical Investment Approach [View article]
    Lesson learned, never say anything but nice rosy things in the presence of the apple faithful.

    Seriously though, American's are really simple. Presented with two nearly identical products, which do they buy? The cheaper one. I have a Droid X right here, and I've used iPhones. There is virtually no difference. A rigorous technical analysis of the two devices actually shows the droid is better.

    Just as there is little fundamental difference between PC and Mac. At least not to the largely tech deaf public, who don't notice little details. They notice the price tag.

    Profit side apple is dominating, yes. That is priced into the stock already though. Massive growth estimates are priced in. optimistic forecasts are priced in. In fact what has apple stock done lately? Barely been able to keep up with the overall nasdaq.

    Apple stock can go up, but it will not outperform the larger index in any serious way. I certainly wouldn't short it either, sentiment is too high.

    Consider this though, given the obvious sentiment present in the stock (read these comments!) what happens if / when apple misses an earnings report? I have this entertaining image of a train going off a cliff in my head.
    Jan 4, 2011. 09:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Service Restaurants Poised for Even Quicker Decline [View article]
    Let's see, an individual bill at Chipotle is about 10 dollars, who doesn't order a soda these days? So that works out to roughly 43 customers per hour on average through a 12 hour day. Seems reasonable to me.

    The stores I've been too have a line... constantly. Doesn't matter what time of day, there is a line. One I went too in Ft Lauderdale while on vacation had 25 people in line, at 2 pm on a Wednesday afternoon. Every seat in the restaurant was taken. This was with about 8 employees working to move the line as quick as they could (and they kept that line moving). That store easily served over 100 people in the half hour I was there. Lot's of people did take out.

    The popularity of these places is staggering.
    Jan 1, 2011. 07:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil ETF vs. Oil Stocks? No Real Choice for Individual Investors [View article]
    See when I trade UCO (double oil bull) I don't expect double return on oil. I understand the etf and it's real performance compared to oil.

    Just because a fund says it does something doesn't mean it will do that. Any investor should trade based on real performance, not some fantasy.
    Dec 28, 2010. 09:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil ETF vs. Oil Stocks? No Real Choice for Individual Investors [View article]
    For shorter term trades also consider UCO. It is a double leveraged bull etf that tries to track oil.
    Dec 27, 2010. 01:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment