NextWave Wireless: The Most Leveraged Play on iPhone 3G [View article]
The bad news are
1) that there is only two buyers of WAVE's spectrum 2) base station routers poses more limitation on wireless traffic congestion than airwave utilization. 3) WAVE's WiMax business aren't getting traction and 4) its TDD broadcasting technology only has limited users in Europe
Apple Stalls, but Shorting Is Risky [View article]
All investments have inherent risks above treasury and long/short Apple isn't any different.
Apple is a long term story, but that doesn't prevent the stock from short-term dips. All the fan-fare build into the expectations of Apple makes it a very good short target.
Shorted Apple two weeks ahead of MacWorld at around $190. Everything regarding iPhone 3G, besides the $199 price tag, was expected from the blogsphere and firmware hacking group, it could only surprise on the downside. And it did. Covered two week after when the stock drop below $170. Made a quick 10%+ in a week and half. :)
Probably I will short it again into earnings if it go above $195-$200. 2Q results will very likely to be ugly with iPhone sales completely stalled and iPhone 3G eating into the iPod market. Computers are not going to be doing well either given Foxconn's comment on a soft 2Q/3Q orders.
3G iPhone: What Has Apple Got Against Cameras? [View article]
IMO, the responses marks the grossly different usage and behavior model of cellular phones in the US and the rest of the world.
In the countries I travel to, including Western Europe and East Asia, people have long replaced their camera with their cell-phone cameras for casual usage. Of course they still have a big SLR DC when they take pictures at weddings or traveling, but for most of their pictures taken on a daily basis it is cell phone camera.
I personally only uses my N95 for pictures since my brother has his SLR. My friends uses their iPhone only for pictures most of the time. Honestly speaking the picture quality of iPhone is not bad at all considering the lack of flash.
Apple's iChat and China: The Perfect Marriage [View article]
Ignorant OP.
1. iChat is not compatible with QQ so people will not exactly transfer their IM accounts. 2. China Mobile is very highly likely to carry TDS-CDMA and Apple's 3G iPhone is highly unlikely to have TDS.
One of the reason I don't typically touch Apple stock is the emotions and its household name.
Agreements with carriers such as Vodafone or France Telecom adds a huge number to TAM but doesn't translate to Apple iPhone's TAM. Or do you really believe all 60M of Vodafone Essar's subscribers can afford iPhone? Or all 31M of Claro's subscribers have access to 3G towers?
Reality check please. Not all markets mimics the structure, buying power and behavior of the good-o-homogeneous-USA... Western Europe didn't and chances of Turkey, Egypt, India or Brazil of behaving like US is pretty low.
Don't get me wrong; signing agreements with more carriers is good for Apple and the carriers, but it is certainly not going to pump up the TAM to some ridiculous number like 600M.
The high end cell phone market (smart phone if you are American) leads the mainstream cell phone market by 2 years, which itself leads the mass market (i.e., $50 handsets) by another 2 years.
iPhone is a great product (again, for Americans who are lagging seriously behind in high end cell phone adoptions), but it will not be a dominating force; usage model and life cycle differ greatly on a country-by-country basis. What has worked great in America will not translate to success in other countries especially for gadgets and gaming devices.
The high end cell phone market (smart phone if you are American) leads the mainstream cell phone market by 2 years, which itself leads the mass market (i.e., $50 handsets) by another 2 years.
iPhone is a great product (again, for Americans who are lagging seriously behind in high end cell phone adoptions), but it will not be a dominating force; usage model and life cycle differ greatly on a country-by-country basis. What has worked great in America will not translate to success in other countries especially for gadgets and gaming devices.
To all the Apple fans in the thread - it's not able the reported quarter but the guidance for the next quarter.
Apple did an amazing job last quarter, no doubts about that. But the forward guidance is a bit disappointing and all the fears of consumer spending slowing down contributed to the sharp decline of Apple share price.
How would carriers lose is beyond my comprehension; more off-the-shelf wireless devices drives higher wireless/data traffic and more contract signed.
Tight control exercised by carriers? IMO they are just doing quality control. iPhone connection problems in UK were a result of poor hardware design and time constrained validation process.
If you buy an off-the-shelf phone and it works poorly with AT&T, guess who you would blame? AT&T. Not the white-box cellphone maker, even when a proper AT&T validated device is having full bars at the same spot.
NextWave Wireless: The Most Leveraged Play on iPhone 3G [View article]
1) that there is only two buyers of WAVE's spectrum
2) base station routers poses more limitation on wireless traffic congestion than airwave utilization.
3) WAVE's WiMax business aren't getting traction and
4) its TDD broadcasting technology only has limited users in Europe
A Real iPhone Challenger - Barron's [View article]
So how many of you Apple fanboys are posting here using iPhone while lining up for July 11th release?
Apple Stalls, but Shorting Is Risky [View article]
Apple is a long term story, but that doesn't prevent the stock from short-term dips. All the fan-fare build into the expectations of Apple makes it a very good short target.
Shorted Apple two weeks ahead of MacWorld at around $190. Everything regarding iPhone 3G, besides the $199 price tag, was expected from the blogsphere and firmware hacking group, it could only surprise on the downside. And it did. Covered two week after when the stock drop below $170. Made a quick 10%+ in a week and half. :)
Probably I will short it again into earnings if it go above $195-$200. 2Q results will very likely to be ugly with iPhone sales completely stalled and iPhone 3G eating into the iPod market. Computers are not going to be doing well either given Foxconn's comment on a soft 2Q/3Q orders.
OP is right. Sell the news.
3G iPhone: What Has Apple Got Against Cameras? [View article]
In the countries I travel to, including Western Europe and East Asia, people have long replaced their camera with their cell-phone cameras for casual usage. Of course they still have a big SLR DC when they take pictures at weddings or traveling, but for most of their pictures taken on a daily basis it is cell phone camera.
I personally only uses my N95 for pictures since my brother has his SLR. My friends uses their iPhone only for pictures most of the time. Honestly speaking the picture quality of iPhone is not bad at all considering the lack of flash.
Apple's iChat and China: The Perfect Marriage [View article]
1. iChat is not compatible with QQ so people will not exactly transfer their IM accounts.
2. China Mobile is very highly likely to carry TDS-CDMA and Apple's 3G iPhone is highly unlikely to have TDS.
Goldman Raises Apple's Price Target on 3G iPhone Launch [View article]
Agreements with carriers such as Vodafone or France Telecom adds a huge number to TAM but doesn't translate to Apple iPhone's TAM. Or do you really believe all 60M of Vodafone Essar's subscribers can afford iPhone? Or all 31M of Claro's subscribers have access to 3G towers?
Reality check please. Not all markets mimics the structure, buying power and behavior of the good-o-homogeneous-USA... Western Europe didn't and chances of Turkey, Egypt, India or Brazil of behaving like US is pretty low.
Don't get me wrong; signing agreements with more carriers is good for Apple and the carriers, but it is certainly not going to pump up the TAM to some ridiculous number like 600M.
Goldman Raises Apple's Price Target on 3G iPhone Launch [View article]
The high end cell phone market (smart phone if you are American) leads the mainstream cell phone market by 2 years, which itself leads the mass market (i.e., $50 handsets) by another 2 years.
iPhone is a great product (again, for Americans who are lagging seriously behind in high end cell phone adoptions), but it will not be a dominating force; usage model and life cycle differ greatly on a country-by-country basis. What has worked great in America will not translate to success in other countries especially for gadgets and gaming devices.
Goldman Raises Apple's Price Target on 3G iPhone Launch [View article]
The high end cell phone market (smart phone if you are American) leads the mainstream cell phone market by 2 years, which itself leads the mass market (i.e., $50 handsets) by another 2 years.
iPhone is a great product (again, for Americans who are lagging seriously behind in high end cell phone adoptions), but it will not be a dominating force; usage model and life cycle differ greatly on a country-by-country basis. What has worked great in America will not translate to success in other countries especially for gadgets and gaming devices.
Apple Sitting on Excess Inventory? [View article]
Apple did an amazing job last quarter, no doubts about that. But the forward guidance is a bit disappointing and all the fears of consumer spending slowing down contributed to the sharp decline of Apple share price.
Google Mobile: Winners and Losers [View article]
Tight control exercised by carriers? IMO they are just doing quality control. iPhone connection problems in UK were a result of poor hardware design and time constrained validation process.
If you buy an off-the-shelf phone and it works poorly with AT&T, guess who you would blame? AT&T. Not the white-box cellphone maker, even when a proper AT&T validated device is having full bars at the same spot.
Corporate Use of Macs On the Rise [View article]
Apple's Leopard to Use Bandwidth as Currency? [View article]