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nuatthis

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  • There's Still No Reason To Own Amira Nature Foods [View article]
    So which side is going to jail? The report misstates ANFI's market and states that its business is entirely in India, as a result of which the report questions ANFI's branding. ANFI does appear to be way overleveraged but does not appear to be going out of business, although we'll see more when earnings are released, assuming we can believe anything in the earnings release. Where are the auditors in this controversy, since they are going to be the ones on the hook if the sales are phony?
    Feb 18, 2015. 03:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amira Nature Foods Aftermath: There's No Reason To Own This Stock [View article]
    The "fraud" report assumed that ANFI was an India-based company, appears to have assumed that all of its sales took place there, and their analysis on branding dealt with India. ANFI, if we can believe what we have read from brokers, etc., is focused on branding in many countries, and that's where their sales growth is taking place. Presumably 40% of their sales occur in India, and that appears to be a mass-market operation, since branding in India is not feasible because of the nature of the consumer of the rice. The company's response to the allegations, which were also made several months ago, is lackluster and would lead to the conclusion that some of the "fraud" allegations are true, probably the real estate deal. The usual law firm suspects are now involved, but the SEC should be on this right away and one of the US Attorneys.
    Feb 13, 2015. 04:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Statement from Amira Nature Foods [View article]
    Does anyone believe the company's statement? When the charges were made by the same short seller some time ago, the company did not address the real estate conflict situation then, and still has not. The allegations on the sales situation are probably only partially true, if at all, since they appear to assume that all of Amira's business, branded or otherwise, takes place in India. The company purports to sell in many countries and under a branded trademark, and the focus of the analysis of the company's future success is on the fact of its foreign market success. We will see if either the short-seller or the company's management is the subject of federal action and a stay in the clink.
    Feb 10, 2015. 06:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amira Nature Foods: Abandon Ship [View article]
    I read the report and if any part of it is true the husband and wife team should be doing a long stretch in federal prison. The report includes allegation of phony sales and fraudulent self-dealing in real estate transactions. Typical of what we have seen with Chinese companies which bought into the OTC market by acquiring listed shell companies. The auditors will be on the hook for significant damages if the Indian sales figures turn out to be as phony as the short-selling company alleges. Why no one looked at the sales figure before recommending the stock is anyone's guess, and even more significant is the allegation that the "branding" of ANFI's basmati rice was non-existent, although trumpeted in its press releases and SEC documents. If the allegations turn out to be true, it is a good reference for the Chinese way of dealing with significant economic cheaters, a bullet to the back of the head. There's no other way for fraudsters to understand the consequences of misdeeds.
    Feb 9, 2015. 06:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Kors Stock Set For Strong Performance Before, During, And After February 5 [View article]
    If 25% of sales come from international markets, the rise in the value of the $$ will have an impact on earnings projections, which play havoc with stock valuation. Have you taken the $$ issue into account in your projections?
    Jan 25, 2015. 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contradictions And Misnomers Discovered In SodaStream Presentation [View article]
    This article is one of the best I have read on SODA and what is going on with the company. The question for the future is whether it will ever develop a US market that compares with its European market. Its US marketing has been a drag on earnings and earnings expectations, and the verdict is still out, as far as I can see. It has niches in the US, such as the Brooklyn niche discussed in the comment, but it needs to play in places other than the blue states to be successful. Rolling out in Mexico or Argentina is a nice thing to do, but the markets in South America are niche markets and probably won't contribute anything substantial. I would like to hear more about the boycott in Europe and whether it is extensive -- after all, Europe has recently awakened from its anti-Semitic slumber as the right wing, proto-nationalist movements emerge in many of its countries.
    Dec 7, 2014. 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avago Technologies: Don't Ignore These Catalysts [View article]
    Well done! I got lucky and bought options yesterday, thinking along your lines. The company looks well-placed in the industry and its price target was raised today to over $100.
    Aug 29, 2014. 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Las Vegas Sands - Macao Slowdown Is Evident In Second Quarter Results [View article]
    Despite the reaction of the writer and some others, it was a fine quarter in all respects. The Macau mass market, which LVS dominates, is the future, and the dire predictions on the high end will likely not come to pass. LVS has the inside track in Japan, which will perhaps pass gaming legislation in the fall. If that occurs, and LVS wins a casino bid there, the stock will explode, given the size of the potential Japanese gaming market. LVS is a long-term buy and you will receive dividends along the way.
    Jul 17, 2014. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caesars CEO eyes debt deal, says can finance $5B Japan expansion [View news story]
    CZR is a disaster and Loveman has been a terrible boss for the company, which used to be the best in the industry. The company's US markets are in terrible shape, its debt is overwhelming in the face of pressured cash flow, and its bondholders are justifiably after it for the fraudulent conveyances of a number of its gaming assets. Any lender refinancing its debt will wind up being sued by its shareholders when the debt gets written off. The company is a terrific short candidate, and buying puts is the way to do it.
    Jun 26, 2014. 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks Is A Sell [View article]
    SBUX is almost completely hedged for 2015, they're going to raise prices slightly, they're expanding product offerings of food in the stores, including alcohol, and they're rolling out Teavana. If you had as much stock as Schultz, 20% sale is not a heck of a lot. It may be a short-term sell, but this article is much ado about nothing. Why wouldn't you keep SBUX in a long-term portfolio?
    Mar 25, 2014. 09:49 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Net 1 Is A Great Play On The Unbanked Market [View article]
    UEPS was not found to be corrupt by the court. The court's reasoning with respect to its finding the government handled the contract improperly is turgid and a real stretch, but we are waiting now for the denouement from the court as to the penalty, presumably primarily on the government. It is unlikely that the contract will be invalidated, but whether the appellant is entitled to be paid anything by UEPS is the open question, even though UEPS did nothing wrong. UEPS has achieved terrific results for the South African government in UEPS's distribution program and has excellent prospects throughout Africa and in Asia, where credit card use is not common.
    Mar 11, 2014. 03:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nu Skin, An American Pyramid In China? [View article]
    You are missing the point. It's not about NUS and its stock price, but about the Chinese marketplace and how it treats foreign companies. Did you make the same inane comment when that same Chinese newspaper took on Starbucks for charging more for coffee that it did in some other countries?
    Jan 19, 2014. 10:54 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nu Skin, An American Pyramid In China? [View article]
    The issue is China, not your particular feeling about MLM businesses. Your amazement is amazing.
    Jan 19, 2014. 10:51 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nu Skin, An American Pyramid In China? [View article]
    While the article professes to be about Nu Skin's business in China, it is more a diatribe against NUS and its business operation/model in the US. The Company stated it changed its business model for China, because of its laws, and, the author fails to note, has been operating in China for many years and has registered its products in accordance with Chinese regulations and is registered in the provinces where it operates. Something obviously occurred recently for the Chinese mouthpiece paper to focus on NUS, but what that is, no one knows. The author sheds no light on the issue of NUS's business in China and what happened this week. What is troubling from a business perspective is the manner in which China deals with foreign businesses in that country. Recently we have seen what happened with Starbucks as a result of another faux article in that same government flak "newspaper", and the same thing could happen to any foreign business that the government wants to "out" for its own reasons. China is no friend of this country, despite our heavy financial interdependence, and there is a lesson to be learned for any company that depends for a significant portion of its revenue from China, in this case NUS's 30%. The Chinese government wants its own companies to be successful as it seeks to increase local consumerism, and successful foreign consumer operations, whether NUS or any other consumer company, are at severe risk if the government deems them too successful.
    Jan 19, 2014. 10:49 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Q4 2013 Results Provide Even Weaker Guidance [View article]
    The article is somewhat off-base. The market for k-cups is expanding here and overseas and GMCR is clearly the leader. Coffee prices have come down and will probably stay down, helping margins. Competition from low-end supermarkets is there, but people need Keurig brewers to make the coffee and, for the most part, the buyers of the alternative k-cups (perhaps with the exception of Whole Foods and its ilk) are not the principle market for Keurig in any event. Einhorn and the consistently negative analysts may affect the stock price and create volatility, but the business model is a good one and will continue to be one, even if GMCR's management has left something to be desired.
    Nov 27, 2013. 01:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
57 Comments
56 Likes