Our Response To Robert Walter Regarding Herbalife And 10b5-1 Plan [View article]
There was no material non-public information. The idiot short-sellers took their strategy public and provided an excellent opportunity for share buybacks. Maybe the short-sellers should be subject to "The Hunger Games" and we can see who's the last idiot standing!
Why Coffee Holding Co. Is Better Buy Than Green Mountain Coffee Roasters [View article]
GMCR's projected growth is better than JVA's and there is scant evdience that the expiration of the patents on the Keurig has affected GMCR, despite the panic that prevailed for months before the expiration. The k-cup market is continuing to grow. If you want to play the coffee commodity market, trade the beans and not JVA.
The over-analysis above is ridiculous. GMCR is enjoying terrific growth in its key products, and is selling great numbers of brewers, which drives pod sales. The business plan is realistic and is doable. Analysts keep looking for excuses to drive down the stock. GMCR has a real, growing business, with loyal users, and there is no real competition. It owns a niche that is very relevant to our economy. What's the stock worth is the real question: what would you pay for a company which owns a niche which will continue to grow for the foreseeable future, whether at 15%, 18% or 20%?
Baidu's Q4 Report Shows Growth Is Still Slow Despite Higher Profits [View article]
Compared with almost any other company, the extent of growth in both revenue and earnings is noteworthy. With 80% of the Chinese market, growth is not going to stop. So why does all of the commentary consist of hand-wringing? This is a real company with a real future. We should give it the same PE that the market gives Amazon, which will never bring the growth down to the bottom line. Everyone should get real!
Net 1 UEPS Technologies FCPA Probe: Now What? [View article]
The Korean business was an acquisition and is not part of the DOJ inquiry. The South African business is probably make or break for the company, but the allegations which have led to whatever DOJ is doing stem from the long-standing litigation and publicity tactics of the losing bidder for the SASSA contract. This will take some time to play out in the South African courts on the appeals by the loser; and since the government's contract process was declared by the courts to be illegal, what happens there is uncertain unless the higher court reverses that lower court holding. The stock is cheap enough for a shot, but it's pure speculation. If the DOJ goes away, which would be my guess, the stock will at least double, and the DOJ inquiry will not take that long.
Netflix: Icahn Stake Should Not Be Viewed As A 'Ticket To Ride' [View article]
Icahn will straighten out the company and its finances, and will have a few Board members appointed to keep the self-serving managment under control. Netflix is the gorilla in the room in this area of on-line commerce, and Amazon and the others are going to fall by the wayside.
Long Starbucks On Verismo Brewers, Short Green Mountain Coffee On Competitive Threats [View article]
With all of the brands available for the Keurig, regardless of the patent issues, who is going to stop podding the machine? No one I know. The pods are convenient, and the variety lets you vary the type of coffee consumed through the day. What does Kroger have to do with it? If I want a Caribou or SBUX k-cup, that's what I'll use. No one in his right mind is going to switch to Kroger. Why all of the analysts assume that Keurig users are all of a sudden going to switch to low-end store brands because they may be a bit cheaper, is beyond me. Ask my wife if she'll switch to Kroger from what she drinks. GMCR is NOT going away. Management should, but the brand is not a fad.
Life after DVDs: Though the market for DVDs is on life support with digital options proliferating, movie studios might not miss a beat with over 200 cable, satellite, and Internet services now offering post-theatrical movie viewing options. The next wave could see heavyweights players such as CBS, Netflix, Coinstar, Amazon, and Apple start bidding even higher to land exclusive rights to premium content or move in the other direction to invest in their own original programming [View news story]
There's still some life in BIG movies' DVD sales, e.g. "Hunger Games". For the rest, they're available on multiple on-line sites, so no one other than the obsessed would want to own them.
Morgan Stanley Helps Shorts Crowded In Skullcandy, Creates Buying Opportunity [View article]
SKUL certainly doesn't help itself, despite its fine products and successful marketing. One would think it would say something, at least to assure the world it's not going out of business suddenly. The company, like many small companies, has no inside PR/investor relations department to take the heat off, and the information it does give out about it's so-called outside PR person features a person with no Google information and a disconnected phone number. Very reassuring, isn't it?
Epix isn't done signing streaming deals ... at least it hopes. The movie channel, co-owned by Viacom (VIA, VIAB), Lions Gate (LGF), and MGM, says it's talking with several companies, including Apple (previous), Google, and Hulu, about licensing its library. News of Epix's deal with Amazon did a number on former exclusive partner Netflix (NFLX -6.4%) today. [View news story]
The fact that Epix is making more money does not detract from Netflix, since the movies are there to view. No one in his right mind would migrate from Netflix somewhere else, since the $8/month is less than HBO, Starz or any of the other premium channels, whose movies are usless. The panic sellers are very short-sighted. We all know that management at Netflix is awful and should be replaced, but that still doesn't mean subscribers are going to disappear. Current movies are available from Red Box, good libraries and on some of the on-line sites, but that's not the point of Netflix -- it's the vast inventory and the ability to search it and find older movies and documentaries of every sort that matters.
Zagg: 10 Times Earnings And The Shorts Are Sill Not Covering [View article]
Buying calls or selling puts on ZAGG and SKUL is the cheap way to go, and that's probably the best way to play these 2 stocks for the inevitable move up. Your analysis is right on, and you could add SODA to the mix. The "smart money" doesn't believe in life style companies that focus on a small number of products/product categories.
Short Squeeze Looms For Skullcandy, And Solid Fundamentals That Add To The Stock's Luster [View article]
Excellent article. I have been talking up SKUL for awhile and most people think the story is too good to be true -- but it isn't, it's the real deal. And the shorts are going to have some bad days!
Netflix's Move Into Scandinavia: Not Exactly Big [View article]
As with anything else, it depends on what it costs to roll out the product in the 4 Northern European markets. What penetration rates will be is not clear, but given the geography of the countries and the relative incomes of its citizens, I would expect penetration to be higher than in many other places. The article doesn't say what/if there is streaming competition there alrady and that, of course, would make a difference in entry costs and the time to get subscriber counts to a profitable level. Not a particularly helpful article, just the usual pot shot. Yes, we all know Netflix management are dopes, but the product is still unbeatable, at least for now.
Despite efforts to sway officials in China, IMAXconfirms that The Dark Knight Rises and The Amazing Spider-Man will be released on the same day in the nation. Piper Jaffray says the development will impact the company's global Q3 box office haul, but keeps its Overweight rating and $32 price target in place on the firm's long-term potential. Also impacted to a degree by the dual release: Sony (SNE -1.2%) and Time Warner (TWX +0.1%). [View news story]
Doesn't the evaluation of whether the double release on ths same day has any earnings impact depend on how long the movies can remain in IMAX theaters? Presumably the 2 movies will not be released in the same theaters on the same day, so the length of their permitted roll-out is the key question which is not answered in this partial news story.
Shorting doesn't seem like a good bet. It's always hard to fix a realistic value on an iconic stock that has decent growth programmed into it. Everywhere I have traveled in the past year there has been Starbucks and invariably the stores have done very solid business, whether in China, France or England. Business is better than ever where I live in New Jersey. I'm certain there are much better short candidates in the stock universe.
Our Response To Robert Walter Regarding Herbalife And 10b5-1 Plan [View article]
Why Coffee Holding Co. Is Better Buy Than Green Mountain Coffee Roasters [View article]
Green Mountain: Too Far, Too Fast [View article]
Baidu's Q4 Report Shows Growth Is Still Slow Despite Higher Profits [View article]
Net 1 UEPS Technologies FCPA Probe: Now What? [View article]
Netflix: Icahn Stake Should Not Be Viewed As A 'Ticket To Ride' [View article]
Long Starbucks On Verismo Brewers, Short Green Mountain Coffee On Competitive Threats [View article]
Life after DVDs: Though the market for DVDs is on life support with digital options proliferating, movie studios might not miss a beat with over 200 cable, satellite, and Internet services now offering post-theatrical movie viewing options. The next wave could see heavyweights players such as CBS, Netflix, Coinstar, Amazon, and Apple start bidding even higher to land exclusive rights to premium content or move in the other direction to invest in their own original programming [View news story]
Morgan Stanley Helps Shorts Crowded In Skullcandy, Creates Buying Opportunity [View article]
Epix isn't done signing streaming deals ... at least it hopes. The movie channel, co-owned by Viacom (VIA, VIAB), Lions Gate (LGF), and MGM, says it's talking with several companies, including Apple (previous), Google, and Hulu, about licensing its library. News of Epix's deal with Amazon did a number on former exclusive partner Netflix (NFLX -6.4%) today. [View news story]
Zagg: 10 Times Earnings And The Shorts Are Sill Not Covering [View article]
Short Squeeze Looms For Skullcandy, And Solid Fundamentals That Add To The Stock's Luster [View article]
Netflix's Move Into Scandinavia: Not Exactly Big [View article]
Despite efforts to sway officials in China, IMAX confirms that The Dark Knight Rises and The Amazing Spider-Man will be released on the same day in the nation. Piper Jaffray says the development will impact the company's global Q3 box office haul, but keeps its Overweight rating and $32 price target in place on the firm's long-term potential. Also impacted to a degree by the dual release: Sony (SNE -1.2%) and Time Warner (TWX +0.1%). [View news story]
Starbucks: Short The Bubble [View article]