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  • Why Orthofix Is Grossly Undervalued And Worth Looking Into [View article]
    Worked out well. Congrats on this call.
    Jun 29 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fresh highs for Zillow; Canaccord ups PT, sees plenty of growth [View news story]
    Take a look at Rightmove (the Z of the UK) Ebitda margins, apply those on the revenues Z can conservatively make 5-7 years out and do the math. That will give you an impression of the potential profitability Z can achieve and what multiple you are paying for that right now.
    Jun 17 04:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nu Skin - 35% Upside: After The Molting, Nu Skin [View article]
    It would be interesting to hear the bear case at this level, other than the accusation it's a pyramid scheme.
    I'm long this stock as well, but don't expect a short term stock lift from an earnings surprise. Listening to the last conference call, it sounded as if a more cautious approach to sales promotion makes it likely we will not see a return (in the next few years) to historically high growth rates experienced in 2013.
    Much depends on the lasting impact of the damage to reputation done in China by the negative press coverage - thankfully, people (including investors) only have short memories.
    May 23 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Yelp Ever Be Profitable? [View article]
    suppose we change 'monthly unique users' for 'eye balls' - ring a bell?
    Oct 30 09:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Orthofix Is Grossly Undervalued And Worth Looking Into [View article]
    I agree that the stock appears significantly undervalued using the historical reported results. However, these are indeed of no value anymore. What is clear from their historical results is dangerously high current assets, which could well mean that either the revenue reported is significantly overstated, or/and that its inventories need a big write down.
    It appears the balance sheet can handle this - cash flow isn't that bad, but the red flags are clearly out there and investing right now is simply dangerous. Managemet is quite likely entire focused on the organization instead of with the market/clients/innovat... and this may pressure results in the next 6-24 months.
    The jury is out there - I happily await more clarity from the sidelines.
    Oct 23 09:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insider Selling At Yelp Is A Non-Issue [View article]
    at least your apparent frustration is compensated by huge sums of money you undoubtedly have made for yourself with all your timely stock ideas!
    Oct 4 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insider Selling At Yelp Is A Non-Issue [View article]
    If you could elaborate a bit on how you did your valuation/came to your price target/estimated fair market cap, I'd be interested.
    Sep 27 09:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG: Spin-Off Mortgage Unit United Guaranty To Unlock Value [View article]
    tnx, good article. Is it Bruce from Fairholme responding here?
    Aug 21 07:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Highly Valued, But Is It Overvalued? Maybe And Maybe Not [View article]
    Hi, I am not short or long the stock. Both sides appear to have high risk, and that is enough reason not to get involved for me.

    You have had ample opportunities (in hindsight) to make 100% in 3 years, but it could certainly have been done with a lot less risk. As an example I do own NUS, now up >100% in 8 months, which became clearly undervalued when it was out of favor some 6-12 months ago for no more than speculative reasons.

    So despite all the temptation, I don't do anything most of the time, waiting for good companies to fall temporarily out of favor.
    Jul 28 09:42 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Highly Valued, But Is It Overvalued? Maybe And Maybe Not [View article]
    It is not a question of overvaluation. It is clear the stock doesn't offer a margin of safety in the event growth will taper off, which inevitably is going to happen.
    So look at downside risk as well as upside potential and see if it offers an attractive risk/reward. No shortcuts will get you to an informed answer.
    A good start would be to analyze what a normalized level of operating earnings would be when it would stop investing for growth, rhen estimate how sustainable that level of earnings would be and apply a conservative multiple.
    Jul 27 08:23 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Value Is Just A Click Away [View article]
    thanks for writing something aout vclk. as a suggestion for your next analysis don't forget to value the company's shares. the story as you describe may or may not be discounted in the share price
    Jul 15 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cosi: Promising Turnaround Opportunity With Significant Upside [View article]
    Your comparison of value per store of cosi to pnra and cmg doesn't hold up, as cosi is at least partially a franchise organisation, whereas the other two are directly owned stores.
    Dec 27 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fossil - Shares Are Falling On Continuous Worries About Europe [View article]
    In the Netherlands they have been telling dealers that they can discount the full range of fossil watches by 10%, just to push sales. That's an interesting strategy for a company that is trying to build a strong brand.
    Nov 7 07:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Real Faith In True Religion [View article]
    If you correct for the cash pile amounting to USD 8 per share, the PE goes down substantially (about 30%), implying a PE below 10x. At this level, the stock is trading ex-growth, even though the long term growth prospects are substantial. Short-term problems notwithstanding (causing pressure on earnings), the current valuation looks very attractive. As and when newsflow improves, rising earnings expectations combined with a multiple rerating will generate many more believers than TRLG has now.
    Apr 4 12:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FactSet Research Systems' CEO Discusses F2Q12 Earnings Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    where is the Q&A?
    Mar 14 08:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment