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  • OncoSec's Catalyst Filled 2013 To Be A Wild Ride

    OncoSec Medical (OTCQB:ONCS) is a biotechnology company headquartered out of San Diego that focuses on the treatment of advanced staged skin cancer. The company's main effort right now is its ImmunoPulse treatment which is part of the OncoSec Medical System (OMS) technology. The OMS uses an electroporation based process using short bursts of electricity to target tumors and increases the effectiveness of drug therapies. The advantage is its non-invasiveness and it eliminates toxicity usually associate with the proven drug therapies when quantity of a drug becomes the only effective treatment. Currently OncoSec has three ongoing Phase II trials for its ImunoPulse DNA IL-12 Therapy. The trials include the treatment of Melanoma, T-cell Lymphoma (CTCL) and Merkel cell Carcinoma (MCC). In previous testing OncoSec found its NeoPulse therapy had a complete response rate of >70% for Squamous cell carcinoma and >90% for Basal cell carcinoma, which bodes well for its efficacy and safety concerns in the three Phase II trials on going now. The technology used to create this delivery method cost nearly 100 million dollars to develop and the result so far speak very highly of possible success in the current trials. OncoSec's 2013 is scattered with important catalysts and by year end all data from the three trials should be out. The successive catalysts could truly send the stock soaring by year end, whereas in the biotech sphere this year data has been trader increasingly more aggressive. The Melanoma trial will be the first trial out with interim data expected in May and with positive results should set the stage for the rest of the year. The next catalyst will be the MCC interim data expected sometime in July. Final Phase II data will be out In October for both the Melanoma and MCC trials. Interim data on the CTCL trial will also be released ahead of the others in August.

    May

    June

    July

    August

    September

    October

    PhII interim data for Melanoma

    PhI PFS Long term data for Melanoma

    PhII interim data for MCC

    PhII MCC enrollment complete

    PhII interim data for CTCL

    PhII final data for Melanoma and MCC

    The MCC trial may be the most vital to the companies near term success. Merkel Cell Carcinoma is one of the most deadly forms of skin cancer and only has a 60% 5 year survival rate and in stage 3 and 4 cancers only a 15% 5 year survival rate, while having an extremely high reoccurrence rate. While Melanoma affects nearly 60,000 people a year, MCC only affects around 1,500 yearly in the U.S. This leads to another important factor; the possibility of an Orphan Drug designation by the FDA and the 8 years of market exclusivity along with premium pricing. Also, ImmunoPulse DNA IL-12 is the only MCC targeted treated currently in Phase II development.

    The balance sheet also looks very promising for OncoSec, they last raised cash in December with an offering and have a very low burn rate with enough cash to last until the first quarter 2013. The company reported having 88.4 million shares outstanding with a float of 77.28 million shares. The float should begin to shrink over the course of 2013 as the stock gains momentum and attention from the penny stock retail should improve the price. Also, the company filled a schedule 13G on January 29 selling 7.3 million shares to Sabby Management LLC for their Sabby Healthcare Volatility Master Fund. There is also nearly 24% insider ownership and that should also increase over the course of the year. Volume remains good for the stock at a 3 month average of over 1.6 million however the price action has been weak. Although OncoSec's stock has yet to truly awaken, we have seen how these microcap stocks (19.32 Million for ONCS) can gain momentum very fast. With the tremendous amount of data and catalyst this year I believe the stock could see its Roth Capital target of $1.00 by the end of October following its double dose of final Phase II data as long as the biotech bulls stay hungry. Also, by the end of 2013 we will know where all of it current trials stand. I believe based on the companies resounding success with it NeoPulse platform that there is a very good chance positive results. With the possibility of an Orphan Drug designator and the OMS's being an alternative to chemotherapy, surgery and radiation therapy I believe that with good results the FDA will fast track the platform possibly for a 2014 approval.

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:ONCS. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Tags: ONCS, long-ideas
    Jan 30 7:52 AM | Link | 1 Comment
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