Seeking Alpha

eduso

eduso
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View eduso's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Gilead: What's Ahead In 2015 For This Biotech Juggernaut [View article]
    Dear Bret,

    You fail to mention the most important news, which impacts the GILD long story: ABBV new drug accepted by FDA and list price is just 10% below that Harvoni- ABBV is most probably out of the game. This puts the whole article on easy footing. This is really just another article on GILD without any real new content. You keep repeating... (oh, really, how many articles have you recently published with about the same content on GILD already? )

    Ed
    Dec 21, 2014. 08:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Walls Of Worry Update [View article]
    Succint and to the point as often, esp. the last paragraph. Thank you.

    The dropping oil price will probably lead to mass default of certain countries. The financial and esp. political outcome, esp. in the case of Russia, a non-democratic atom-power, is hard to predict, and this is the source of headache and uncertainty also for the market.

    (In June, 1944 Hitler's response to the Allied landing was intensifying of the V2 bombing raids against English cities. Just off the margin.)
    Dec 17, 2014. 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's Mad Money - The Good Isis (12/10/14) [View article]
    "Biotech is a safe haven in the current environment."

    Beware... the Ides of March (2014) might come.
    Dec 11, 2014. 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: A Bounce Is On The Horizon [View article]
    Global warming may be a big business...

    "To the present day there is still no scientific proof that man-made CO2 causes significant global warming."

    "The HadCRUT3 surface temperature index, produced by the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office and the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, shows warming to 1878, cooling to 1911, warming to 1941, cooling to 1964, warming to 1998 and cooling through 2011."

    "Medieval Warm Period, from around 1000 to1200 AD (when the Vikings farmed on Greenland) was followed by a period known as the Little Ice Age. Since the end of the 17th Century the "average global temperature" has been rising at the low steady rate mentioned above; although from 1940 – 1970 temperatures actually dropped, leading to a Global Cooling scare." -

    See more at: http://bit.ly/1ytroJP
    Dec 8, 2014. 10:48 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sovaldi Versus Abbvie Combination: Analysis Of Abbvie Combination Impact On Sovaldi Market Share [View article]
    My comment had two parts.

    One: alternative treatments, esp. with efficacy taken into account, are not necessarily cheaper than the high price GILD products.

    Two: direct costs of medications are a tiny percentage of sales price and treatment cost.

    I have written just now to someone:
    "It is nice to see for example:
    1. cost of treatment, with efficacy ratio incl.comparison-- with scenarious, of various pricing of ABBV medication
    2. possible effect of litigation with ABBV-- financially, scenarios-- what is the financial impact in worst case scenario, what royalty GILD is to pay, for how long, how does this impact net revenue
    3. how do foreign markets compare--- we know UK and FR sales price is about 60% of that in the US, we know about Egypt and India (1/1000).

    I know a lot of these happenings are difficult to quantify, but this would be meaningful, in the form of scenarious, to come to anything harder facts."
    Dec 4, 2014. 07:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sovaldi Versus Abbvie Combination: Analysis Of Abbvie Combination Impact On Sovaldi Market Share [View article]
    "For a standard 12-week treatment course, Sovaldi will cost $84,000, or $1,000 per pill, per day. In contrast, Olysio prices out at $66,000 for a full treatment course, Incivek a hair over $49,000, and Victrelis anywhere from $31,000 to $53,000."

    http://bit.ly/11UokIv
    Dec 3, 2014. 11:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sovaldi Versus Abbvie Combination: Analysis Of Abbvie Combination Impact On Sovaldi Market Share [View article]
    There are conflicting sources as to price to treatment. It seems to me total price of treatment in the US is round the price of Sovaldi drug:
    http://www.natap.org

    For the unit cost of drugs (surprise, much less than wholesale price of Sovaldi):
    http://bit.ly/1lLVNLL
    As a rough estimate, direct cost of Sovaldi/Harvoni must be way below 10% of sales price.
    Dec 3, 2014. 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Could Hit $50 In 2015 [View article]
    I agree with some of the message, Bret. Stop pumping GILD also.

    And if you could answer messages people (incl. me) write to you, you would be thanked.

    E.
    Nov 29, 2014. 02:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: Is Gilead Taking The Lead? - A Bullish Fundamental & Algorithmic Perspective [View article]
    Not able to do primary school math. Check my comment at: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Nov 29, 2014. 08:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Harvoni prescriptions totaled ~4,400 last week [View news story]
    Avoid speculation. Do some calc. instead (still with a few assumptions):

    Nr. of prescription for week Nov. 21: 7813 ; 4366
    unit price (appr.), USD : 89250 ; 94500
    sales for week, mn USD: 697 ; 413
    sales for quarter *10 weeks, mn USD: 6973 ; 2888
    sales for quarter *11 weeks mn USD: 7670 ; 4538
    sales for total year *10*4, mn USD: 27892 ; 11552
    sales for total year *11*4, mn USD: 30682 ; 18154

    Accordingly, total annual sales 2015 could reach 30 bn USD on Sovaldi and Harvoni alone, way much higher than commonly quoted 12 bn estimate. You can adjust for various risks (WW3, UFOs landing,etc), and bring this value down by 20-40%, to get a still very pleasing figure, and then try and translate this into EPS. Will somebody do this extra work, rather than go on publishing pure speculations and nonsense (I like choco ice type) here please? Thank you.
    Nov 29, 2014. 08:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite Recent Hiccup, Gilead Is Still A Blue Chip Gem [View article]
    Dear Bret,

    A few questions to better direct to the facts:

    I badly miss a market size, saturation analysis of ALL the articles so far, with current price of alternative treatments: how many treatments in the past 9 months, total in the US to arrive at what percentage GILD Sovaldi market share; what is the impact of scenarios of various market shares on GILD net sales and net profit: GILD, ABBV and traditional treatments. What is worst case scenario if GILD loses patent litigation vs. ABBV (how much sales royalty to pay)?

    Respectfully,
    Ed
    Nov 25, 2014. 08:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Be Careful With Gilead - It May Be Time To Take Profits [View article]
    Thanks for keeping down price with your incoherent and dubious article.

    I have just bought some more GILD.
    Nov 25, 2014. 09:39 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Two Scenarios [View article]
    Russ has managed to move down the price a bit I see. (Not first time... :)
    Aug 25, 2014. 01:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market Loves Jazz Pharmaceuticals, Time To Sell [View article]
    I still think JAZZ has strong fundamentals, unlike most biotechs. It has dropped due to other biotech overvaluations and articles like this one (sadly, it is thinly traded, so price is easily influenced in short term).
    Apr 9, 2014. 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BofI pulls out of tumble after upgrade at RayJay [View news story]
    Mr Cramer suggested he would stay away from BOFI, claiming there are better deals in banking, the same day the article was published (author, Greenwhich.. had 55 followers).
    Mar 28, 2014. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
103 Comments
92 Likes