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john12345

john12345
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  • Annaly Has Bottomed: Multiple Reasons To Buy [View article]
    How do you get the dividends with calls/puts?
    Jan 10 12:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Key Stock Gushing Dividends [View article]
    With a 22% yield, there is plenty of risk here. Some comfort might be that price/book is 90%.

    Currently, the Fed plan is to stay the course with QE. I believe them (especially with their new leader). In approx 45 days, the dividend will reduce your basis by approx 6% (provides a little more comfort).

    Long WMC.
    Nov 12 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan: The Storm Before The Calm [View article]
    If all of your worries happened wouldn't gold rise? Look at the purchasing in India right now.
    Aug 29 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Market: 5 Stocks Impacted By News [View article]
    I'm a big TMUS fan. I live in a location where reception is weak and T-Mobile has a WiFi calling feature on some of their phones that works fine. In addition their pricing, contracts, and store employees are better than ATT and Verizon.

    Am I biased? Yes and happy. Do I own it? Yes and hopeful. I want more competition in the US mobile market.

    Disclosure: I own TMUS.
    Aug 9 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Market Does Not Like The Quarterly Results [View article]
    Why do banks keep lending to Linn? How do they get comfortable? They have seen more inside information than stock investors get.

    Something doesn't connect. If there was a great risk, banks would run. Or, they're just as stupid now as in 2005-2008.
    Aug 8 05:59 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com Creates 5,000 Jobs, Destroys 25,000 In The Process? [View article]
    AMZN keeps me on a psychiatric couch. Over the last three years their debt has risen and profits vanished. I understand cash flow, but I also seen the wicked side of excessive capital spending. Those warehouses may be built inexpensively but the equipment, software, and maintenance is not cheap. I've tried to decipher AMZN's financials with no comfort and many others have commented similarly.

    I was short a year ago with minor success. I am still watching like a buzzard for a good meal.
    Aug 5 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update To My 50 Predictions For 2013 [View article]
    Well, I like your honesty and some of your work. Unfortunately, your ego might be the weakness. Did you really believe you could provide good financial information on 50 stocks, bonds, interest rates, Euro markets, dictator deaths, etc? Specialize in something and get real good.
    Aug 4 07:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Dividends Should Benefit From The Current Interest Rate Environment [View article]
    Poor example. Banks are completely different business model although they can be compared with mReits. You can also compare mReits to hot dog stands.

    Banks are depositary institutions with an entire different business model. And don't forget, at every financial collapse, the banks are in the middle of the mess. Think Long Term Capital Management, Brazil, Russian bonds, mortgage collapse, etc. Banks never get the risk correct.
    Jul 3 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Dividends Should Benefit From The Current Interest Rate Environment [View article]
    OK. But I think you are all over thinking the issue. These mReits are creations of financial wizards and highly leveraged. Sorry, make that HIGHLY LEVERAGED!!! If they can make high yields (like in the past) during low interest rates, I find it difficult to believe they can provide high yields during a higher interest rate environment which is coming sometime.

    I used to have some comfort that book value might give the investor downside protection, but that has clearly gone out the window with the current drop in the mReit stock values. Further, don't forget you are in a game where the FED makes the rules and timing. Good Luck to all.

    No current mReit positions.
    Jul 3 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackRock Kelso Capital: Is It Better Than Fifth Street Finance? [View article]
    I've been in BKCC for a long time. I've had it in dividend reinvestment and it's been fine. BKCC is having pains currently but should be able to improve; historically the management has been good. This article makes FSC look better and I think I will consider buying some shares.

    I like the BDC space better than mortgages. Good work.
    Apr 24 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Apple Repurchase Shares? [View article]
    Well, I'm positive on AAPL's long term outlook, but not too excited about the next 2-3 years. Cook, competition, pricing, and products are all showing weakness. But AAPL is still an outstanding company with as much potential in their markets as any of their competitors.

    My opinion is that AAPL should map a long term financial strategy with a significant debt plan (borrow $200 billion or more if possible) and a long term purchase program of AAPL stock. Long term interest rates are the lowest in 50 years and Apple should capitalize on the opportunity. Buffett, Exxon, IBM and others have proven the value of buying stock over paying dividends.
    Apr 23 01:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't sell into the current weakness, Wells Fargo tells gold investors; instead, use any eventual price rebound to reduce exposure to gold, silver and precious metals to no more than 2% of portfolio value. And some traders see a rebound coming. Market data has front-month at-the-money calls priced ~$5.45/contract on the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD -8.5%) vs. at-the-money puts going for ~$4.95. [View news story]
    I don't understand gold. But that doesn't stop me from embracing gold more than fiat money printed in Washington. Some time in the future this financial nonsense in Washington is going to have to be settled up. Then I think gold will shine brighter than ever (if they don't confiscate it again). This drop may be a good time to buy more.
    Apr 15 06:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When The Fed Stops Buying These mREITs Could Be Flying [View article]
    These mReits are packagers of financial instruments. If interest rates rise, this carry trade gets hit. Every layer of lending will have higher interest rates and ultimately slow down loan origination while other debt looks better (corporate, state, federal, etc). Higher rates immediately reprices existing bonds to higher yields and lower prices. I don't see any way the mortgage reits can go anywhere but down when rates rise.

    The only important question is WHEN will Bernanke shift to higher rates. When the change occurs, a readjustment of all financial instruments follows. It will be adverse to mReits since higher interest rates will increase the borrower's costs.

    If you don't believe it ask yourself how this happy circumstance got started -- low interest rates providing incredible leverage. High interest rates will reverse the process.

    Don't worry about it. When rates go up, all the future US govt. debt and current maturities that get rolled over get higher rates. The interest costs will crowd out defense, healthcare, schools, and more. That's when to worry.

    Short US Treasuries. Yes. I am talking my book. But I also have skin in the game.
    Apr 9 01:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • KKR, Blackstone And Carlyle: Which Is Priced Lowest? [View article]
    Hmmm. I was hoping for a little more. These private equity companies have considerable future earnings potential, but it's almost impossible to quantify. Each year they get a 2% (or more) management fee and when their partnerships sell out of their positions they pickup 20% of the net profits. The only thing that the financial statements include is their 2% income. The value of the future investments can't be included in their statements and are unknown until they are sold.

    One can easily see by the lifestyle of the top people that they are making a lot of money. That's about the best I think we can expect.

    Long KKR. Looking closely at CG and maybe BX.
    Mar 31 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Is Star Wars Worth? [View article]
    You left out Jabba the Hut. Clearly one of the best villains ever. Every time a see a fat person eating more fat, I think of Jabba.

    With young children to grandchildren, I've seen just about everything Disney offers (film, theme parks, cruises). If their management stays strong, their franchise will endure.
    Mar 11 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
314 Comments
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