BlackRock Kelso Capital: Is It Better Than Fifth Street Finance? [View article]
I've been in BKCC for a long time. I've had it in dividend reinvestment and it's been fine. BKCC is having pains currently but should be able to improve; historically the management has been good. This article makes FSC look better and I think I will consider buying some shares.
I like the BDC space better than mortgages. Good work.
Well, I'm positive on AAPL's long term outlook, but not too excited about the next 2-3 years. Cook, competition, pricing, and products are all showing weakness. But AAPL is still an outstanding company with as much potential in their markets as any of their competitors.
My opinion is that AAPL should map a long term financial strategy with a significant debt plan (borrow $200 billion or more if possible) and a long term purchase program of AAPL stock. Long term interest rates are the lowest in 50 years and Apple should capitalize on the opportunity. Buffett, Exxon, IBM and others have proven the value of buying stock over paying dividends.
Don't sell into the current weakness, Wells Fargo tells gold investors; instead, use any eventual price rebound to reduce exposure to gold, silver and precious metals to no more than 2% of portfolio value. And some traders see a rebound coming. Market data has front-month at-the-money calls priced ~$5.45/contract on the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD -8.5%) vs. at-the-money puts going for ~$4.95. [View news story]
I don't understand gold. But that doesn't stop me from embracing gold more than fiat money printed in Washington. Some time in the future this financial nonsense in Washington is going to have to be settled up. Then I think gold will shine brighter than ever (if they don't confiscate it again). This drop may be a good time to buy more.
When The Fed Stops Buying These mREITs Could Be Flying [View article]
These mReits are packagers of financial instruments. If interest rates rise, this carry trade gets hit. Every layer of lending will have higher interest rates and ultimately slow down loan origination while other debt looks better (corporate, state, federal, etc). Higher rates immediately reprices existing bonds to higher yields and lower prices. I don't see any way the mortgage reits can go anywhere but down when rates rise.
The only important question is WHEN will Bernanke shift to higher rates. When the change occurs, a readjustment of all financial instruments follows. It will be adverse to mReits since higher interest rates will increase the borrower's costs.
If you don't believe it ask yourself how this happy circumstance got started -- low interest rates providing incredible leverage. High interest rates will reverse the process.
Don't worry about it. When rates go up, all the future US govt. debt and current maturities that get rolled over get higher rates. The interest costs will crowd out defense, healthcare, schools, and more. That's when to worry.
Short US Treasuries. Yes. I am talking my book. But I also have skin in the game.
KKR, Blackstone And Carlyle: Which Is Priced Lowest? [View article]
Hmmm. I was hoping for a little more. These private equity companies have considerable future earnings potential, but it's almost impossible to quantify. Each year they get a 2% (or more) management fee and when their partnerships sell out of their positions they pickup 20% of the net profits. The only thing that the financial statements include is their 2% income. The value of the future investments can't be included in their statements and are unknown until they are sold.
One can easily see by the lifestyle of the top people that they are making a lot of money. That's about the best I think we can expect.
You left out Jabba the Hut. Clearly one of the best villains ever. Every time a see a fat person eating more fat, I think of Jabba.
With young children to grandchildren, I've seen just about everything Disney offers (film, theme parks, cruises). If their management stays strong, their franchise will endure.
Pengrowth Energy: A 53% Discount To Book Value Plus A 12% Yield [View article]
Commentors are correct. Canada has been one of the few countries not taken down by the 2008 housing blow up and sovereign debt fiasco worldwide. The Canadian dollar has been one of the strongest lately.
Nortel and Rimm are not any different than many US firms that can't survive when technology or other creative destruction occurs. Remember Motorola? It melted down and Google is now keeping it on life support.
Canadian medical system is highly critiqued by everyone, but the citizens seem to love it.
I wish Canada was warmer so I could spend more time in a beautiful country. Oops, that's not politically correct (global warming).
Oversold, 8.78% Dividend Payer Vanguard Natural Resources Is Thinking Long Term - You Should Too [View article]
The driver for higher interest rates may be in propping up currencies. Right now, most countries (like Japan) are competing with others to keep their currencies cheap and trade account favorable. The currency/trade war may put some countries in a bind that won't allow financing their debt, and consequently require higher interest rates. Then it's game over. The markets will take over and not the central bankers. Make sure you're near the exits.
Amazon's Circus: Good, Bad, And Ugly [View article]
I am a big fan of Amazon as a customer. Loved the company from the start and buy something monthly or more. However, I am now short AMZN the stock.
The above article and comments covers it all, but changing the metrics to feel better doesn't do it for me. ROI, PE, margins, growth, etc are core statistics to watch for any investment. AMZN is slipping. The company is burning cash in capital expenditures supported by slimmer margins.
Amazon stock price will fall. I hope I don't fall sooner.
Reality check time!! Trees can't grow to the sky. Apple is doing fine, but it's just difficult to come up with new products that have annual revenue potential of $20-30 Billion+ and add that to a dozen other high revenue products that are at more mature stages of growth and development. Some parts of Apple's product line are going to get a dose of creative destruction such as ipads and apps vs computers and software.
The future of AAPL is probably slower growth and probably lower margins, but can still outperform competitors and be the envy of most other US companies.
Interactive Brokers Group: The Online Trading Evolution [View article]
I've had an account with IAB for three+ years. The platform, margin, interest rates, transaction fees, etc are the best I've seen or used. I am a little concerned this company can blow up, but I guess it's not creating enough fear for me so far. I'm surprised about the above comments on their service, because I always get a knowledgeable person to help with issues. The company does waste a lot of time recording deposits and paper work.
I never considered owning the stock. There's a partnership of owners that takes a substantial amount of the profit from the operation.
The point is this: you purchase Tesla stock or a Tesla vehicle to let you show your wealth, help the environment, and not make sense financially or environmentally. And you feel good. .....and you're a fool.
The biggest problem with electric vehicles is the battery. Many people think that the battery problem has been solved or will be solved. Batteries were one of the biggest hurdles with space programs. Commercial and NASA battery efforts have pushed the boundaries to the limit. The solution is still further in the future.
Please put more money and investment in the company but don't ask the taxpayer to match.
I'm getting worried about how much longer the mReits can keep the carry trade afloat.
The mortgage reits buy mortgages from Fannie Mae and other govt guaranteed sources. Now, the Fed is committing to major purchases of the same securities. It seems to me the Fed purchases will increase demand for the bonds which will make bond prices higher and yields lower. Won't the mortgage reits be squeezed out by this Fed purchasing and consequently reduce the yields of the mReits? If so, this bubble will burst.
BlackRock Kelso Capital: Is It Better Than Fifth Street Finance? [View article]
I like the BDC space better than mortgages. Good work.
Should Apple Repurchase Shares? [View article]
My opinion is that AAPL should map a long term financial strategy with a significant debt plan (borrow $200 billion or more if possible) and a long term purchase program of AAPL stock. Long term interest rates are the lowest in 50 years and Apple should capitalize on the opportunity. Buffett, Exxon, IBM and others have proven the value of buying stock over paying dividends.
Don't sell into the current weakness, Wells Fargo tells gold investors; instead, use any eventual price rebound to reduce exposure to gold, silver and precious metals to no more than 2% of portfolio value. And some traders see a rebound coming. Market data has front-month at-the-money calls priced ~$5.45/contract on the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD -8.5%) vs. at-the-money puts going for ~$4.95. [View news story]
When The Fed Stops Buying These mREITs Could Be Flying [View article]
The only important question is WHEN will Bernanke shift to higher rates. When the change occurs, a readjustment of all financial instruments follows. It will be adverse to mReits since higher interest rates will increase the borrower's costs.
If you don't believe it ask yourself how this happy circumstance got started -- low interest rates providing incredible leverage. High interest rates will reverse the process.
Don't worry about it. When rates go up, all the future US govt. debt and current maturities that get rolled over get higher rates. The interest costs will crowd out defense, healthcare, schools, and more. That's when to worry.
Short US Treasuries. Yes. I am talking my book. But I also have skin in the game.
KKR, Blackstone And Carlyle: Which Is Priced Lowest? [View article]
One can easily see by the lifestyle of the top people that they are making a lot of money. That's about the best I think we can expect.
Long KKR. Looking closely at CG and maybe BX.
How Much Is Star Wars Worth? [View article]
With young children to grandchildren, I've seen just about everything Disney offers (film, theme parks, cruises). If their management stays strong, their franchise will endure.
Pengrowth Energy: A 53% Discount To Book Value Plus A 12% Yield [View article]
Nortel and Rimm are not any different than many US firms that can't survive when technology or other creative destruction occurs. Remember Motorola? It melted down and Google is now keeping it on life support.
Canadian medical system is highly critiqued by everyone, but the citizens seem to love it.
I wish Canada was warmer so I could spend more time in a beautiful country. Oops, that's not politically correct (global warming).
Courage Where Art Thou? I Want To Short Amazon [View article]
Just to complete my psychosis (loss of contact with reality), I love the company and use it once or twice a month.
Short AMZN
Oversold, 8.78% Dividend Payer Vanguard Natural Resources Is Thinking Long Term - You Should Too [View article]
Amazon's Circus: Good, Bad, And Ugly [View article]
The above article and comments covers it all, but changing the metrics to feel better doesn't do it for me. ROI, PE, margins, growth, etc are core statistics to watch for any investment. AMZN is slipping. The company is burning cash in capital expenditures supported by slimmer margins.
Amazon stock price will fall. I hope I don't fall sooner.
Is There A Worm In The Apple? [View article]
The future of AAPL is probably slower growth and probably lower margins, but can still outperform competitors and be the envy of most other US companies.
Interactive Brokers Group: The Online Trading Evolution [View article]
I never considered owning the stock. There's a partnership of owners that takes a substantial amount of the profit from the operation.
Amazon's Financial Pressures May Force AWS Spin-Off [View article]
The True Genius Of Tesla [View article]
The biggest problem with electric vehicles is the battery. Many people think that the battery problem has been solved or will be solved. Batteries were one of the biggest hurdles with space programs. Commercial and NASA battery efforts have pushed the boundaries to the limit. The solution is still further in the future.
Please put more money and investment in the company but don't ask the taxpayer to match.
Best mREITs For 2013 [View article]
The mortgage reits buy mortgages from Fannie Mae and other govt guaranteed sources. Now, the Fed is committing to major purchases of the same securities. It seems to me the Fed purchases will increase demand for the bonds which will make bond prices higher and yields lower. Won't the mortgage reits be squeezed out by this Fed purchasing and consequently reduce the yields of the mReits? If so, this bubble will burst.