john12345

Industrial Production Is Growing but Where Are All the Products Going?

Right or wrong I decided long ago to not get too attached to macro numbers. Suppose a Chinese made T-shirt is sold in the US for $20.00. Economy sours and shirt isn't shipped, it's purchased locally in China for $5.00. Is China better or worse off? I say it makes no difference to China as long as the same volume of shirts is sold. You can see the opposing arguments below.

Cash for Clunkers May Cost Up to $45,354 Per Vehicle

It's clear to me. The incremental analysis makes sense and even a recession adjustment won't materially change the analysis or point by the author. An alternative viewpoint is that the clunker plan is borrowing sales from the future. That will require more subsidy to replace. But I am not a liberal so I don't understand current economics. No matter what, this is just more subsidy to the Detroit neanderthals. And we are not near the end.

Books: Bear Stearns' Death Comes Alive in Kelly's 'Street Fighters'

I'd be interested what readers say about this book and "House of Cards" which chronicled both the demise of Bear Stearns as well as a lot of it's history. There is no question that Bear had a full cast of real characters and it makes good reading.

Reich Is Right: Watch Your Wallets

Reich is correct but in a narrow argument. The US just can't continue to have consumers and government borrow and spend just to keep the economy and China happy. What's wrong with saving instead of spending and borrowing?

Apple's History Puts Its Present into Question

Boy. You're in trouble now. Never criticize Apple. There are too many emotional fanboys.

Forget Goldman, Start Worrying About the Government

Well done. You are right on most points. Remember, Goldman didn't create the Washington system, they just recognized it and operated accordingly -- and very successfully.

The simplest but not yet popular way out of this mess in Washington is term limits.

Bankslaughter

The real issue here is risk, and that is rarely discussed with any common sense currently. In the future, with more effort and focus on enterprise risk, there may be better analysis of the risk that institutions undertake. Otherwise, I predict another financial crisis within 10 years after the current one is fixed. That's just what bankers do -- can you add to this list: So American bonds, Russian bonds, Long Term Capital Mgt, Internet crash, Subprime, Derivatives. I predict the financial experts will come up with a new product in the future that breaks the banks or financial system again. Tighter regulation and supervision, higher capital ratios, and better risk analysis is the only hope for preventing a fiasco in the future.

10 Reasons Not to Buy Apple

Hao Jin:

Never criticize AAPL on a public forum. There are too many fanboys and you will be flamed forever. Your list of issues is sort of tired. They are issues and worries that are speculative and sound like the list that a venture capital guy says to a person seeking money for his idea. My advice is to go to an Apple store. It will be packed. And we're in a recession. Apple is the best of breed for now. Any drop in price will be driven by market drop and not Apple demise.

Why AT&T Is a Strong Growth Story

Peter Lynch recommended visiting the company's operations and becoming familiar with it's operations. He was very successful with Dunkin Donuts etc for a long period. I suggest you visit an ATT outlet and try to get service of any kind. For more fun, go to their website or call them. Then call a psychiatrist. This is one of the problems when stock analysis looks at financial info and data and avoids the reality of where the rubber meets the road. ATT will drive me to Pre, Rim or other in spite of the iPhone's great features. By the way, can you help me get the email to work on my iPhone?

Oil Futures: It's Not Manipulation, It's Stupidity

I saw Cramer's rant and it made no sense at all. What is the difference between the price of a stock getting higher than the value of the underlying company (think internet 2000 and 2008 stock prices) and the price of a commodity future exceeding the value of the underlying commodity? Also, explain how the trader actually executes the manipulation of the commodity. Remember, the bad guy Cramer rants is neither a producer nor a consumer of the commodity. He can only put his money on the line and ? (what?). I'm waiting for Cramer to explain the manipulation by putting his money on the line while we are permitted to watch in real time. Actually, I'd take a verified video of the same if Cramer claims he needs privacy to execute the maneuver.

What RIM Didn't Tell Us When It Bought Dash

I will defer to experts, but I think that tax losses can't be used that easily. The loss is only usable to offset Dash's future profits as a subsidiary of Rim and must be carefully segregated from Rim profits. Additional rules permit some use of the tax losses, but they can only be used over a period of years or are lost entirely. Disclaimer: I may be out of date on taxes.

What Went Wrong with California, New York, and New Jersey?

Fine summary but you are probably preaching to the choir on this site. You need to get this in the progressive and liberal blogs and media.

Gold Doesn’t Care If It’s IN-flation or DE-flation

Money (like dollars) are supposed to represent a store of value and medium of exchange. Typically, over time the central government erodes the value to finance wars, social programs, or other poorly conceived plans. Gold then surfaces as the medium to act in place of the government's paper. At that time, it will have higher purchasing power than the fiat currency but will likely be clumsy to exchange. At that time, a holder will be able to provide for his family and trade his gold for essentials. I don't know if this makes gold an investment or just a disaster preparation much like water and freeze dried food. As the original article shows, there is little correlation of gold to other investment vehicles.

Potential COMEX Gold Fail

I didn't know where this article and blog was headed but it seems to have pointed to the federal government as the root of the problem. A friend of mine is circulating a proposal with an interesting twist. Think about it before you reject it. His idea is a constitutional convention with only one item on it's agenda -- term limits. This is the best way to improve governance at the national level -- provide a convenient way replace the incumbents who aren't getting the job done. This also provides a path for interested citizens to gain public office since many are frozen until some long term Senator or Congressman dies, thus allowing governors, mayors, attorney generals and others an opportunity to rise up the ladder to higher office. Another benefit of the idea is that you don't even need to call Washington to implement it. No national office holders have any control or say in the process. It's the states that control constitutional amendments. The agenda for the convention would be term limits only, thus avoiding partisan, social, economic, and other issues which may make the result worse than the present situation.

The Dollar Ain't Picture Perfect, But What's Better?

Money is supposed to be a store of value and a medium for transactions so we don't have to trade corn, products, servics, etc in some gigantic barter system. Governments all over the world have strayed from keeping the value stable by fighting wars, social programs, or other political driven purposes. I don't really want to mess with gold, but it seems to have retained it's position as a commodity that retains it's value over long time periods. Gold certificates that can be audited and verified, seem to be a solution. To fit the international needs today, that system would drive gold to the stratosphere in price. Conclusion: there ain't no easy way out. But there is a strong argument for each country to keep it's currency strong and stable.