The October 2008 bottom in the PM sector is the template showing how the current work in progress is likely to unfold. After hard selloffs, the bottoms in 10/2008 and in 5/2012 were signaled when the 5 day back prices on gold, silver, GDX and GDX/gold were all exceeded. In 10/2008, gold price remained near flat while GDX rose, then drifted lower into a second low about one month later that exceeded the first low. Per the template, the second and final low in GDX should occur in less than 2 weeks from now. Here's the 2008 bottom chart:
Gold's Sharp Rebound Confirms Bottom Is In [View article]
Happy, you are correct about my failure with charts, which helps explain how I lost 90% in the past 2 years, from $600k to $62k. I also enjoy gardening.
I'm long NUGT (3 times levered GDX). I see the wave structure from the recent GDX bottom as completing wave 4 down, with a target of 18 for the next wave 5 going up. Comments are coveted, thanks.
Gold's Sharp Rebound Confirms Bottom Is In [View article]
When gold, silver, GDX and GDX/gold all exceeded their 5 day back prices, the bottom was confirmed at the Oct 2008 and the May 2012 bottoms. This signal was given on 4/24 and 4/25. Here's a chart:
Gold Against Paper, The Crash In Mining Shares And Economic Decline [View article]
Emmet is preaching to the choir. Nary a dissenting comment before mine. He warns miners should be no more than 7% of assets, For me, they're 450% of assets by being 100% long GDX calls. (My account magnifies the movement in GDX by 4.5). Why be so fool hardy, you ask? A reliable sign at completion of past major bottoms has been that gold, silver, GDX, and GDX/gold all exceed their 5 day back prices. This happened yesterday and today per the chart:
Good Riddance To The Weak Hands Selling GLD Shares [View article]
During selloffs going into major PM bottoms in Oct/2008 and May/2012, the bottoms were completed when gold, silver, GDX and GDX/gold all exceeded their 5 day back prices. This signal occurred today. Moreover, outperformance by GDX up 6.74% and GDXJ up 7.12% was impressive vs gold up 1.09% and silver up 1.08%. Here's a chart: http://bit.ly/12jz3rJ
Gold Rolls Over After Breaking Key Level [View article]
Comparing the 12 day downleg into the mid May 2012 bottom with the current 15 day downleg the ratio of the change in the price of gold for the current interval/mid May interval is 0.931. For GDX it's 0.814. For Silver it's 0.711. For the silver miners (SIL) it's 0.434.
I don't think these data tell where's the bottom of this downleg. But they do show that silver and the miners have gained relative strength since May 2012. Relative strength in the miners bodes well for a more powerful and enduring rally from this bottom area.
Here's the gold chart that includes the above referenced intervals.
Gold Rolls Over After Breaking Key Level [View article]
Thanks filipo
2 Cr 4:8 "We are perplexed, but not in despair."
I'm not giving up on NUGT. It's maximum volatility offers maximum opportunity. NUGT gives about 8X leverage on gold with only a small amount of decay. The GDX 50 calls give about 12X leverage on gold.
Trendlines holding from 2 to 13 days on minute basis charts have been giving good trading signals over recent months. I've lacked the courage and conviction to trade more than a small fraction of my account, else performance would be less dismal.
Gold Rolls Over After Breaking Key Level [View article]
4) Liquidation selling has not started.
That statement should make me fearful, but by now I'm accustomed to losing in PMs. My account has gone from $600k to $83k. Lost 200k in levered silver AGQ in 5/11, another 200k in AGQ in 9/11, Switched to levered gold miner NUGT and GDX calls in 1/13, losing another $100k+ down to $83k.
Just wondering is anyone has a worse record, or if I can claim the crown for champion of fools.
Monetary Base Signals Renewed Rally For Gold [View article]
I'm not certain the bottom is near for the PM sector complex. But the volume profiles on the potential mini double bottoms are encouraging. All the major charts: GOLD, GLD, GDX, SILVER, SLV, SIL have less volume on the last 3 down days than on either the down legs into the first bottom or the up legs out of it. GOLD's chart linked below is typical.
Unlike you profiteers, i'm down 33% YTD, mostly in NUGT. I was caught in a value trap. Even Warren Buffet sometimes misperceives value...saying you should be able to tolerate a 50% draw down. The big loser for me was being 100% long AGQ in Sept 2011 when i lost 50% ($200k) in 2 days back to back.
Are Gold And Gold Mining Stocks Undervalued? [View article]
Confession is good for the soul. I've been buying 100 or more shares of NUGT every nickel down during the last 3 days. My loss on 9000 shares is 17%. Also sitting on a big loss on calls on 4500 shares of GDX bought on the last 3 days. No pain..no gain. My biggest rewards have come on the plays with the most short term buyer's remorse.
This is a long thread, so it's profitable to measure sentiment. The gold bashers are getting the most " likes". This is a reversal from about 2 weeks ago, and bodes well for higher gold prices. In the 12 years since the gold bull began, the low has happened in january in 7 years, and in February in 2. Save the 2008 crash year, April was the latest timing of the low.
Gold: To Buy Or Not To Buy? [View article]
showing how the current work in progress is likely to unfold.
After hard selloffs, the bottoms in 10/2008 and in 5/2012
were signaled when the 5 day back prices on gold, silver,
GDX and GDX/gold were all exceeded. In 10/2008, gold
price remained near flat while GDX rose, then drifted lower
into a second low about one month later that exceeded
the first low. Per the template, the second and final
low in GDX should occur in less than 2 weeks from now.
Here's the 2008 bottom chart:
http://bit.ly/ZYHQz9
Gold's Sharp Rebound Confirms Bottom Is In [View article]
which helps explain how I lost 90% in the past 2 years,
from $600k to $62k. I also enjoy gardening.
I'm long NUGT (3 times levered GDX). I see the wave structure from
the recent GDX bottom as completing wave 4 down, with a target
of 18 for the next wave 5 going up. Comments are coveted, thanks.
http://bit.ly/ZT95rT
Gold's Sharp Rebound Confirms Bottom Is In [View article]
back prices, the bottom was confirmed at the Oct 2008 and the
May 2012 bottoms. This signal was given on 4/24 and 4/25.
Here's a chart:
http://bit.ly/12jz3rJ
Gold Against Paper, The Crash In Mining Shares And Economic Decline [View article]
before mine. He warns miners should be no more than 7%
of assets, For me, they're 450% of assets by being 100%
long GDX calls. (My account magnifies the movement in GDX
by 4.5). Why be so fool hardy, you ask? A reliable sign at
completion of past major bottoms has been that gold, silver,
GDX, and GDX/gold all exceed their 5 day back prices.
This happened yesterday and today per the chart:
http://bit.ly/12jz3rJ
Good Riddance To The Weak Hands Selling GLD Shares [View article]
the bottoms were completed when gold, silver, GDX and
GDX/gold all exceeded their 5 day back prices. This signal
occurred today. Moreover, outperformance by GDX up 6.74%
and GDXJ up 7.12% was impressive vs gold up 1.09% and
silver up 1.08%. Here's a chart:
http://bit.ly/12jz3rJ
Gold Update: Catching A Bounce [View article]
They've either sold and left the building,
or decided to hold...no matter what happens.
Shorting gold miners, when by most fundamental measures,
they are more undervalued than ever before, makes no
sense.
Gold Rolls Over After Breaking Key Level [View article]
with the current 15 day downleg the ratio of the change in the
price of gold for the current interval/mid May interval is 0.931.
For GDX it's 0.814. For Silver it's 0.711. For the silver miners
(SIL) it's 0.434.
I don't think these data tell where's the bottom of this downleg.
But they do show that silver and the miners have gained
relative strength since May 2012. Relative strength in the
miners bodes well for a more powerful and enduring rally
from this bottom area.
Here's the gold chart that includes the above referenced intervals.
http://bit.ly/11c4V0Q
Gold Rolls Over After Breaking Key Level [View article]
2 Cr 4:8 "We are perplexed, but not in despair."
I'm not giving up on NUGT. It's maximum volatility offers
maximum opportunity. NUGT gives about 8X leverage on gold
with only a small amount of decay. The GDX 50 calls give about 12X leverage on gold.
Trendlines holding from 2 to 13 days on minute basis charts
have been giving good trading signals over recent months.
I've lacked the courage and conviction to trade more than a
small fraction of my account, else performance would be
less dismal.
Weekly basis performance:
Week Ending % chg in NUGT % chg in my acct
3/21 6.47 6.11
3/28 -2.60 -2.64
4/5 -21.8 -15.1
4/12 -24.0 -18.8
Gold Rolls Over After Breaking Key Level [View article]
That statement should make me fearful, but by now I'm
accustomed to losing in PMs. My account has gone from
$600k to $83k. Lost 200k in levered silver AGQ in 5/11,
another 200k in AGQ in 9/11, Switched to levered gold
miner NUGT and GDX calls in 1/13, losing another $100k+
down to $83k.
Just wondering is anyone has a worse record,
or if I can claim the crown for champion of fools.
Monetary Base Signals Renewed Rally For Gold [View article]
But the volume profiles on the potential mini double bottoms
are encouraging. All the major charts: GOLD, GLD, GDX,
SILVER, SLV, SIL have less volume on the last 3 down days
than on either the down legs into the first bottom or the up legs
out of it. GOLD's chart linked below is typical.
http://bit.ly/WzL6wC
The Coming Gold Bounce [View article]
I was caught in a value trap. Even Warren Buffet sometimes
misperceives value...saying you should be able to tolerate a 50%
draw down. The big loser for me was being 100% long AGQ
in Sept 2011 when i lost 50% ($200k) in 2 days back to back.
Silver: Near-Term Bullishness Possible, But Lower Levels Still Likely [View article]
speculators looks very bearish to me.
http://bit.ly/V8abkq
Silver: Near-Term Bullishness Possible, But Lower Levels Still Likely [View article]
"I do not have a strong directional bias for the the near term until
the next cues as seen from the market."
Considering the increasingly bearish COT for the last 2 weeks,
has it become more likely that a quick plunge will occur?
Are Gold And Gold Mining Stocks Undervalued? [View article]
shares of NUGT every nickel down during the last 3 days.
My loss on 9000 shares is 17%. Also sitting on a big loss on
calls on 4500 shares of GDX bought on the last 3 days.
No pain..no gain. My biggest rewards have come on the plays
with the most short term buyer's remorse.
Gold Is Over - Or Is It? [View article]
The gold bashers are getting the most " likes".
This is a reversal from about 2 weeks ago,
and bodes well for higher gold prices.
In the 12 years since the gold bull began,
the low has happened in january in 7 years, and in February in 2.
Save the 2008 crash year, April was the latest timing of the low.