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wilburdobson

wilburdobson
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  • Silver - Potential Whipsaws Ahead [View article]
    Antonio,

    Apologies for my rudeness. You suggest selling to gain from
    lower prices, and buying in case of higher prices ahead.
    But selling options in case of sideways movement.
    Where's the beef?
    Tell us something which we do not already know.
    May 26 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: To Buy Or Not To Buy? [View article]
    The October 2008 bottom in the PM sector is the template
    showing how the current work in progress is likely to unfold.
    After hard selloffs, the bottoms in 10/2008 and in 5/2012
    were signaled when the 5 day back prices on gold, silver,
    GDX and GDX/gold were all exceeded. In 10/2008, gold
    price remained near flat while GDX rose, then drifted lower
    into a second low about one month later that exceeded
    the first low. Per the template, the second and final
    low in GDX should occur in less than 2 weeks from now.
    Here's the 2008 bottom chart:

    http://bit.ly/ZYHQz9
    May 2 07:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold's Sharp Rebound Confirms Bottom Is In [View article]
    Happy, you are correct about my failure with charts,
    which helps explain how I lost 90% in the past 2 years,
    from $600k to $62k. I also enjoy gardening.

    I'm long NUGT (3 times levered GDX). I see the wave structure from
    the recent GDX bottom as completing wave 4 down, with a target
    of 18 for the next wave 5 going up. Comments are coveted, thanks.

    http://bit.ly/ZT95rT
    Apr 27 12:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold's Sharp Rebound Confirms Bottom Is In [View article]
    When gold, silver, GDX and GDX/gold all exceeded their 5 day
    back prices, the bottom was confirmed at the Oct 2008 and the
    May 2012 bottoms. This signal was given on 4/24 and 4/25.
    Here's a chart:

    http://bit.ly/12jz3rJ
    Apr 26 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Against Paper, The Crash In Mining Shares And Economic Decline [View article]
    Emmet is preaching to the choir. Nary a dissenting comment
    before mine. He warns miners should be no more than 7%
    of assets, For me, they're 450% of assets by being 100%
    long GDX calls. (My account magnifies the movement in GDX
    by 4.5). Why be so fool hardy, you ask? A reliable sign at
    completion of past major bottoms has been that gold, silver,
    GDX, and GDX/gold all exceed their 5 day back prices.
    This happened yesterday and today per the chart:

    http://bit.ly/12jz3rJ
    Apr 25 10:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Good Riddance To The Weak Hands Selling GLD Shares [View article]
    During selloffs going into major PM bottoms in Oct/2008 and May/2012,
    the bottoms were completed when gold, silver, GDX and
    GDX/gold all exceeded their 5 day back prices. This signal
    occurred today. Moreover, outperformance by GDX up 6.74%
    and GDXJ up 7.12% was impressive vs gold up 1.09% and
    silver up 1.08%. Here's a chart:
    http://bit.ly/12jz3rJ
    Apr 24 08:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Update: Catching A Bounce [View article]
    No comments implies everyone has firm plans for PMs.
    They've either sold and left the building,
    or decided to hold...no matter what happens.

    Shorting gold miners, when by most fundamental measures,
    they are more undervalued than ever before, makes no
    sense.
    Apr 16 08:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Rolls Over After Breaking Key Level [View article]
    Comparing the 12 day downleg into the mid May 2012 bottom
    with the current 15 day downleg the ratio of the change in the
    price of gold for the current interval/mid May interval is 0.931.
    For GDX it's 0.814. For Silver it's 0.711. For the silver miners
    (SIL) it's 0.434.

    I don't think these data tell where's the bottom of this downleg.
    But they do show that silver and the miners have gained
    relative strength since May 2012. Relative strength in the
    miners bodes well for a more powerful and enduring rally
    from this bottom area.

    Here's the gold chart that includes the above referenced intervals.

    http://bit.ly/11c4V0Q
    Apr 14 06:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Rolls Over After Breaking Key Level [View article]
    Thanks filipo

    2 Cr 4:8 "We are perplexed, but not in despair."

    I'm not giving up on NUGT. It's maximum volatility offers
    maximum opportunity. NUGT gives about 8X leverage on gold
    with only a small amount of decay. The GDX 50 calls give about 12X leverage on gold.

    Trendlines holding from 2 to 13 days on minute basis charts
    have been giving good trading signals over recent months.
    I've lacked the courage and conviction to trade more than a
    small fraction of my account, else performance would be
    less dismal.

    Weekly basis performance:

    Week Ending % chg in NUGT % chg in my acct

    3/21 6.47 6.11
    3/28 -2.60 -2.64
    4/5 -21.8 -15.1
    4/12 -24.0 -18.8
    Apr 13 04:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Rolls Over After Breaking Key Level [View article]
    4) Liquidation selling has not started.

    That statement should make me fearful, but by now I'm
    accustomed to losing in PMs. My account has gone from
    $600k to $83k. Lost 200k in levered silver AGQ in 5/11,
    another 200k in AGQ in 9/11, Switched to levered gold
    miner NUGT and GDX calls in 1/13, losing another $100k+
    down to $83k.

    Just wondering is anyone has a worse record,
    or if I can claim the crown for champion of fools.
    Apr 13 11:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Monetary Base Signals Renewed Rally For Gold [View article]
    I'm not certain the bottom is near for the PM sector complex.
    But the volume profiles on the potential mini double bottoms
    are encouraging. All the major charts: GOLD, GLD, GDX,
    SILVER, SLV, SIL have less volume on the last 3 down days
    than on either the down legs into the first bottom or the up legs
    out of it. GOLD's chart linked below is typical.

    http://bit.ly/WzL6wC
    Mar 2 07:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Gold Bounce [View article]
    Unlike you profiteers, i'm down 33% YTD, mostly in NUGT.
    I was caught in a value trap. Even Warren Buffet sometimes
    misperceives value...saying you should be able to tolerate a 50%
    draw down. The big loser for me was being 100% long AGQ
    in Sept 2011 when i lost 50% ($200k) in 2 days back to back.
    Feb 21 07:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver: Near-Term Bullishness Possible, But Lower Levels Still Likely [View article]
    The big increase in the percent bullishness of the large
    speculators looks very bearish to me.

    http://bit.ly/V8abkq
    Feb 10 05:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver: Near-Term Bullishness Possible, But Lower Levels Still Likely [View article]
    Thanks for your update, Avi. You wrote:
    "I do not have a strong directional bias for the the near term until
    the next cues as seen from the market."

    Considering the increasingly bearish COT for the last 2 weeks,
    has it become more likely that a quick plunge will occur?
    Feb 10 05:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Gold And Gold Mining Stocks Undervalued? [View article]
    Confession is good for the soul. I've been buying 100 or more
    shares of NUGT every nickel down during the last 3 days.
    My loss on 9000 shares is 17%. Also sitting on a big loss on
    calls on 4500 shares of GDX bought on the last 3 days.
    No pain..no gain. My biggest rewards have come on the plays
    with the most short term buyer's remorse.
    Jan 26 12:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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45 Comments
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