Mark Schoenenberger

S&P 500 Earnings vs. Valuation Matrix

Standard & Poor posted expected 2009 earnings on the S&P 500 as $48.52 on Oct. 14. (They have dropped earnings estimates every month since March when it was $81.52).... History tells us (read Shiller), that during a credit and banking crisis, the S&P 500 drops to P/Es below 10.... ERGO- your table, S&P and history tells us that the S&P 500 will go below 450 during this recession...

S&P 500 Earnings vs. Valuation Matrix

DUDE- Standard & Poors projected 2009 earnings on the S&P500 at $48.52 on October 14, 2008. (They reduced 2009 earnings estimates EVERY month since March when they guessed earnings at $81.52).... If you read your history (Shiller is a good source), you would know that the S&P will drop its P/E during a credit and banking crisis to below 10. Ergo- from your chart, and history, we can expect the S&P to go to 450 or less at its trough.