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johncworth

johncworth
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  • Best Ideas For 2014: Short IPO (And/Or Its Components) [View article]
    PF, quite a bit of actionable wisdom packed into a short space. Thank you for your thoughts.
    Dec 15, 2013. 12:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Killing Spiders: Better Options Than The S&P 500 ETF [View article]
    I would be really curious to hear your thoughts on the link should you have the time/inclination. I understand completely should this not be possible. Kind regards, jcw
    Dec 15, 2013. 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Killing Spiders: Better Options Than The S&P 500 ETF [View article]
    I am a big admirer of Joel Greenblatt. That being said, I think this article represents a fascinating movement forward in the pricing/quality equation.

    http://bit.ly/1efKqKr
    Dec 15, 2013. 10:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ideas For 2014: Short IPO (And/Or Its Components) [View article]
    I am completely in agreement Varan. SA quite fortunate to have him, as are we all.
    Dec 14, 2013. 11:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Safe 8.1% Yield From This Utility [View article]
    Rather than take the risk of the fixed instrument, if I wanted this income from this company I would buy the stock and sell covered calls @65 for Jan 2015. Same yield (counting dividend & option premium) if stock doesnt budge, 4% upside if stock goes up even a bit, and much less risk to principal if interest rates pick up. If stock price drops you can roll the options to recoup some of your loss.

    I think it is actually a more conservative strategy than getting locked into a long term fixed income investment that is selling at a premium.
    Dec 12, 2013. 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric: 6% Yield And Nearly 30% Upside Potential [View article]
    Knowing how to undo CapLock is your friend. just sayin.
    Dec 6, 2013. 01:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Is Best: DRIP Or Collect And Invest? [View article]
    Chuck, you are a fine writer and always generous with sharing your thoughts and experience. I hope you and yours are happy and well for the holidays. kind regards, jcw
    Dec 5, 2013. 10:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Is Yielding Even More Now, Therefore I'm Buying More [View article]

    "Cisco Is Yielding Even More Now, Therefore I'm Buying More"

    There are plenty of reasons to buy Cisco, as well as many a reason to run away from it. But to buy it FOR THE REASON ABOVE as stated is reckless in the extreme. The investment world is littered with companies that "were yielding even more" before the floor collapsed.
    Dec 5, 2013. 03:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Monsanto Is A Solid Pick For Your Portfolio [View article]
    Make that 7.1 billion and growing with a net gain of one person every 14 seconds.
    Nov 25, 2013. 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dex Media, Inc. - A Potential Multi-Bagger [View article]
    15 years in the business. Not an assumption though. Listen, invest away, I really hope you are correct. The margin calculation on a print directory is not particularly simple, as a huge part of the cost is fixed and a relatively small part of the cost is variable. So, when a directory loses 20 percent of its gross sales, the lost profit for the entity is more like 35 percent. Dex likely remarkets much of their digital offering - typically in the industry SEO/SEM and sometimes website development, video, etc are all remarketed. But just to take one product for example, some version of search engine marketing. They should be spending at LEAST 50% of a clients spend actually buying adwords. (Most customers would be quite unhappy with that low a spend). Then, they still have to pay admin, commissions, overhead, incur bad debt, and we have not even gotten to the cost of actually implementing the adwords program!!! Just to be ultra generous, lets say they make 25 percent margins (would be shocking really) . The dexknows website is not even ranked in the top 3000 in the USA (that being said, they likely participate in a distribution network which increases their reach a bit. Anyway, I really hope I am wrong, I have no dog in the hunt, and I really want you to get rich. Lets make a deal, we will check back here in a year and see who is right! I hope I am dead wrong. Kind regards, and happy holidays.
    Nov 23, 2013. 08:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dex Media, Inc. - A Potential Multi-Bagger [View article]
    Actually, your numbers confirm my point. As digital sales as a percentage of overall business margins will contract. Not sure where you see the contradiction. It is not possible to map precisely what margin degradation will look like given the available data, but I think that if it was an all digital company 15% given their product mix 15% would be in the ballpark.

    That being said, the existential threats are the amount of debt, and the less advertisers they have in their print directories the harder their access becomes in getting to local advertisers. This is certainly a business where it is EXTREMELY more expensive to procure and sustain new clients than it is to grow existing paper clients.
    Nov 22, 2013. 02:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dex Media, Inc. - A Potential Multi-Bagger [View article]
    Toast. The digital business has nothing like the profit margins of the print business. In the print business they ran a virtual monopoly, the margins were scandalous. In digital they primarily are remarketers of others products. The inhouse digital products are of marginal quality. Even if they manage to somehow keep the topline stable, the margins will continue to plunge. At some juncture the print will no longer be able to subsidize the attempted crossover to digital and then it will be katy bar the door. They have an expensive sales force selling into what is increasingly a commoditized digital business. If they had NO debt I would not be all that thrilled with their business. I do not see any way they can generate the kind of cash they have been doing based on plunging margins. . The print lever is collapsing. Once that lever is gone, so are almost all profits as well as their entry point in front of customers. This is a profoundly indebted company with a moat that is evaporating rapidly. I think it goes up short term based on the pump and the seemingly attractive opportunity. Very very dangerous. I certainly hope I am incorrect. Good luck to all.
    Nov 21, 2013. 09:20 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors takes another leg down [View news story]
    Will be interesting when you can tell your car to drive down to the store to get you some milk. Will only be a matter of time before you do not have to be in it.
    Nov 18, 2013. 05:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biofuels defenders blast EPA plan to cut ethanol mandate [View news story]
    It is really unusual to see such unanimity among the writers on SA. Usually there is a clearly defined line down the middle based on conservative or liberal orientation.
    Seems clear to me the only people that think ethanol is a good thing are those that are profiting from it. Everyone else, regardless of party affiliation, sees it for the rip off that it is. Yay us! We agree on something!
    Nov 16, 2013. 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For Maximum Total Return, Go For Growth [View article]
    Chuck, that is as good an article as we are ever going to read on SA. Thank you kindly once again for your terrific contributions. Hope you and yours are happy and well.
    Oct 25, 2013. 04:31 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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