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Arthur Fisher

Arthur Fisher
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  • Update: Micron Supply Concerns [View article]
    An uncommonly sane contribution. Just added you as "following".
    Oct 7, 2014. 01:48 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Stalled On iPhone 6 Release? [View article]
    Yes, exactly. "The only two questions that matter" right now are (1) how much money will they make?, and (2) what will they do with the money?
    Sep 22, 2014. 11:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Looks Good At A 1-Year Time Horizon [View article]
    Mr. Zernov, Your points both on Ford and here are well taken. They bring clarity to aspects of the situation. Here: that the cash recoverable from a dividend cut is not significant compared to the outlays needed to fund the further expansion of the fleet. You wisely don't attempt to say more than you know. If loyalists and believers find your contributions indigestible, so be it. I'm now a "follower".
    Sep 17, 2014. 05:41 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'A New Order Of Things' - Micron's Challenge And Opportunity (Part 1) [View article]
    The role of the Micron-Intel relationship in the future of all this?
    Sep 15, 2014. 05:03 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Falls Off iPhone 6 Launch Map [View article]
    Small potatoes so far. The risk is that these "tests" themselves become an arena for faultfinding and a more extended delay. Some weird tug-of-war behind the Red Curtain. To paraphrase a line from David Dibnik: "For Americans power means being able to do whatever you want, while [in much of the rest of the world] it means being able to prevent others from doing what they want."
    Sep 15, 2014. 03:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple analyst buzz mostly positive, Pac Crest sees lack of new profit drivers [View news story]
    As an optimist with a healthy imagination, I read the signature as "lifeSEX".
    Sep 10, 2014. 01:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MarketWatch: 'Chinese Government Will Do Everything To Stop Apple' [View article]
    In Europe there are two very different markets, like everywhere else: the premier market and the cheap-phone market. In Spain, where I am with family for part of each year, Samsung greatly outshines Apple due to two things: (1) very much more aggressive advertising, and (2) the fact that reviews in the major daily newspapers and their websites invariably praise every Samsung product and seldom mention Apple at all. Bizarre. You don't suppose.....?
    Sep 8, 2014. 05:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Be Foolish On Ford [View article]
    The Mini-Cooper, the SmartCar, and Tesla all argue that the auto market is stale and very vulnerable to striking innovation. Booming overall SAAR seems to be more about catch-up and replacement than it is about falling back in love with cars. Most recent innovation has been adding incremental technological advances to the interior, to the consumer's experience inside the car: some excellent, some not so much, few compelling.

    My thesis with Ford at $ 10.00 was that these coming years would see Ford emerge as "the" leader in the industry, taking over the iconic place held historically by GM, and that could well still happen, albeit painfully slowly, like urban redevelopment. Meanwhile it remains to be seen (1) whether all the new models, or any of them, cause a "fall-in-love" response as have the three first mentioned above, (2) whether this wave of new models, in the minds of Ford, really represents a strategy to conquer or only a strategy to stay in the game by upgrading as automakers usually have done, and (3) whether the strategy is more aimed at market share or more aimed at maximizing profitability, as the two so often both conflict in themselves and appeal to very different human desires. The new Mustang seems like a good test case for all three of these questions, but maybe not if it isn't really "new". The answers may not be definitively clear until the introduction of the 2016 or the 2017 models.

    Meanwhile, look for the "tells".
    Sep 8, 2014. 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite Recent Pullback, Cummins Shares Are Still Not Compelling Value [View article]
    If Cummins is even partly right, by 2018 you won't care what you paid. Great long-term growth stocks are very seldom "a compelling buy". If sales and earnings rise, so will the multiple. Looked at 3M or Honeywell lately?
    Sep 6, 2014. 01:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson Controls Is A Good Long-Term Investment Candidate [View article]
    Take a good long look at the pattern of insider transactions: very large options being cashed out 100%. It makes you wonder.
    Aug 31, 2014. 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look At The Intel Developer's Forum [View article]
    Folks can't live without hope and heroes.
    Aug 27, 2014. 05:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cummins' cautious guidance, China outlook sends shares -3.5% [View news story]
    Which do you think more likely a year from now? $ 125 or $ 165?
    Jul 28, 2014. 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ross: Invest For Even Less? [View article]
    Proudly telling us how much stock they bought back, but not telling us how much they gave away to management, and then how much those managers almost immediately sold? Doesn't inspire confidence, does it?
    Jul 18, 2014. 08:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SanDisk -7.1% AH due to margin drop; Micron -2.4% [View news story]
    A sort of inversion of the greater-fool theory, selling because you think that some other fool will sell after you do?
    Jul 16, 2014. 04:35 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Momentum Will Push Apple To $105 By Year-End [View article]
    It's all the guys who sold before,
    Still stuck in their revolving door.
    They're out; they're in.
    They never win.
    So we get rich while they grow poor.
    Jul 11, 2014. 05:03 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment