David Roskoph's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/75709/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/171104/comments?source=feed#comment-744299 744299 Wed, 04 Nov 2009 10:44:52 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/170774/comments?source=feed#comment-742663 742663
This is a recovery for the textbooks, starting from the once-cancerous inards out; we are a stronger nation going forward. The one-card-monty of (too) free market capitalism - that gave us the contract law dot-com and real estate booms - will be replaced by something with better odds. Why even the Federal Reserve is threatening to be more responsible.]]> Tue, 03 Nov 2009 13:39:16 -0500
This is a recovery for the textbooks, starting from the once-cancerous inards out; we are a stronger nation going forward. The one-card-monty of (too) free market capitalism - that gave us the contract law dot-com and real estate booms - will be replaced by something with better odds. Why even the Federal Reserve is threatening to be more responsible.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170517/comments?source=feed#comment-740369 740369
Roma please.]]> Mon, 02 Nov 2009 11:00:00 -0500
Roma please.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168665/comments?source=feed#comment-730001 730001 You may think I’m deluded and this market rally is destined to fail. Certainly that is the popular belief. Remember that the market has two functions 1) to provide a mechanism to get money from savers to builders – the investors pledge their capital and the companies use it to expand; 2) to transfer wealth from speculators to professionals. It’s working as good as ever. What changes with time is the medium to shake good shares away from weak hands. As a herding beast, we comfort each other on a sinking ship as long as we all agree it’s sinking. When someone protests that the waterline is falling, they shoot him and settle in for their community swim. If you have a chance to read some of the comments from articles I published a few months ago, you’ll see this in action.

Getting ready for a swim Mudduckk?]]> Sun, 25 Oct 2009 21:51:22 -0400 You may think I’m deluded and this market rally is destined to fail. Certainly that is the popular belief. Remember that the market has two functions 1) to provide a mechanism to get money from savers to builders – the investors pledge their capital and the companies use it to expand; 2) to transfer wealth from speculators to professionals. It’s working as good as ever. What changes with time is the medium to shake good shares away from weak hands. As a herding beast, we comfort each other on a sinking ship as long as we all agree it’s sinking. When someone protests that the waterline is falling, they shoot him and settle in for their community swim. If you have a chance to read some of the comments from articles I published a few months ago, you’ll see this in action.

Getting ready for a swim Mudduckk?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168665/comments?source=feed#comment-729151 729151
We have survived the tearing of the veil exposing the lie that 1) we could afford our past lifestyle including retirement for 14 years and 2) that fancy financing equaled growth. Now what, start over? No. We are rebuilding the foundation stronger than it has been in 35 years; this is a recover and the start of a new Bull Market.

Believe it or don't, the desire to expand will hit with almost simultaneous effect and the unemployment ranks will be substantially reduced. It will be a blistering Christmas and the fact that the middle class has rejoined its mojo will drive the market higher. It's a matter of restored confidence.

All the haggling and dire statistics are financial theater, meant to shake the weak hands in or out - just like always. ]]> Sun, 25 Oct 2009 10:36:11 -0400
We have survived the tearing of the veil exposing the lie that 1) we could afford our past lifestyle including retirement for 14 years and 2) that fancy financing equaled growth. Now what, start over? No. We are rebuilding the foundation stronger than it has been in 35 years; this is a recover and the start of a new Bull Market.

Believe it or don't, the desire to expand will hit with almost simultaneous effect and the unemployment ranks will be substantially reduced. It will be a blistering Christmas and the fact that the middle class has rejoined its mojo will drive the market higher. It's a matter of restored confidence.

All the haggling and dire statistics are financial theater, meant to shake the weak hands in or out - just like always. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168665/comments?source=feed#comment-729134 729134 Sun, 25 Oct 2009 10:23:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/148129/comments?source=feed#comment-583634 583634
Then the issue becomes how to tap them out while not reducing thier productivity. It's a three way battle between taxes, energy and debt; each placating one of the tree groups that runs the show. If any of the three gets too greedy, they'll break the back of the engine that determines the fate of global capitalism.

Although we are mathematically bankrupt now, our middle class remains the best show on Earth. Despite our subprime foray, we will ressurect the world we almost felled - starting now. It's strictly a matter of franchise value and we have no cogent competition.]]> Sat, 11 Jul 2009 12:54:49 -0400
Then the issue becomes how to tap them out while not reducing thier productivity. It's a three way battle between taxes, energy and debt; each placating one of the tree groups that runs the show. If any of the three gets too greedy, they'll break the back of the engine that determines the fate of global capitalism.

Although we are mathematically bankrupt now, our middle class remains the best show on Earth. Despite our subprime foray, we will ressurect the world we almost felled - starting now. It's strictly a matter of franchise value and we have no cogent competition.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145251/comments?source=feed#comment-565667 565667
People are unchanged throughout the ages. They need to hope and that manifests in investment. There is presently no alternative: interest rates - nil, interest in real estate - next to nil, interest in precious metals - tepid. All that (practicically) remains is equities. Logic be damned, emotion will triumph. It's going up.]]> Sun, 28 Jun 2009 10:54:24 -0400
People are unchanged throughout the ages. They need to hope and that manifests in investment. There is presently no alternative: interest rates - nil, interest in real estate - next to nil, interest in precious metals - tepid. All that (practicically) remains is equities. Logic be damned, emotion will triumph. It's going up.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145572/comments?source=feed#comment-565493 565493 Sun, 28 Jun 2009 08:53:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/145663/comments?source=feed#comment-565480 565480
No so for us. Therefore we did indeed experience a depression (modern) and this is a recovery. Step back and appreciate that the pace has been at internet speed. The carnage unmitigated and the reform, ten year's worth as well. All in 18 months!

The vital difference is that we consume heartily and are not expendable (at least not yet). It will be a "V" not and "L", much to the disbelief of anyone who can add up our mountain of debt because the deficit is tantamount to WWIII. Belive it or dont, profit or cower.]]> Sun, 28 Jun 2009 08:44:06 -0400
No so for us. Therefore we did indeed experience a depression (modern) and this is a recovery. Step back and appreciate that the pace has been at internet speed. The carnage unmitigated and the reform, ten year's worth as well. All in 18 months!

The vital difference is that we consume heartily and are not expendable (at least not yet). It will be a "V" not and "L", much to the disbelief of anyone who can add up our mountain of debt because the deficit is tantamount to WWIII. Belive it or dont, profit or cower.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144227/comments?source=feed#comment-556248 556248
Defacto since 1973. The point is that gold will never go back to any relationship to dollars. It's detaching as a monetary instrument, ie something with "intrinsic" value. I have read that the gold / dollar relationship is north of $6,400 presently, by 1935 standards. ]]> Sun, 21 Jun 2009 12:54:54 -0400
Defacto since 1973. The point is that gold will never go back to any relationship to dollars. It's detaching as a monetary instrument, ie something with "intrinsic" value. I have read that the gold / dollar relationship is north of $6,400 presently, by 1935 standards. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144391/comments?source=feed#comment-555934 555934
Imagine how lovely the country if they only stayed receptionists; the lawyers I mean.]]> Sun, 21 Jun 2009 09:11:44 -0400
Imagine how lovely the country if they only stayed receptionists; the lawyers I mean.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144227/comments?source=feed#comment-555931 555931
seekingalpha.com/artic...]]> Sun, 21 Jun 2009 09:08:03 -0400
seekingalpha.com/artic...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144205/comments?source=feed#comment-555753 555753
Stand back and look at this from another perspective. We've had a full decade of destrustion and now we are getting a decade or reconstuction; a depression and recovery in internet time. The carnage is obvious even through the time has been compressed. The present stimulus will function as a world war did 60 years ago. Only now the entire world is dancing to a capitalist tune. The value of the US franchise remains atop the world despite our mortgage-backed dalliances and bankrupt status. It's a recovery, there is no Great Pumpkin. ]]> Sun, 21 Jun 2009 01:34:22 -0400
Stand back and look at this from another perspective. We've had a full decade of destrustion and now we are getting a decade or reconstuction; a depression and recovery in internet time. The carnage is obvious even through the time has been compressed. The present stimulus will function as a world war did 60 years ago. Only now the entire world is dancing to a capitalist tune. The value of the US franchise remains atop the world despite our mortgage-backed dalliances and bankrupt status. It's a recovery, there is no Great Pumpkin. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144227/comments?source=feed#comment-555747 555747
ps. I'm waiting for the tomatoes. ]]> Sun, 21 Jun 2009 01:15:59 -0400
ps. I'm waiting for the tomatoes. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/142534/comments?source=feed#comment-542061 542061
The flock has convinced themselves that down is the only alternative.]]> Thu, 11 Jun 2009 10:19:28 -0400
The flock has convinced themselves that down is the only alternative.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/142299/comments?source=feed#comment-540254 540254 Wed, 10 Jun 2009 09:16:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/140022/comments?source=feed#comment-522695 522695 Fri, 29 May 2009 09:23:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/138937/comments?source=feed#comment-515946 515946 Indeed! Moreover, the pursuit of that fallacy is why we are bankrupt.
Thanks.

On May 21 05:34 PM Craig W wrote:

> " . . . but eventually every citizen must understand that you cannot
> have complete security and capitalism at the same time."
>
> The underlying premise of your statement is that there is a system
> that offers complete security. Hogwash.
>
> I say: ". . . but eventually every citizen must understand that you
> cannot have complete security."]]> Sun, 24 May 2009 08:54:18 -0400 Indeed! Moreover, the pursuit of that fallacy is why we are bankrupt.
Thanks.

On May 21 05:34 PM Craig W wrote:

> " . . . but eventually every citizen must understand that you cannot
> have complete security and capitalism at the same time."
>
> The underlying premise of your statement is that there is a system
> that offers complete security. Hogwash.
>
> I say: ". . . but eventually every citizen must understand that you
> cannot have complete security."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133893/comments?source=feed#comment-482308 482308 Wed, 29 Apr 2009 08:52:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/131694/comments?source=feed#comment-469627 469627 Mon, 20 Apr 2009 10:39:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/131538/comments?source=feed#comment-468360 468360 Sun, 19 Apr 2009 10:51:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/131580/comments?source=feed#comment-468351 468351 ]]> Sun, 19 Apr 2009 10:45:55 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130398/comments?source=feed#comment-458833 458833 Fri, 10 Apr 2009 10:33:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129457/comments?source=feed#comment-452334 452334
Though I didn't vote for president Obama, I must admit that he "get's it". The shenanigans of off-budget items, GSE's, and ever-more frequent, quick-fix bubbles has only simulated properity. We've been going backwards for 35 years because we assumed financing was organic growth (see GM). This year that lie was laid bare. The absence of adequate regulation has broadened the chasm twixt the oligarcy and the would-be proliterate to revolution-threatening proportions. Capitalism evolves or else.

The America we now occupy is improving quickly as it upgrads to 21st Capitalism. Our franchise will remain the most prosperous on Earth as the era or cowboy capitalism is tucked into the economic history books. We survived because we showed the 20th century that capitalism was the only viable alternative to the human condition and the world agreed. Despite our many sins, they have re-elected us to lead; for now.]]> Sun, 05 Apr 2009 10:56:04 -0400
Though I didn't vote for president Obama, I must admit that he "get's it". The shenanigans of off-budget items, GSE's, and ever-more frequent, quick-fix bubbles has only simulated properity. We've been going backwards for 35 years because we assumed financing was organic growth (see GM). This year that lie was laid bare. The absence of adequate regulation has broadened the chasm twixt the oligarcy and the would-be proliterate to revolution-threatening proportions. Capitalism evolves or else.

The America we now occupy is improving quickly as it upgrads to 21st Capitalism. Our franchise will remain the most prosperous on Earth as the era or cowboy capitalism is tucked into the economic history books. We survived because we showed the 20th century that capitalism was the only viable alternative to the human condition and the world agreed. Despite our many sins, they have re-elected us to lead; for now.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128855/comments?source=feed#comment-447862 447862 Wed, 01 Apr 2009 10:20:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/128470/comments?source=feed#comment-445455 445455
Bully, quite. The crowd must be frightenened out of their senses, just as they were intoxicated out of them 10 years ago. This is a financial soap opera for a public that demands entertainment in every venue.]]> Mon, 30 Mar 2009 14:08:32 -0400
Bully, quite. The crowd must be frightenened out of their senses, just as they were intoxicated out of them 10 years ago. This is a financial soap opera for a public that demands entertainment in every venue.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128236/comments?source=feed#comment-443394 443394
There is no intrinsic value to paper money, and the world is awash in it. Our sawbuck is the firmest paper on the planet, despite our fiscal dalliances. The world needs a captain of capitalism and we are him, otherwise they'd mutiny and our dollars would be dispensed in rolls.

As ugly and untrustworthy as it may seem, this is a recovery. Capitalism HAS survived albeit in a slightly different form. There is nothing to replace it and the world so voted by buying up our Treasuries. Next they will buy up our equities while the academicians continue to expect anarchy.]]> Sat, 28 Mar 2009 11:23:36 -0400
There is no intrinsic value to paper money, and the world is awash in it. Our sawbuck is the firmest paper on the planet, despite our fiscal dalliances. The world needs a captain of capitalism and we are him, otherwise they'd mutiny and our dollars would be dispensed in rolls.

As ugly and untrustworthy as it may seem, this is a recovery. Capitalism HAS survived albeit in a slightly different form. There is nothing to replace it and the world so voted by buying up our Treasuries. Next they will buy up our equities while the academicians continue to expect anarchy.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127739/comments?source=feed#comment-439630 439630 Wed, 25 Mar 2009 11:16:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/123287/comments?source=feed#comment-408798 408798

On Mar 01 12:31 PM carey_jim wrote:

> Again, it's not clear, and probably not true that it was the fiscal
> stimulus of World War II that ended the Great Depression.
>
> All the economic data show that the bottom of the Great Depression
> was reached in 1932 (when Roosevelt took office) and from then until
> World War II the GDP began climbing, until 1936, when it was almost
> at the 1929, pre-crash level.
>
> www.economics-charts.c...
>
> There was a mild recession in 1937 but from 1938 to 1942 (remember
> that the war started for the United States at the very end of 1941)
> the American GDP increased.
>
> Unemployment was the big problem that didn't go away but even unemployment
> improved from 25% in 1932 to just under 10% in 1941 the year BEFORE
> America entered the war.
>
> books.google.com/books...;pg=PA211&lpg=...
>
>
> If current unemployment statistics were calculated the same way they
> were in the 1930s American unemployment would be closer to 14% than
> it is to the official numbers, during the last ten years.
>
> Most historians and political scientists, who keep a healthy distance
> from economics, think it was the complete defeat of all America's
> major competitors that was the principle cause of America's economic
> prosperity after World War II, not the economic stimulus that came
> from fighting the war.
>
> In fact, the war certainly crippled the American economy because
> it killed and injured hundreds of thousands of productive American
> workers and diverted precious resources to into goods and services
> that were ultimately destroyed by the enemy. In addition, these goods
> and services were produced INSTEAD of other domestic goods and services
> such as cars and refrigerators.
>
> We need to argue for government fiscal spending with other, more
> reasonable arguments.]]> Mon, 02 Mar 2009 01:29:13 -0500

On Mar 01 12:31 PM carey_jim wrote:

> Again, it's not clear, and probably not true that it was the fiscal
> stimulus of World War II that ended the Great Depression.
>
> All the economic data show that the bottom of the Great Depression
> was reached in 1932 (when Roosevelt took office) and from then until
> World War II the GDP began climbing, until 1936, when it was almost
> at the 1929, pre-crash level.
>
> www.economics-charts.c...
>
> There was a mild recession in 1937 but from 1938 to 1942 (remember
> that the war started for the United States at the very end of 1941)
> the American GDP increased.
>
> Unemployment was the big problem that didn't go away but even unemployment
> improved from 25% in 1932 to just under 10% in 1941 the year BEFORE
> America entered the war.
>
> books.google.com/books...;pg=PA211&lpg=...
>
>
> If current unemployment statistics were calculated the same way they
> were in the 1930s American unemployment would be closer to 14% than
> it is to the official numbers, during the last ten years.
>
> Most historians and political scientists, who keep a healthy distance
> from economics, think it was the complete defeat of all America's
> major competitors that was the principle cause of America's economic
> prosperity after World War II, not the economic stimulus that came
> from fighting the war.
>
> In fact, the war certainly crippled the American economy because
> it killed and injured hundreds of thousands of productive American
> workers and diverted precious resources to into goods and services
> that were ultimately destroyed by the enemy. In addition, these goods
> and services were produced INSTEAD of other domestic goods and services
> such as cars and refrigerators.
>
> We need to argue for government fiscal spending with other, more
> reasonable arguments.]]>