elwind45

Nouriel Roubini, One on One: More Doom and Gloom

The government will sacrifice business to save "its" skin. This dollar problem ends in a yield curve standing on its head (no confidence). I can forsee a time when the only thing stopping the yield curve from staying negative is higher taxes. A company will not be able to make payroll from commercial paper( interest cost).The economy is being turned into a raisin! Any capital is clawed out of the economy as soon as it hits the banking system. The only real economic growth is risk (dollar carry) and pass thru payments to AIG. This is a time to believe higher short term rates. What is wrong with staying liquid and off CNBC?

Yes. Goldman Created a Fictional Stock Market Rally

A good eyeopener! I believe the tech bubble was the work of Bill Gates. I would add China selling bills to raise dollar/lower oil/maintain cheap currency. The amount of money in troubled banks against bad loans is amazing. The zombie banks remind me of a old folks home with very rich medical plans. I further believe that all that money on the sidelines is happy in longer term paper to profit from coming bigger leg down. I happen to believe the 401(k) is not going to help this market now or ever. I think softs are going to be the straw that breaks economies back! If any of the money in banks would be loaned out boom inflation from fractional reserves. Any growth in economy is directly result of dollar carry. The government does not want any bank lending because of short term interest rate problems with Fed balance sheet. We are about to decide for government survival by sacrificing business like Volcker did in 1979!

Looming 'Overboughtness' in the Markets

That last chart shows the index a ways from its 50 day moving average! I am banking on true hedge fund redemptions and not just when the chairman gets arrested!

Earnings Reports Threaten to Deflate Balloon Boy Dow

Can this rally continue when short term interest rates rise? Will China face losing money in a falling dollar and pay 100 dollars a barrel for oil?Will the market continue up when the Treasury bills unwind thus stalling the economy and making long paper very attractive? How can anybody believe analyst's forecasts when they are off the reservation too bearish? How can a professional make money in the market when the public has seen the S&P go from 667 to 1100? Has anybody heard any public information on hedge fund redemptions? As for the market not crashing, this rally has been built by selling the dollar to buy YAHOO! Be safe all.

Treasury, Gold Relationship: One Question, One Answer, One Chart

I suspect that redemptions are about to change the rallies outlook. Selling stocks to raise dollars. It is lonely shorting the banks. I believe (hope) after Goldman's earnings bam down down....

Bond Market Sends a Message

The Treasury changed the rules. Federal Reserve bond buying gets lumped into overseas demand. It is a little funny how China is on holiday, yet bonds are exploding. It seems to me a strange thing mystifying?

Why Falling M2 Growth Is a Good Thing

The graph is showing a desperate deposits grab by zombie banks. I think the story of next year is de-leveraging of bank balance sheets. Than we will be able to throw "baby out with bath water" and get down to creating growth. This talking about once viable assets coming back has become lame months ago. Bulls make money bears make it too and the very rich just take it from me and you!

Is Marc Faber Right About the U.S. Dollar?

We can have a falling dollar and still survive. As long as China creates Yuan to offset trade imbalances. Dollar carry is going to be used to fund off balance sheet dollar creation. The Yen can be controlled by BOJ and the ECB has room to lower rates to defend stronger Euro. We would have inflation in the future anyhow. When your entire export policy is de-valuing your currency , who cares how low it goes? Your rich ha ha.

Ten Reasons for an Imminent Stock Market Crash

That was some article. Obama would be alot further right than Biden. I would blame Stockman and than Don Reegan! Supply-side was DOA yet still was allowed to ruin economy. The home of the bubble mentality lives with Reagans failed dual Presidency! (Nancy, Dave, both Donalds) You could have it without paying for it RONNY?


On Oct 01 02:26 AM storm999 wrote:

> re: point 7 I remember when supply side economics was called "voodoo
> ecnomics". The argument was concentating wealth at the top would
> lead to an explosion of new jobs and rising incomes for all. Hahaha.
> 30 years of supply side economic policies have brought us back to
> the kind of seesaw bubble-deflation cycles that plagued the post-bellum
> U.S. with the main twist being we are now a fiat currency. Both the
> income dispersion you mention and the overcapacity in China are symptoms
> of supply side ecnomic policy failures.
>
> Any idiot can see that for the past two decades we have over built,
> globally, in a number of areas and artificially pumped up demand
> with ever expanding credit. When Bill Gross talks about being at
> the top of a credit cycle and massive deleveraging, it is implicit
> that there is an over supply of the deleveraging assets; otherwise,
> demand would prop up their value. The top of the credit cycle, the
> Minsky moment, causes overpriced assets.
>
> President Obama is probably less liberal than Eisenhower in a lot
> of areas. Eisenhower would have rolled back the Bush tax cuts his
> first week in office. I wouldn't call President Obama's trying to
> reform the Health Insurance oligopoly "socialist", 50 years ago we
> would have broken up those companies and maintained competitive markets.
> Now according to the DOJ many states have upwards of 70% of their
> markets controlled by one firm -that's a virtual monopoly. Our banks
> are another example: too big to fail and we have been warned by TARP
> inspectors and the business press that the biggest banks have taken
> on even more risk.
>
> The political climate has the mainstream majority being shut out
> by most of the media while right wing crackpots lynch census workers
> and parade guns around town hall meetings. When you have people like
> Michael Savage calling for a second revolution, it is hardly socialism.
> It's fascism.
>
> President Obama's stimulus combined with the Fed's intervention transformed
> us from a 6% contraction rate, to 1% contraction rate. Socialism
> in this case worked, although, it is hard to call it socialism when
> the bulk of the trillions in aid have been made to financial institutions
> which have profited at the expense of main street.
>

Ten Reasons for an Imminent Stock Market Crash

Its all about the flash trades. It has been easy to bid up repeated small lot trades. Managers have been able to push up valuations with little investment. The bubble burst when managers start selling much larger lots than they were buying. Selling out will eliminate the the "shark risk". Who doesnt want cheaper equity prices anyhow? This snowball will grow quick, and fast? One last day to clean up on the "flash"! 16-32% down would be a fast inticement.

Money Supply: The Myth of Hyperinflation

This Fed is full of bad debt sucked out of the economy. It is very unpopular outside of Washington. There may never be a more perfect time to get rid of this frankenstein. We could faze out Fed notes and replace with Treasury notes. The Central Bank is full of our crap and needs to be pushed off the cliff, like a hollywood "B" movie. Doesnt America need a clean independent start de-void of the FEDERAL RESERVE?

Paulson vs. Fuld, Cont'd

It would have been better long term if Lehman would have been the rule instead of the exception. Paulson's actions speak louder than words. Only in the 21st century would country or Banking system mean nothing compared to the uber-wealthy. This last year resembles nothing our forefathers would have expected or accepted!

Fair Value for the S&P 500? Tell Me Lies, Sweet Little Lies

Much of the good news about earnings is coming from the bottom line and not the top. Without true top line growth how long will the news be rosey? Since much of the bottom line improvement is coming from lay-offs, how long will improvements by firings last? I cant help but smile about top line growth. Any pick-up in growth should be (?) met with higher interest rates. A pickup in money velocity should panic the Fed into drastic rate increases. Since midterm elections are around the corner how much real inflation fighting will come out of the Fed? I believe there is still way to many unknowns to fight for price in either stock or bond markets. I can feel the black swan circling the punters like a vulture!

The Age of Turbulence: Preparing for the Crash

I understand your oil call. Rig shut-ins. Much of the recent rosey estimates are based on the drunk being able to stand up to drink the kool-aid again. Our economy must go thru a complete interest rate cycle to really weed out the weak. This next wave down (3rd wave) will be void of bailouts and the cards will fall accordingly. The call for much higher stock prices is very do able short term. When Goldman is trading with self prices can go higher. I believe that a fight with Obama over elections and interest rates is going to be entertaining. We are inflating a new bubble, A bullshiat bubble!

Beyond SIGTARP's $23.7 Trillion Headline

Yet another report which when made public is blasted. This situation reminds me of Nero. Nero was more concerned with fiddle being tuned, then the roof being on fire. The economy is being drained of capital. The banking system is crowding out private investment to survive. The choice going forward is save the Fed or save the economy. Can you see Ben telling Obama that he needs to drain liquidity just before mid-terms? I love how CNBC assumes that the Central bank still controls short rates. The Fed is stuck trying to lower long rates whilst its balance sheet smells like shit. The Central Bank has never been weaker, and will get bailed out. Could you see velocity if we really had green shoots? Pray for a Japanese-style recovery or we are DOOMED.