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Global Macro Trends in Eight Charts: The Next Crisis Will Be in Currency

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Global Macro Trends in Eight Charts: The Next Crisis Will Be in Currency

The Fed can continue to post collateral with the Treasury to continue its above said activities. The amount of income received by AIG, Fannie and Freddie each day makes the press hum. It is easy street for the Fed when you dont have to mark liabilities. I dont expect anything to change for a long time. We can expect asset bubbles, but this is going to be a multi-year biggie. I dont see how the Central Bank can get out of this one, since they have lost control of short rates! It is suicide to allow long rates to "tick-up" and no way a depression acedemic will ever risk it! I feel like a crew member of the pinta or santa maria. Its a sin to expect dollar carry to grease the economy. I feel for younger pensioners.

Whither the Dollar? Currency Trends and ETFs

What about intervention? At some level one of two things will happen. The US will lower rates to save exports and/or bank balance sheets or world central banks will sale dollars back to treasury. Has any one noticed KOREA? The U.S. economy is pretty much banking on continued strong exports. With a double negative of slowing world growth and or export growth the strong dollar is history. What are odds of ECB lowing rates to combat falling EURO. Europe has raised interest rates during weak economic periods in past, to combat import price inflation. I would bet on intervention coordinated (the US government is the idiot in this equation! happy trading ( STRONG DOLLAR= TOO MUCH TUBE)

Currencies: Dead Cats and Yapping Dogs

Can we think about the real world for a second. Dollar strength happens to coincide with beginning of games in China. China would build a position before the games to make change!(dollar for dollar) Once games end dollars will be exchanged for Yuan(stored in American fed). This added strength to a dollar which was being bought by world banks to even out of horrible mortgage paper investments in the states. Lastly, there has been a large rise in American exports(backward looking) that is also temporary. Going forward each of these factors are temporary and will not continue in any form to keep this rally going! Until the truth about American inflation is realised dollar is at top of range!

Thoughts on the Dollar: PPP and Thresholds

dollar has become funding currency. How long will it be able to float?