elwind45

Preview of the U.S.'s Future: Debt Burdened Nation?

We can always sell Alaska to China for 2 Trillion! Build a railroad bridge across the straits as a jobs program or start a couple more wars! We do have options, of course exporting wars is our favorite occupation. I bet on another blood thristy war.

On Nov 23 06:45 PM Davewmart wrote:

> Bjarne,
> I thnk all out war unlikely. The conflict is likely ot happen in
> the resource rich countries that would provide the materials to maintain
> conflict - Africa, the Middle East, and South America.
> I agree that the long-term durability of the US in a conflict is
> questionable, but if it warmed up over a period of a few years the
> development of resources like rare earths elsewhere than in China
> seems likely, and massive efforts to re-industrialise the US.
> The far more resource strapped Germany rapidly increased it's arnaments
> in a few years prior to WW2, and a similar level of effort targetted
> to securing and developing commodity production and manufacturing
> in the US would seem likely under this sort of scenario.

Preview of the U.S.'s Future: Debt Burdened Nation?

You sound alot like Igor Panarin!


On Nov 23 05:39 AM User 353732 wrote:

> The debt problem will endure as long as the current US Regime endures.
> When the "problem" becomes a catastrophe then either the US Regime
> will fall and there will be a tremendous positive resetting of American
> society, values and the basis of wealth creation or the Regime will
> persist and America will fall.
>
> America's fall will be accompanied by the repudiation of much of
> US Govt and agency debt,ferocious flight of risk capital and talent
> from America to places where innovation and entrepreneurship are
> welcome, the ruin and virtual collapse of of the Middle Class and
> of course, the end of the dollar as even a superregional currency
> much less a world currency.
>
> Unredeemable debt is a reality that can be denied for decades until
> it becomes so large a part of national, community and personal life
> that it can be denied no longer.
> Today, the US Regime believes that it controls debt and its more
> rabid and intellectually bankrupt propagandists say that debt does
> not matter. Millions of Americans believe this because the alternatives
> require too much moral and mental heavy lifting.
> They prefer and the US Regime encourages them, every day, all day,
> to live in the land of the lotus eaters, where tomorrow never comes;
> but, of course tomorrow will come and it will not arrive as a friend.
>
>
> Tomorrow, debt will control the US Regime and it will exact a fearful
> price from all Americans:
> pay and suffer a great compression in the material quality of life
> for a generation but at the end emerge with honor and strength or.......
> fail to pay and lose almost all personal and property rights and
> enter into the long dark night of enslavement, humiliated and enervated.
>
>
> The tipping point-- the Great Reckoning--- may come when the interest
> on National , state and local debt equals about a third of all local,
> state and federal tax revenues. This is closer than many of our fellow
> citizens realize as exploding debt collides with imploding tax revenues.

Earnings Reports Threaten to Deflate Balloon Boy Dow

Can this rally continue when short term interest rates rise? Will China face losing money in a falling dollar and pay 100 dollars a barrel for oil?Will the market continue up when the Treasury bills unwind thus stalling the economy and making long paper very attractive? How can anybody believe analyst's forecasts when they are off the reservation too bearish? How can a professional make money in the market when the public has seen the S&P go from 667 to 1100? Has anybody heard any public information on hedge fund redemptions? As for the market not crashing, this rally has been built by selling the dollar to buy YAHOO! Be safe all.

Ten Reasons for an Imminent Stock Market Crash

That was some article. Obama would be alot further right than Biden. I would blame Stockman and than Don Reegan! Supply-side was DOA yet still was allowed to ruin economy. The home of the bubble mentality lives with Reagans failed dual Presidency! (Nancy, Dave, both Donalds) You could have it without paying for it RONNY?


On Oct 01 02:26 AM storm999 wrote:

> re: point 7 I remember when supply side economics was called "voodoo
> ecnomics". The argument was concentating wealth at the top would
> lead to an explosion of new jobs and rising incomes for all. Hahaha.
> 30 years of supply side economic policies have brought us back to
> the kind of seesaw bubble-deflation cycles that plagued the post-bellum
> U.S. with the main twist being we are now a fiat currency. Both the
> income dispersion you mention and the overcapacity in China are symptoms
> of supply side ecnomic policy failures.
>
> Any idiot can see that for the past two decades we have over built,
> globally, in a number of areas and artificially pumped up demand
> with ever expanding credit. When Bill Gross talks about being at
> the top of a credit cycle and massive deleveraging, it is implicit
> that there is an over supply of the deleveraging assets; otherwise,
> demand would prop up their value. The top of the credit cycle, the
> Minsky moment, causes overpriced assets.
>
> President Obama is probably less liberal than Eisenhower in a lot
> of areas. Eisenhower would have rolled back the Bush tax cuts his
> first week in office. I wouldn't call President Obama's trying to
> reform the Health Insurance oligopoly "socialist", 50 years ago we
> would have broken up those companies and maintained competitive markets.
> Now according to the DOJ many states have upwards of 70% of their
> markets controlled by one firm -that's a virtual monopoly. Our banks
> are another example: too big to fail and we have been warned by TARP
> inspectors and the business press that the biggest banks have taken
> on even more risk.
>
> The political climate has the mainstream majority being shut out
> by most of the media while right wing crackpots lynch census workers
> and parade guns around town hall meetings. When you have people like
> Michael Savage calling for a second revolution, it is hardly socialism.
> It's fascism.
>
> President Obama's stimulus combined with the Fed's intervention transformed
> us from a 6% contraction rate, to 1% contraction rate. Socialism
> in this case worked, although, it is hard to call it socialism when
> the bulk of the trillions in aid have been made to financial institutions
> which have profited at the expense of main street.
>

Ten Reasons for an Imminent Stock Market Crash

Its all about the flash trades. It has been easy to bid up repeated small lot trades. Managers have been able to push up valuations with little investment. The bubble burst when managers start selling much larger lots than they were buying. Selling out will eliminate the the "shark risk". Who doesnt want cheaper equity prices anyhow? This snowball will grow quick, and fast? One last day to clean up on the "flash"! 16-32% down would be a fast inticement.

Preparing for a Rally

Churning the rest of year for commissions. Sell toward end of month and bank profits which will be off-set by losses. Traders?

The "Worst Is Over" Crowd Is In for a Shock

The fed has been restricting the money supply to "pay" the bailout. This type of money growth will not inflationary, at first. The economy is withering on the vine. The bailout funds will be horded on bank balance sheets.(covering level 3 junk) The treasury will have to suck out all the toxic stuff. The money supply will still be restrictive and growth weak. Once economy picks up the fed has a problem. Real treasury obligations will be hoarded along with cash. When the fed runs out of real bills to drain liquidity, will it have to issue new obligations to restrict money supply growth? The mortgage crap will be inventoried until assests are sold. Higher dollar and lower bond prices(so much new paper) would mean unemployment. Crack-up boom is still year away! Adding new bills to drain liquidity?

Stopgap Measures, Strategy Implications

Taxes Taxes Taxes?

Dollar and Oil Are Manipulated by ECB and Fed

We have come a long way in this fiat. What you say we continue this parade? We can only hope that our " friends" continue to finance our inflation machine! Any short term deflation will be followed by massive inflation 6-12 months out. Right now natural rates are up, and there are plenty of reasons to continue bumping them up. Growth is going to give up the "ghost" before this mess is over!

Preparing for the Fall

The author sure is for sure about the future. Could be right! But why? The distant past projects the future or the gut is never wrong! Earnings are falling apart. Overall demand is falling. The pro would have you believe that inflation is the #1 enemy, this is far from the truth. Deflation is the actual bet. Bonds are the way to invest. The price of oil is inflationary, the gas price is recessionary. The higher the price of gas, the more demand drys up for everything else. Several other factors are going to effect the economy. The CPI is a very good look at what it measures. The core rate should turn negative as the demand for products drys up. The companies will have trouble passing on cost in this type of economy. Another worry for the fed is direction of long term rates. The housing mess demands lower rates and higher inflation to stop the bleeding. Lower rates means higher energy and food prices, and lower demand for other everything else. The increase of level 3 assets on bank balance sheets argues against this crunch being over. Conclusion is another japanese style bank crisis. The sad part is any future real growth will be assumed to be inflationary and rates will rise.

7 Reasons March Was Not the Bottom

It is funny how there is dollars piling up all over the globe. Yet fear keeps them from being reinvested back home. A logjam with several years to play out is gripping debt markets. The stock market has created enemies of its present and future investors. Dried blood in the streets! The market is cheap(5 years from now) yields and p.e. are reasonable and the fed is in panic mode. Which has more risk: A solid yielding company or a good located property. Neither 5 years out! Look to fight inflation its your best bet. own puts or some bear market funds at all times! I think oil takes a ole fashion wompin this week. and gold too. (am gold bull)

The Fed is Terrified

I think the G-7 governments should exchange 2 trillion dollars for super senior government debt. We could issue 20 year bonds at 2%! We could use proceeds to reflate banking system. We have sure got a marshall plan type of deal ahead of this country. Heck lucky we have pretty surrounding in this place, we used to call our own!

Bulls Twist Inflation into Being a Good Thing

The punch bowl has caught the roof the roof the roof on fire, some party lets let the mother fer burn, burn mother fer burn!!

Bulls Twist Inflation into Being a Good Thing

The line is the line. iif no wage inflation no true inflation. That will be the mantra going forward. The line always lets officals play dumb. Dollar carry trade changes the arguement? We are going to inflate out of it period. The fight about 5% or 25% inflation will force more massaging numbers. We all got here together! soylant green are people!! I much prefer a steel shopping cart, to a plastic one.(stronger weapon) lol

Read Between Bernanke's Lines: Things Are Going To Get Worse

MI coppa blah blah... ole BEN tried to be slick. Have big candid speech (unofficial) leak phrase, promise moon and stars, cut quarter pt, and give market finger back. It is so darn late to save economy cutting rates makes no difference!(wet powder) Raw material prices have stopped production. Producers have got to rethink costs, and fast. This period of low demand will spur gov to action, thus getting fed off the hook. LUV THOSE ELECTIONS!