Global Macro Trends in Eight Charts: The Next Crisis Will Be in Currency [View article]
The Fed can continue to post collateral with the Treasury to continue its above said activities. The amount of income received by AIG, Fannie and Freddie each day makes the press hum. It is easy street for the Fed when you dont have to mark liabilities. I dont expect anything to change for a long time. We can expect asset bubbles, but this is going to be a multi-year biggie. I dont see how the Central Bank can get out of this one, since they have lost control of short rates! It is suicide to allow long rates to "tick-up" and no way a depression acedemic will ever risk it! I feel like a crew member of the pinta or santa maria. Its a sin to expect dollar carry to grease the economy. I feel for younger pensioners.
Market Crash Imminent: Get Out While You Can [View article]
The growth rate in the market has clearly slowed. The last three quarters have been one big surprise (the first one) and two mundane. I dont believe this market can deliver earning expansion. Profits are also slowing which will effect forward ppe. The increase in stock price will bump the markets p.e. up. I believe that inflation will increase enough to effect stock prices also. How can companies increase throughput to offset the effects of higher raw material prices? Consumption is being fueled by credit, which should also increase money supply growth. The effect being pressure on interest rates. Further effecting stock prices. I could add a banking system shock, and the spector of further raise in unemployent (from recent 4.4% to 4.7%. I see a bunch of factors which my lead to stagflation. Companies are begining to stop the production lines due to high raw cost and slacking demand. Demand for govies are the last instrument in demand by foreign funds. I believe that a run from govies would be to offshore locations and not into our stock market. The bull talk is whats leading this bull markets recent run. I for one dont trust WAL-MART earnings to be reason for broad expansion of stock prices. AH a 6 month CD that yields 5% , could end up worth 17% in todays stock market enviorment.
Global Macro Trends in Eight Charts: The Next Crisis Will Be in Currency [View article]
Global Macro Trends in Eight Charts: The Next Crisis Will Be in Currency [View article]
Market Crash Imminent: Get Out While You Can [View article]
Market Crash Imminent: Get Out While You Can [View article]
Market Crash Imminent: Get Out While You Can [View article]