elwind45

Fair Value for the S&P 500? Tell Me Lies, Sweet Little Lies

Much of the good news about earnings is coming from the bottom line and not the top. Without true top line growth how long will the news be rosey? Since much of the bottom line improvement is coming from lay-offs, how long will improvements by firings last? I cant help but smile about top line growth. Any pick-up in growth should be (?) met with higher interest rates. A pickup in money velocity should panic the Fed into drastic rate increases. Since midterm elections are around the corner how much real inflation fighting will come out of the Fed? I believe there is still way to many unknowns to fight for price in either stock or bond markets. I can feel the black swan circling the punters like a vulture!

Picture of a Market Scared of Its Own Shadow

Anthems? We dont need no hollow anthems!! Just a stronger right shoulder.

Approaching Recession? It's Already Here

You can harp all you like , no way will you get official word from any official. The current administrators of national fortune will never come clean about recession. Hardly able to get anything about orderly freefall of the dollar from treasury. The mantra of denial on anything economic from washington is complete. Bush has one goal, keep it afloat. The wagons are circled and the official line is scudlow goldilocks speak. The blame game will see ole W. leave the malaise to the next guy or gal. Bush wants that teflon republican title. Funny how the republicians never take responsibility for anything but WAR and hidden taxes!

Market Crash Imminent: Get Out While You Can

4000+ stocks make up a market , look beyond the garden of eden.

Market Crash Imminent: Get Out While You Can

Oh just remember the market is only couple % from all time highs SUPERSTARS???

Market Crash Imminent: Get Out While You Can

The growth rate in the market has clearly slowed. The last three quarters have been one big surprise (the first one) and two mundane. I dont believe this market can deliver earning expansion. Profits are also slowing which will effect forward ppe. The increase in stock price will bump the markets p.e. up. I believe that inflation will increase enough to effect stock prices also. How can companies increase throughput to offset the effects of higher raw material prices? Consumption is being fueled by credit, which should also increase money supply growth. The effect being pressure on interest rates. Further effecting stock prices. I could add a banking system shock, and the spector of further raise in unemployent (from recent 4.4% to 4.7%. I see a bunch of factors which my lead to stagflation. Companies are begining to stop the production lines due to high raw cost and slacking demand. Demand for govies are the last instrument in demand by foreign funds. I believe that a run from govies would be to offshore locations and not into our stock market. The bull talk is whats leading this bull markets recent run. I for one dont trust WAL-MART earnings to be reason for broad expansion of stock prices. AH a 6 month CD that yields 5% , could end up worth 17% in todays stock market enviorment.