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  • Best Ideas For 2014: Long GCVRZ [View article]
    Thanks for the excellent advice Wilson, Arbs and sheldon!
    Jan 5 08:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ideas For 2014: Long GCVRZ [View article]
    Agreed. Everyone's responsible for their own decisions.

    Wilson, aren't you pretty risk averse? I remember you selling off some GPT because you felt there was no longer an adequate margin of safety, but isn't GCVRZ roulette in comparison? I'm curious to hear what your thoughts are on the probability of achieving the milestone. And thanks as always!
    Jan 5 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum Archive  [View instapost]
    Posted this in the other thread, but here are the GCVRZ milestone specifics: http://1.usa.gov/V5QIkF

    Does anyone know the specific launch dates? Given the countdown time limit, this is pretty vital to determining if the milestones can be achieved. I know the UK NICE is still deciding, but has Lemtrada launched in other markets?

    Also, given that the milestone has to be reached in the first year following Lemtrada's launch, does this mean only the first year of treatment sales will be counted for each country? Is the cost $60,000 for all countries?


    Excerpt from the above link:
    What is the time limit to achieve $400 million in sales for Product Sales Milestone #1?
    n For the United States of America, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy and Spain, sales achieved in the 4 calendar quarters immediately following the quarter in which Lemtrada is first sold in that country (after receipt of marketing approval in that country, including pricing and reimbursement approval, if necessary) are counted toward the $400 million sales milestone.

    n Sales in these six countries are only counted if the first commercial sale in the country occurs within 6 calendar quarters immediately following the quarter in which Product Launch for Lemtrada is deemed to occur. Product Launch is defined as the first day of the calendar quarter beginning one full calendar quarter after the end of the calendar quarter in which Lemtrada is sold in a major market.

    n Sales of Lemtrada in all other countries may also be counted toward the achievement of Product Sales Milestone #1 to the extent they occur during the 4 calendar quarter period that begins on the first anniversary of the launch of Lemtrada for treatment of multiple sclerosis.
    Jan 1 07:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ideas For 2014: Long GCVRZ [View article]
    GCVRZ sales milestone specifics:
    http://1.usa.gov/V5QIkF

    Last year, iirc, 14 of 17 FDA appeals failed so the chances of requiring new trials are high and would delay the US release of Lemtrada by 2+ years. That's if SNY decides to proceed given the cost of these new trials and the release of other competing MS drugs in the future.

    So, counting out US sales, what are the chances of achieving the milestones? Analysts were expecting $400 mill peak sales in the US alone and $700 mill annual sales by 2018. Will the FDA rejection affect other markets, including NICE's decision in the UK?
    Dec 31 10:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ideas For 2014: Long GCVRZ [View article]
    Are you looking at the right ticker? We're talking about the contingent value rights (GCVRZ) not SNY. A 61% drop is hardly mild: http://bloom.bg/JGKN2g
    Dec 31 01:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Messenger sees healthy iOS downloads, Asian usage [View news story]
    "excludes China"
    Dec 27 07:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum Archive  [View instapost]
    Does anyone know when the decision will be announced tomorrow?
    Dec 26 06:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry co-founder ends attempt to buy company [View news story]
    Lazaridis shifted all of his attention to QVI a while ago so I'm not surprised he decided to sell a portion of his shares.
    Dec 26 02:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Great Debate - Bull Vs. Bear On Gramercy Property Trust [View article]
    It's interesting to see such differing opinions on valuation and I thank you all for the insight. The recent volume and share price movement suggests someone is willing to pay a premium over Steve's estimated $3.20/share. Perhaps, with the dividend announcement, the "potential investors that have a dividend mandate" have already begun to trickle in?
    Nov 27 11:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry reveals even more doom [View news story]
    Hilarious.
    Oct 2 05:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry EPS in-line, misses on revenues [View news story]
    TMob will still have demos in their stores, but purchases are online only.
    Sep 27 09:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry EPS in-line, misses on revenues [View news story]
    They could push discounted z10s out in non-US markets where they are gaining traction. Retails left holding the bag.
    Sep 27 08:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry EPS in-line, misses on revenues [View news story]
    Cash burn from operations of $134 million... that's lower than expected. Really wanted more info on the $1 billion writedown, too bad no CC.
    Sep 27 08:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry EPS in-line, misses on revenues [View news story]
    Nothing new from pre-released info at least.
    Sep 27 07:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry cancels FQ2 CC [View news story]
    If his word is his bond... then it looks like the $9 floor has been set. Let's hope another bid comes in.
    Sep 25 11:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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